Spartman

What about too many recent volcano eruptions, especially the Hunga Tonga eruption back in 2022? Only one real heat wave so far this year, and it was last month.

Northern Indiana AFD The remnants of Beryl continue shifting northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes and eastern Ontario between today and this evening. An area of low level f-gen banding paired with a low level theta-e gradient in conjunction with large scale ascent on the western periphery of the low pressure center serves as the main forcing for the remaining rain this morning. This forcing coincides with sfc dew points around 70F, 850 mb dew points between 10 and 15C, and PWATs dropping from above 2 inches overnight to around 1.75 inch today. This allows for an additional 0.5 inch to 3 inches in the main rain band area north of US-24. 12.09 SPC HREF was still showing LPMM 24 hr rainfall totals (a realistic potential high end) of 3 to 7 inches in that swath which essentially runs from start to end. Much lower QPF totals south of US-24 reach 0.25 inch at most as the dry slot begins to move in this morning through today. Rivers have seen some impact from the rain with rises observed and forecasts taking some Kankakee and St Joseph basin rivers into action and minor flood stage heights. Some initial reports in Berrien county had 3 to 5 inch totals as early as 10pm last night. Now, as the comma head begins to move away, a 6 hr pressure rise area moves through the forecast area starting around 13 and moving out around 21z or so this evening. At the same time, a negative theta-e advection airmass in the form of both cold and dry advection takes place midday into the afternoon. So the question becomes do we clear out the clouds enough to start getting enough mixing into the low level jet. With the comma head lingering over areas west of IN-15 this morning am leery of clearing cloud cover too much yet. We`re also missing that boundary like we have in the spring/fall months to really get the isentropic down glide for a wind advisory event that we`re used to. As such, gusts between 30 and 40 mph could become common with sporadic gusts to around 45 mph during this period. With how wet the ground is north of US-24, could see sporadic wind damage reports from this as the moist ground is loosened and trees topple over. Have handled this with an SPS.

Definitely a taste of Fall tomorrow. Highs are only in the mid-70s with cloud cover and rain from Beryl.

With the remnants of Beryl coming, tomorrow kicks off what's going to be a bit of a dreary stretch the next few days.

Rain held off until just after the annual parade. Got 0.36" so far. A day of free swimming got cancelled because of the rain.

Not going to be a good start to the 4th of July when there are no weather stations reporting since around 7am.

Topped out at 91 before the rain came. Going to be a sucky 4th of July tomorrow with storms and cloud cover.

Weather Underground/TWC and GFS want the 4th of July to be a total washout. Either way, not going to be a good night for fireworks.

Only got 0.08"

Going to be a suckfest today with all the cloud cover and upcoming storms

Looking stormy for the 4th of July now

Heat wave over. 89'd today

TWC's bullish on the cloud cover for Tuesday and Wednesday. If there's going to be a lack of sunshine of those couple of days, they might as well lower their highs.

12z GFS for next Saturday:

If a cold summer followed an El Nino winter (which doesn't happen often like 1992), then expect the upcoming winter to be either Neutral or a 2nd-year Niño.

Ending up with below-normal rainfall for the month, despite 15 days with measurable rainfall for May. Definitely in for a crappy weekend to start June tomorrow.

https://www.x.com/commoditywx/status/1796588170747969744

If that really happens

The first half of the month looks to be dominated by troughing and possibly blocking. GFS also hinting a cutoff low starting around the middle of next week. NAO, PNA, AO looking bad for the next couple of weeks. NAO: PNA: AO:

Maybe start trending toward Neutrals. Feeling this is just not the year for a Nina. Today's Nino 3.4 chart seems to be off the wall.

From the Mid-Atlantic sub: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60238-may-medium-long-range-outlook/?do=findComment&comment=7310446 Models have a cooler start to June with -NAO trying to develop.. If the ridge over the Davis Strait ends up verifying, that would be good for my N. Atlantic SST prediction of wintertime NAO state, but still a long ways to go (the index measures through September.) I also think a ridge is going to try to develop over the West coast through June, then it may work its way to the Midwest by July and August then the east by the end of the Summer.. there is a chance it could come here sooner though, but GEFS looks troughy through Day 15.. June's looking like a write-off

Looks cooler than normal for the final few days of the month.