Spartman

Like June 2023?

First month of meteorological summer is near. Looks like we virtually start up warm after the month begins, but it looks to be a head-fake as it goes downhill again by the end of next week.

12z Euro: 12z GFS:

Let the can-kicking begin. You're welcome. https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1927771823401230607 BAM bringing up 2014 in one of his recent tweets, especially for the upcoming month. https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1927872832618336344 In other news, the SOI has had daily significant rises over the past several days. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 29 May 2025 1016.49 1012.15 21.54 2.95 5.11 28 May 2025 1016.80 1012.00 25.07 2.16 4.87 27 May 2025 1016.16 1010.80 29.36 0.86 4.61 26 May 2025 1015.39 1010.80 23.46 -0.51 4.31 25 May 2025 1014.17 1010.55 16.03 -1.20 4.14 24 May 2025 1014.48 1009.90 23.38 -1.77 4.09 23 May 2025 1012.50 1010.10 6.68 -2.75 3.88 22 May 2025 1011.49 1011.10 -8.71 -3.23 3.82

Garbage over the next couple days starting tomorrow, but a slow warm-up by next weekend to end the month.

From IND's Long Term: .Next week... The overall weather pattern begins to shift next week as the upper jet becomes more west-southwesterly aloft and the storm track lifts northward into Indiana. Closer to the surface, high pressure begins to lose its influence over the state as a developing area of low pressure in the Plains and associated frontal boundaries lift northward into Indiana. Low pressure is expected to ride along the warm front extending over the Ohio Valley and provide perhaps the best opportunity for more widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. The focus for greatest convective coverage will again be over southern counties in closest proximity to the warm front and track of the surface low. By Wednesday, an upper low will be in place over the Upper Great Lakes while Indiana is in in the wake of the passing surface low to the east. While it is difficult to forecast subtle waves within the upper jet this far out, this pattern would support continued mostly cloudy conditions with showers as weak waves rotate around the upper low to the north. Keeping the forecast more pessimistic mid week based on the overall weather pattern. Confidence decreases mid to late next week and into the following weekend as some longer range models have been consistent in showing another cut off low pattern developing. Guidance usually struggles with patterns featuring weakly forced systems, so confidence remains low in the finer details this far out. For now, keeping a close eye on the potentially cool and wet pattern going into early June as any warm up back to normal may be fairly brief. Should the forecast pan out with highs remaining below 70 through at least Tuesday here at Indy, this would mark a consecutive string of 8 straight days of sub-70 degree weather extending back to this past Tuesday 5/20. The last time Indianapolis experienced this for such a long period of time this late in the Spring was from 5/25 to 6/2 in 1889. The search for a return to more persistent warmth likely is still 7-8 days out and possibly beyond with 80s likely to return by early in the week of June 2. Yep, another cutoff low in the middle of next week heading into the first week of June. So far, DAY and CMH have had 15 days with measurable rainfall for this month as of yesterday. It will add up a bit next week. The record for most days with measurable rainfall for DAY is 21 days in May 2003 while CMH's record is 22 days in May 2004. Could be creeping toward the record by the end of next week.

Very few, if anyone at all like JB, in May. Supposed to be stuck in the mid to upper 50s here tomorrow. Hell, not even in the Northeast because they're expecting a late-season Nor'easter tomorrow. https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1925166136024600730

GFS says it's gonna be rather chilly come Friday morning

+1 Currently have a departure of +1.2 for this month so far, as of May 18th, but the upcoming cooler than normal stretch this week into next week would make May the coldest month of Spring 2025 by the time the month is over.

Probably picking the wrong time for that in the Elwood area. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 70. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Monday Night Isolated showers before 8pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High near 62. East southeast wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tuesday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 55. East wind 8 to 11 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. West wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Wednesday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. West northwest wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. Sunday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.

A very wet 2025 altogether, perhaps

YOU SHUT UP! Well, excuse me if I ever posted on this forum in the first place! I DIDN'T COME HERE TO BE INSULTED! Hope you get banned for this kind of comment, you troll. This is not the place for these type of insults.

We may have already turned on the faucet. Same thing happened in 2011. Several wet months that year, especially the Spring and Fall. One of the wettest years ever for many, followed by the dreaded Winter 2011-12.

Feels like we've been cheated out a Spring this year. Too many cutoff lows this month, for sure. September 2011 had something similar when two cutoff lows, combined, dominated over half the days of the month resulting in a record wet September. Looks like it may very continue into next month. The end of the 00z Euro run: Also, the MJO's been stuck in the Circle of Death phase all month. According to JB, the last time MJO's stuck in the Circle of Death the entire month of May was back in May 2012, though that was followed by a very hot summer. https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1922477577555366262

Wouldn't be fine when JB officially starts talking about Memorial Day weekend, as of this morning. https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1922282897592971662 CFS v2 and CPC agree. CFS v2: CPC: There are a lot of times that cold Memorial Day weekends have been followed by cooler than normal summers like 2003, 1996, or 1992. Also, the NAO and PNA will be negative by that time while the AO is near neutral.

This year is shot. Ready for 2026 already.

Not fine according to 18z GFS. Thursday May 22 (some spots stuck in the mid to upper 40s): The day before Memorial Day (stuck in the low to mid 50s):

6-10 day: 8-14 day: Just in time for Memorial Day weekend :sarcasm:

8-14 day: Lookin' wet 12z Euro: 18z GFS: Judah bringing up Greenland Blocking leading to a chilly 4th week of May as the large disruption by March's polar vortex comes to an end. https://x.com/judah47/status/1920869876068970801 Another Omega Block shaping up the week before Memorial Day weekend? https://x.com/WxRiskGrains/status/1921357712945734046

Speaking of Memorial Day, the 18z GFS run has a bit of an ugly look for this Memorial Day weekend with a potential cutoff low and being stuck in the 50s Saturday May 24th: Sunday May 25th:

12z Euro: 12z GFS: 12z Canadian: Both 12z GFS and Euro runs are hinting a cutoff low and blocking pattern just before Memorial Day weekend. Quite trainwrecky, for sure. 12z GFS: 12z Euro: This month really needs a Reset button.