Spartman

Around the 5th Anniversary of the Memorial Day tornadoes

TWC's calling for a high of 72 for Memorial Day. Want a bad Memorial Day? Go back to Memorial Day 1996 when temps were in the 50's all day.

Rainfall is overperforming. Daily total so far is 0.93" as of 9am. Record is 2.20" in 1974. Might as well get at least 2 inches today.

Or else, 2024-25 would end up as Neutral instead of a Niña.

Today turned out to be what seems to be the sunniest day for the month.

Time to stick a fork in May?

Might as well be in some kind of blocking pattern at this rate. Very few, if any, dry days to come by over the next couple of weeks. May 2003 all over again. May 2003 had a record 21 days with measurable rainfall.

6-10 day: 8-14 day:

86 here. A prolonged active stretch begins today, so the upcoming week will be a wash.

Nothing today

Topped out at 84

This was the 2nd completely dry weekend for 2024.

Same here

It looks like at least the first half of this month will be a washout. #april2011redux

White on that map JB posted actually represents completely overcast. Euro is caving to the GFS.

Euro according to JB:

NWS really got hijacked by trolls on social media over that.

TWC:

Accuweather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/solar-eclipse-2024/total-solar-eclipse-cloud-forecast-where-will-clouds-spoil-the-show/1636042

NWS IND .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 It is now about a week out from eclipse day and as stated in previous iterations of this discussion, a few signals can be deciphered from long range guidance. As mentioned in the discussion above, a deepening/occluding low pressure system is anticipated to develop over the eastern US. As this low deepens, it should act to bottle up the upstream wave pattern. This can be seen in guidance as a deepening trough over the western US. It`s this trough that could be the determining factor as to what kind of weather we see on Monday April 8th. Taking a step back, global teleconnections show strongly negative phases in both the NAO and AO. This means that the synoptic scale will dictate our weather going forward, and with a very strong and occluded low over the east coast...it is likely that the position and longevity of this system will determine the evolution of the west coast trough. Latest ensemble guidance depicts both the eastern and western troughs becoming highly amplified with an increasingly squeezed ridge in between. A flow pattern similar to a classic omega block looks to take shape by Friday. With strongly negative teleconnections, a pattern featuring blocking is not a surprise. Guidance begins to diverge over the weekend as models struggle to depict how the aforementioned features interact within the bottled up flow. Guidance typically struggles in blocking patterns, and can be too fast with synoptic-scale features. This can be seen in recent trends with today`s system that has been gradually shifting westward with time. It`s tough to downscale this pattern into a cloud cover forecast for the 8th. The primary questions are how much does the occluded east coast low affect the upstream pattern, and in what form the western trough ejects eastward. As guidance comes into greater consensus, the answers to these questions will likewise come into focus. Stay tuned for further updates. Might as well stick a fork in seeing the eclipse on Monday

00z GFS:

Only got 0.02" of rain tonight. This March ends up with below-normal rainfall for the month, but April looks to be a different story. Also a warm March, but not warm enough to be one of the top 10 warmest.