Spartman

Now to wait if Euro eventually caves to GFS. Even AFDs like IND or ILX seem to have doubts about late next week. IND: While heights will increase through the week, NBM output appears to be too warm late in the period, and have made some downward adjustments there. Will still be hot and sticky, particularly given the relative lack of 90 degree weather thus far this season, but at this point there`s very little about the synoptic pattern that screams major heat. ILX: Beyond Sunday, there`s actually quite a bit of uncertainty in how the pattern will evolve. There`s definitely an overall warming trend evident in the low resolution ensemble forecast (LREF) system, which is the combined ensembles of the GFS (called the GEFS: 30 models called "members"), ECMWF (called the EPS: 50 members), and CMC (CMCE: 20 members). In fact, NBM`s deterministic forecast, which is essentially the mean of the biased corrected LREF, brings high temperatures up from 89 degF Monday to 94 degF by Thursday in Lincoln. However, the 10th to 90th percentile range (the observed high temperature should fall into this range 80% of the time if its properly calibrated) spans 10+ degF Monday and nearly 15 degF by Wednesday, suggesting significant spread in the ensemble. As has been the case the past several days, the GEFS continues to be the outlier of the three ensemble systems comprising the LREF (and ultimately feeding NBM), with most of its members yielding maxTs > 95 and upwards of 20% of its members depicting 105+ degF highs at KAAA by next weekend. These outliers (some of which are > 110!) are skewing the data and pulling the ensemble mean (and hence NBM) up above what would seem reasonable given the moisture flux which could be expected from agricultural evapotranspiration this time of year (even given our still semi-dry soils). So...temperatures were nudged 30% to the 25th percentile to bring them back in line with what the rest of the LREF is suggesting for Thursday and Friday. Even so, our highs could be far too warm should we get convection - which the deterministic models are suggesting could crest the ridge at any time during the upcoming work week. Convective action could not only bring a very temporary relief to the heat, but it would also yield outflow boundaries which could push the periphery of the ridge back towards the south -- possibly preventing it from building in nearly as much as what the models have been suggesting. We`ll continue to monitor and update the forecast (and discussion) with our latest thinking. IWX: While it become notably warmer mid and late this week (especially compared to today`s temperatures) there is concensus among the team here today that the combination of falling heights aloft, clouds and storms around, and even a hint of cold air advection aloft as a trough moves through, high temperatures Thursday and Friday might be overdone. Highs in the upper-80s are certainly likely, but it may be challenging to break too far into the 90s. ECMWF offers a 90th percentile forecast high temperature Friday while the in-house NBM is near 75th percentile; perhaps too warm.

Pretty impressive on the 12z Euro, but the 12z GFS lost the heat.

Early last week, there was a Bering Sea Ridge. I believe that was the first occurrence of it for this Summer. And yet, another Bering Sea Ridge is forecast to happen within a couple of days.

Using the Bering Sea Rule recently?

This month is shot. Going through the whole month of July without a 90-degree day is an absolute lock. We've maxed out on the highest temp of the month earlier last week. If we're not going to get any real heat, bring on Fall. I'm surprised Scott Sabol on Twitter has not brought up anything about the recent overdue ridging in the Bering Sea that has been occurring since Tuesday. Backloaded heat in August, anyone?

SOI has been positive for 13 consecutive days. For several days, models have been consistent on a Bering Sea ridge that started forming yesterday and is supposed to last until the weekend. Today's 12z GFS: Last night's 00z Euro:

Not our year

2024 will be rockin'

89'd today. Supposed to happen again tomorrow. Highest it's going to get for July unless something changes during the 2nd half of the month.

Only hit 90 a couple of times earlier in the month to prevent a shutout in June. A July without a 90 may very well be in store.

89'd to finish off the month. June ended with both below-normal rainfall and below-normal temperatures. First colder-than-normal June since 2006.

We're off to a prolonged wet start to the month of July. July '92 redux, anyone?

Only got a trace today.

Accuweather says we'll be dealing with the persistent smoky skies again tomorrow, even with whatever storms come through tonight and tomorrow. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/when-will-the-air-quality-improve-in-the-midwest-northeast/1550636

Frostfern in the Drought 2023 thread is already starting to stick a fork in this summer because of the smoke.

We may very well deal with that again tomorrow.

Definitely a day of suicide weather, near the end of friggin June. A dry day wasted.

Hottest month of the year. Can't be possibly as worse as June, right?

Only got 0.15", so far.

Explains all that blocking that has pretty much killed this month and shut off the heat just after June began.

Tight range

This narrow of a temperature band for the next 5 days, especially in June.