Spartman

Something interesting on the horizon after heading into August? According to the Bering Sea:

Set a daily rainfall record yesterday: With only halfway through the month, rainfall is already above normal for this month with a current total of 4.12" as of this morning. Let's hope the 2nd half doesn't have any more rain that would end up being enough to make this month one of the top 10 wettest Julys on record.

2009? 1992?

Fall is coming. Hit 75 here.

CVG had its 5th wettest June on record.

Hit 90 for the second time this year while CVG got 89'd. The convection did a great job dying off before it even got here.

If only if it were to be dry and sunny.

JB is rooting on a chilly start to July. If the GFS verifies, that could be the worst pattern to start off July in a long time.

Reached 88 so far this afternoon, but temps just dropped to 87 as of 3pm.

Let's hope what JB says about this 4th of July doesn't come true. The 00z GooFuS has this for the 4th of July weekend: July 2nd: July 3rd: This 4th of July:

Completely overcast today thanks to the stratiform and debris clouds from the recent Super MCS. Second time that happened this month. Can't seem to go at least a month without an overcast day this year. With very little rain today, this was an absolute waste of any of the dry time. We may very well be repeat that tomorrow before the heat is on the day thereafter.

Only got a hundredth of an inch from today's Super MCS thanks to the persistent cloud cover the entire day today.

Another good way to kill Summer with that much rainfall.

Had a good SOI rise from 6/13 to 6/15, but now we see a massive SOI crash from 6/18 to today. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 Jun 2021 1013.56 1014.60 -16.38 -2.66 1.71 19 Jun 2021 1014.21 1014.05 -7.94 -2.08 2.00 18 Jun 2021 1015.23 1013.65 2.04 -1.55 2.19 17 Jun 2021 1015.96 1013.35 9.28 -1.41 2.23 16 Jun 2021 1016.13 1012.40 17.15 -1.76 2.10 15 Jun 2021 1016.19 1011.45 24.25 -2.01 1.88 14 Jun 2021 1015.55 1011.95 16.24 -2.08 1.58 13 Jun 2021 1014.99 1013.10 4.22 -1.76 1.34 12 Jun 2021 1014.54 1013.05 1.41 -1.32 1.28 11 Jun 2021 1013.54 1012.70 -3.16 -1.07 1.24 10 Jun 2021 1013.74 1012.30 1.05 -0.78 1.14 9 Jun 2021 1013.33 1012.10 -0.42 -0.53 1.06 Sign of a good transient warm-up in the works for sometime in early July before going back to troughing afterwards?

Shades of 2009/1992 6-10 day: 8-14 day: Even though today's CFSv2 weeklies look like this for Weeks 3-4:

Not as the Memorial Day 2019 beast.

Topped out at 92.

Temps really overperformed. Hit 91 at 4pm. First 90 of the year.

Only year Dayton didn't hit 90 until August was in 2008, which was the latest first on record. There had been only 3 years Dayton didn't hit 90 at all: 1958, 2000, and 2004. With the cicadas around, we might as well head towards a 2004 redux. We'd waste a hot pattern if we didn't tag 90 at all, just like a cold pattern in the Winter being wasted with very little snow. Even though BAMWX is hinting potential big heat late this month into early July, here's something from our coldmeister JB. JB is apparently hugging the Euro instead of the GooFuS this time.

ZZZZZZZ 6-10 day: 8-14 day: BAMWX has something about beyond the 8-14 day outlook.

Starting to trend cool and dry on today's 8-14 day outlook.

July will be rockin'. Heck, DAY, CVG, and Indy all haven't even been 89'd yet this year and doesn't seem to look that way for the foreseeable future. Looks like this week and beyond are going to be a wash as we will be under the influence of a cutoff low that was responsible for the soaking rains over the past week down in Texas. The GooFuS is even hinting this for next weekend.

We're now in phase 7 of the MJO, but it's about to fall into the COD soon. For this time of the year, Phase 7 into the COD would mean cooler-than-normal temperatures and equal-chances for above-normal or below-normal rainfall for the foreseeable future. 6-10 outlook: 8-14 outlook: With no signs of siginificant heat in the forseeable future and the potential of drier-than-normal conditions, these outlooks say ZZZZZZZZ.