Chinook

Earl had some sort of a disruption (Eyewall replacement cycle?) as it passed closest Bermuda at roughly 03z. Bermuda's airport had wind gusts up to 41 knots. Now, the eye has undergone some changes. At the time of this image, it looks like the eye is a heart-shape last night NHC discussion new discussion

Closer to the -Rocky- Mountains, the much-needed cold front is moving in to central Wyoming right now with cooler temperatures, rain showers, and north winds with gusts over 30 knots at Douglas and 20 knots at Casper.

Here's a tropical storm that's near a mountain... Tropical Storm Kay, HREF maximum precipitation of the model ensemble is up to 5"-7" east of San Diego if I read this correctly

HWRF model version of Kay (6 hour forecast). The NHC has this at 75 knots/85 mph

It's up to 102 degrees in Fort Collins with one local observation. Sheesh, is this September or July 4th?

this is 6:20am for them. The eye of the storm has been close to Busan, now with winds shifting to the north-northwest.

Wind gusts at Busan, South Korea, bumped up to minimal hurricane force, 64 knots RKPK 051900Z 11035G64KT 1600 +RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC030 27/25 Q0979 RKPK 051800Z 11037G47KT 3200 +RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC030 27/25 Q0984

This is the only time I've been able to use Korean radar (available through the US Military bases, I believe) to track a typhoon. Typhoon Hinnamnor has tracked right by Jeju Island, South Korea, close to the forecasts. JTWC had the intensity at 100 knots at a time of 12z. west Jeju Island: RKPM 051348Z 36042G063KT 3200 -RA BR BKN005 BKN080 25/24 A2871 RMK CIG005RKPM 051027Z 10036G067KT 3200 RA BR OVC010 25/24 A2896 RMK CIG010

some breezes in the US Virgin Islands. The radar loop shows weak rotation in the northeast sector shown here.

The JTWC latest update says 95 knots in the vicinity of Busan. That does sound quite bad. Also, consider Korea is pretty far north and does not get too many tropical cyclones.

Typhoon Hinnamnor regained 85 knot strength and an eye showed up recently on infrafred imagery When Typhoon Hinnamnor approaches South Korea, it might be interesting to use GRLevel3/ Radarscope to view these two radar locations in South Korea.

KFTG radar is working again after mechanical systems upgrades.

Fort Collins had the 2nd warmest August on record, that is, 73.8, degrees, and it slightly beats August 2020, at 73.5 degrees. It wasn't very rainy at Fort Collins or Loveland. If I had been in Loveland, the nearest CoCoRAHS would have been 0.67" of rain. Denver had the 3rd warmest August, 76.1 degrees, which was cooler than August 2020 and August 2011, both 77.0 degrees. 1.45" of rain. areas of south Denver: 2.19" of rain At the place I'm at now in Ohio, it dumped rain several times in the month of August. In fact, I just saw 7.5x as much rain as I would have seen in Loveland. There's not a hint of brown grass. The 75 dew points have gone away, and, of course, there was not a record-setting warm or cold temperature at all. On a side note, Toledo got to a dew point of 76 on two non-consecutive days in August, that ties for the highest dew point I've seen in 20+ years. I sort of saw a decent squall line on Monday. Maybe that storm system could have been classified as a derecho across Indiana. So that brings back a lot of nice memories of getting 45-50mph winds right after the air was just muggy.

A second named storm could get going in about 108 hours near south Mexico

Super Typhoon Hinnamnor tracked to the southwest quite a few miles today. It was relatively close to Okinawa around 24 hours ago. The 00z advisory from JTWC has it up to 140 knots. It is east of Taiwan. It is not right on Ishigaki island. (part of Japan, I believe.) Now that's a lot of wind.

various severe storms in Illinois and Indiana

it's coming my direction

Radar VWP measured 60kt (69mph) at the surface

NWS-Fort Worth specific information from today

cool picture

Here is the CoCoRAHS precipitation since July 1st at Centennial, south of Denver. Not too bad, considering how badly the Denver area needed rain.

Here's something kind of off topic. I checked CIPS analogs two years ago (September 2020) to see if the forecast weather pattern resembled -September- snowstorms of the past. It did.

for those interested, the geomagnetic activity is pretty high tonight. Space weather prediction center seems to predict weak auroras right now but I don't know why not strong auroras.

Model ensembles and the NWS show a higher chance for maybe 1"-2" of rainfall above normal for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico. (note: Tropical Tidbits plot is for Day-3 to Day-9)

Precip from Denver metro area. There was up to 2.29" in the southeast sector (Foxfield? Aurora?)