Chinook

continuation of Boston TX tornado

large tornado debris signature at Bagwell, TX

damage to homes at Powderly, Texas

Tornado debris possible at Honobia/Pickens Oklahoma (this storm)

Very rural eastern Oklahoma (Fort Smith AR radar)

I think this was the tornado ( a while ago) northwest of Paris TX next to the Red River

first thunder/heavy rain of the day at Denton

Here is the HRRR model (00z) with the SCP with radar overlay for late afternoon tomorrow.

The fateful day of November 10th, 1975 compared to the upcoming weather situation on Saturday. The Edmund Fitzgerald Storm went from 1000mb near Wichita, Kansas to 984mb in Lake Superior in 24 hours. Our current weather situation will have a low of 1004-1006mb near Wichita, Kansas moving toward 987mb to near La Crosse Wisconsin within 24 hours, and then moving to Lake Superior as shown.

HRRR updraft helicity tracks up to 08z Saturday

The new Day-2 outlook has 10% hatched tornado probabilities and 30% wind probabilities including the region of Dallas to the Red River, Texarkana.

Hurricane Martin getting caught by the cold air aloft. The GFS has 100 kt winds close to the ocean surface as this transitions.

HRRR has band of moderate snow/rain at Denver at 22z (4:00PM) tomorrow (temperature is 37)

75-80 degrees up north

day 2/day 3

Models have this merging with the mid latitude trough to produce maybe 927mb near Greenland. I wonder if that's the sort of freak storm, that, sunk dozens of ships of Europeans going back and forth to North America in the 1700s and such. HWRF- large grid

I found one prickly pear cactus on the Oak Openings soil years ago, not sure if it was early 2000s or something. Then I moved to a place that had prickly pear cactus, (and only that type.) The Rocky Mountain foothills at ~5100 ft had prickly pear cactus.

Yes. It's kind of funny to see the perhaps specifically-planted white pine in there. The forest shouldn't have pine. It was my favorite outdoor place before the Rocky Mountains.

Here are some pics from about a week ago. I haven't seen the hardwoods change color for the last 16 years. The western cities had a relative few maples in town, but overall there were non-hardwoods. There were ash trees in the west, which apparently aren't here due to the emerald ash borer. The cottonwoods out west were bright yellow if you didn't get a nasty frost, but also could become brown quickly. The oranges were kind of absent out west. The aspens planted in town were a nice yellow. It was occasionally nice to see the aspens in the natural mountain environment, but the thing is, I missed the maple trees!

The 06z NAM has 1-4" of snow east of Greeley and east of DIA this week. The GFS/Canadian/ECMWF have amounts around 1" near and east of I-25.

Guess what? Maybe time for a winter thread. The models have some agreement on this cold air mass and higher chance of snow for the mountains on Thursday night, with some possibilities for snow on the Plains.

Major Hurricane Roslyn is close to the coast, near Puerto Vallarta. Intensity is 115 kt. Here is a segment of the discussion from 3:00PM Mountain time today (Oct 23)

A long, long time ago, the GFS predicted this 982 mb low in Nebraska. It's amazing how close it looks to the forecast for tomorrow. It's also amazing the GFS existed so long ago.

There are less than 10mph winds at Fort Collins this afternoon, with summer-like temperatures. Meanwhile, it is snowy, rainy and windy in parts of the Mountain West today. There are high wind and fire weather concerns for tomorrow on the Plains. The first snow, and by that I mean, only a winter weather advisory, has been posted for areas over 9000 ft at the Front Range in the near future. I guess the forecast has finally gotten to the point where there are winter storm warnings for the west, i.e. San Juan Mountains. say goodbye to summertime-type views like this

Wow, I actually didn't see this storm until today because it's south of the normal USA maps, and I assumed nothing was happening in the tropics.