Maestrobjwa

This is why I'm starting to become skeptical that a legit moderate niño is gonna make a difference.

Definitely gonna take something a bit flukey--Aside from an almost extinct clipper, I don't know what could even get us on the board. A front end thump deal maybe...Record for latest snowfall is Feb 21st. I don't know what happened in 1973, but it feels like we'd be hard pressed to get it, lol

And after that...it's pretty much a shutout pattern, isn't it? All I saw on the EPS and GEFS earlier was +NAO far as the model eye can go, smh

There's a reason I deleted that post, lol

Can't delete the TV or the outdoors though, lolol (man somebody gonna pounce on the kitty litter bit I know it, haha)

Why...was there a se ridge? Well 2020 was the raging +AO...I'm sure psu can fill in the rest, lol

Warm neutral is prob better than nina.... Yeah but if neutrals are no longer working (the last two were awful), and a very weak niño a la 2018-19 doesn't work...we better hope for a legit one!

Warm neutral isn't gonna do much good...If we're already trending warmer, doesn't that make a case for a more established niño next winter?

Random/slightly rambling thoughts properly placed in banter thread: Man I'm tired of gettin' depressed over this weather. I'm through!! Now I can't drive 3 hours to the slopes because a) I've never been skiing and don't know a thing about it or know anyone who does it. b) I have musical commitments on weekends. I mean I might be able to do a Friday-Saturday afternoon MAYBE. But again, nobody I know does it. Man it's the acceptance! May not be able to anow anymore, who knows! Maybe we finally just boil over and become the dang south I don't know. But distraction with other things isn't enough: Because you can be doing something completely unrelated...but all you gotta do is see a forecast, step outside, see the kitty litter for melting ice still sitting there...there are reminders EVERYWHERE. So it's not just distraction" You literally gotta be okay with how things are. It requires an actual peace with it--not just throwing yourself into other things (at least...that hasn't been working for me). Now of course when Spring arrived it's not as much of an issue, because the natural progression of things is warmer (be it in April or not until May, lol). So it fades between Spring and late Fall. But now you can't even look to enso because even if the niño does develop it still might not work despite being historically our best shot (unless it's an overwhelming super nino). Crap is so broken... So again, somehow you have to make peace with how things are, that if it doesn't snow another flake in our lives, that it will still be OK. It could also be a perspective thing as well. That when we're in the midst of winter staring at models, watching threats go by...there's the illusion that it's bigger than it actually is! It is indeed "just snow"...but You actually have to put it in the proper place. .....All this is way easier said than done, lol But not impossible I hope...

Oh for just a little bit of blocking to keep the high there!!

So this run does it only come north because of the dang GL low? Lol

Oh shoot I forgot that was today! Happy Birthday to a one-of-a-kind genius. I'll always be biased to Beethoven, of course, but Mozart had his own genius. And he wrote so much in such a brief life! And that last year he reached a whole new level with the last three symphonies, the clarinet concerto, and the Requiem. Oh if he had lived a tad longer what could've been! But...not quite meant to be. Brought so much to music--Happy Birthday Mozart!

Hard to trust the gfs with anything right now. 4 runs today..all wildly different Absolutely abysmal. This has to be the worst it's been the last 7-8 years my goodness

We don't talk about Warmo no-no-no...

Nice!! Have fun up there!

Answering here since we already went way off the banter track, lol Haha Wow really? That's a really funny coincidence! Yeah I find it has the least blowback if you miss a dose too (was on Effexor before this and missing a dose SUCKED. Yeah it was better for the mild OCD but it just wasn't worth it and overall symptoms weren't steady) Lexapro has definitely has worked best--hope it works for you too! @mappy Agreed--I'm actually really glad we've been having these discussions the last couple days. We absolutely do have to keep working on removing the stigma. I'm hopeful that society, slowly but surely, is finally starting to make progress here. But still a ways to go. Mental health and therapy are so often used as punchlines. (not to say we sufferers don't laugh at ourselves often--because ya kinda have to to stay above it, lol) But just the jokes made in ignorance and condescension like they're not "real problems" are the ones that hurt. It's so often viewed as a sign of weakness that you can't work through the stuff on your own...and that in turn perpetuates further shame, and then folks don't get the help they really need! We gotta know that it's OKAY. This conversation in this forum alone is a prime example. There are more people suffering than we may realize. Thanks for making room for the discussion!

Man that is so dumb

So 18z ICON time?

Hey a mod got loose so so did we But yes, agreed

Hey 12z knocked down any fledgling delusions of grandeur...nowhere else to go but up, lol

Yooooo it feels like they modeled Heimlich after this species...lol

Ohhh it most certainly does. Mind not right, life not right. Been struggling with depression, anxiety, ADD, mild (undoagnosed) ocd...so I feel that, and sorry you've had to struggle with it to. From the looks of it you are certainly not alone here on this forum. For me, the best thing has been Lexapro. I've bounced around other antidepressants, but that one is the most steady (it was actually the first thing they gave me as a teen). Glad you've found something that's worked for ya, man.

If they aren't wooly indicators of snow we're not interested

Ah so that's where his kids are

Indeed--As psu and others have alluded to, the upside scenario is gonna be a bit of a tight balance. Models probably aren't gonna figure out the exact timing of the confluence and such from Day 6/7. Interesting enough window nonetheless (low bar to meet, lol)