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high risk

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by high risk

  1. Agreed, but really hoping that area to the southwest doesn't pivot hard to the northeast. Even with a lull, it would get really bad if that moves over the areas that have already been drowned this evening.
  2. Still very intrigued by Wednesday. Still some fail scenarios: best storms stay north in PA, best wind fields are further west, instability is lacking..... but some of the CAM solutions are quite good in terms of discrete cells and show some impressive low-level shear.
  3. I was just coming in to post the same thing. The NAM/NAM3 and extrapolated HRRR and some of the HiResWindows look very interesting for Wednesday. Hodographs look impressive, and this certainly gets our attention:
  4. Very concerned about the areas that got crushed last night for the week ahead. Multiple chances for more large rain totals this week, perhaps as soon as very late tonight.
  5. I don't know what to think about the overnight. Several of the 00z CAMs bring some heavy rain up through DC and even to those of us further north, but I'm not sure if they really have a handle on everything. Perhaps they're misplacing the ongoing convection too far north? That said, the outflow surging north out of southern MD makes me think that things could erupt further north in the next couple of hours.
  6. Tuesday and Wednesday each yielded a surprisingly high number of SVR reports in this area. There were certainly a couple of particularly notable cells with higher-end swaths of damage, but the coverage of reports was still impressive. But I agree that high CAPE and moderate DCAPE are more than compensating for very weak shear. I'd certainly be surprised if we didn't get at least one round of TC remnants up this way in the next 6-8 weeks.
  7. It's probably just my fading memory, but I can't recall such an extremely active week like this with so little shear.
  8. It's up around 900 or so. Was it that much higher on previous days? Regardless, that's enough today to still have downburst issues, especially given the high CAPE.
  9. I'm expecting something similar to Wednesday, as have a similar combination of high CAPE and fairly high downdraft CAPE but no shear. Storms will pulse, and there will be some impressive wind events, but it shouldn't be anything too organized.
  10. Heavy shower has strengthened into a thunderstorm now as it moved to my east. Moderate rain and distant thunder here. Seems to be a developing signal for some stronger winds as the cell moves across Anne Arundel county.
  11. Winds definitely hit severe criteria in southern Howard County. Wow. Power went off but has thankfully returned.
  12. That's a nasty wind signal over Silver Spring now. Hearing that it was pretty bad as it passed through Bethesda.
  13. I think that the warnings were for the surging outflow, but new storms are now firing on that outflow boundary. Tricky day to forecast, as the lack of shear keeps allowing the outflow to surge way out ahead of the storms, so we rely on re-development for the downstream threats.
  14. I think that the issue with the HRRR being dry today (and for the past couple of days) is that it's overmixing the boundary layer, and the dew points out ahead of the storms are too low.
  15. I definitely expect one. Totally agree with SPC that the shear is completely lame, but it's clear that we have a shortwave approaching at the right time of day into an environment with good instability and downdraft CAPE. And the fact that yesterday overperformed in a fairly similar setup will definitely factor in to the decision to box us.
  16. This is total hindsight, but a severe box covering northern VA, central MD, and southeast PA would have easily verified today. I don't blame SPC for being bearish on the chances for organized severe here, given the lousy deep layer shear, but a good amount of downdraft CAPE seems to have led to an overachieving event.
  17. Some fairly good agreement of some "partially organized" storms advancing west to east across the metro area around dinner time. The HRRR is somewhat of the dry outlier, but it can't be ignored that most of its cycles yesterday were dry for this area.
  18. pretty good support in the CAMs for a line of heavy showers on the front later this evening for those north and northeast of DC.
  19. I think this is the main opportunity, as that batch will likely reduce the instability, and there will likely be some subsidence behind this feature. Can’t rule out some stronger cells popping up again this evening, but having a quick intensification of the approaching system (which seems possible but not likely?) seems the best chance for more organized severe. That’s certainly what the HRRR has been showing.
  20. Same. Might as well issue the warnings for eastern Howard County now…..
  21. We’ll see what details come out of the guidance today, but this right now feels like a setup for tomorrow in which we waste really good shear with debris from a dying Midwest MCS.
  22. I'm modestly intrigued by Sunday. It's clear unclear how much instability will be available, but deep layer shear looks respectable. There isn't much agreement on how intense storms will be or what the coverage will look like, but the CAMs have overall trended towards at least scattered storms in the area later Sunday. At this point, I'd just be happy with some rain.
  23. big-time outflow boundary passage here in southern Howard County. Gusts definitely exceeding 30 mph. Not sure if I'm going to cash in on some rain.
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