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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    I'm as skeptical as you are about round 2, especially given model trends, but I'm still surprised that they did this. The recent MD talked about the threat later this evening, but I'm guessing that the evening shift came on at SPC and decided that the threat isn't enough to keep the watch up.
  2. high risk
    Definitely electrified anvil activity. You can see very slight reflectivity in the areas where the strikes occurred.
  3. high risk
    Same here - just down the road. Several lightning strikes way, way removed from the rain.
  4. high risk
    There is discussion about this in the Severe thread. CAPE is much lower east of the Potomac, and storms are not surviving as they approach the river. They're turning to ride the instability gradient a bit.
  5. high risk
    Yes. Saw the lightning, followed by loud thunder. Was not expecting that.
  6. high risk
    Several recent lightning strikes over Howard/PG Counties, well removed from he precip.
  7. high risk
    Northwest PA, but it's worth noting that the recent HRRR and NAM Nest runs don't like our chances.
  8. high risk
    Yep, all the way to midnight, to account for both the ongoing activity and a possible line dropping south out of PA after dark.
  9. high risk
    This weekend air mass is going to be incredible. Multiple models show us barely hitting the low 70s Saturday, with a stiff breeze blowing. May not be a whole lot warmer than that on Sunday.
  10. high risk
    So weird. The HRRR never liked the idea of a line dropping out of PA, but it did generate cells locally. It's not easy to spot notable differences in the thermodynamic environment in the model between the "good" runs and "bad" runs.
  11. high risk
    Seems to be 2 scenarios: 1) Supercells form in western PA this afternoon, and a QLCS emerges and drops southeast into our area (6Z NAM Nest and 12Z ARW2). Shear is better to our west and northwest where a greater TOR threat would exist. We'd locally have a shot at damaging winds, although the system might be weakening 2) The PA storms never really get rolling, but some scattered storms develop locally late this afternoon, with some wind threat (12Z HRRR). Of course, both scenarios for us are dependent upon clearing out the morning clouds.
  12. high risk
    Very consistent signal in model runs late this afternoon and early evening. The SVR potential seems to be low, but I'd be fine with some heavy rain and noise.
  13. high risk
    On a separate note, I'm struggling to figure out why the SLGT today continues to include the DC-Baltimore region, with MRGL up into southern PA. I would have expected that northern/northeastern edge to be moved back to the southwest on the 1630 outlook.
  14. high risk
    Agreed. Peak climo here for higher-end severe in my mind is roughly May 15 - June 20 or so, but I won't argue with you wanting to extend that out a bit further. As you noted, a strong system in July/August can still get the job done, but they're tougher to come by.
  15. high risk
    You're spot on about the instability, which was always a question for this event, as it should be for something arriving here in the early morning hours. In terms of warm-season early morning convection, I can only remember a couple of legit severe events here in 20+ years. I disagree a little bit about the consistency of the model solutions. Yes, most guidance advertised an MCC rolling through the Mid-Atlantic, but the location and details were extremely inconsistent, even hour-to-hour in the HRRR. The problem was that multiple storm complexes formed to our west and northwest yesterday and yesterday evening, and the models couldn't agree on which one would be the show here. Lots of people got super excited about the organized complex in eastern OH yesterday evening, but the models that drove a big complex through here were actually developing it from a different batch of storms in Michigan. They never handled the Ohio feature well, and I lost confidence in the setup for us as a result. I think that while the thin line that rolled through the northern areas this morning came out of that OH feature, that messed up the feature behind it, as the Michigan storms tracked more south along an instability gradient that was likely altered by the Ohio storms. Regardless, you're completely correct that MCS activity is never a sure thing.
  16. high risk
    I throw my hands in the air on this one. The CAMs that bring an organized MCS through here tomorrow morning generate that system out of the storms currently in western Michigan. But they don't have a good handle on the ongoing storms in northwest Ohio. Could the Ohio storms end up being the show here in the Mid-Atlantic? This is so complicated, and the outcome here is dependent upon the exact evolution upstream - this explains why the HRRR keeps bouncing around hour to hour.
  17. high risk
    The HREF products reflect the idea among the CAMs that the chances for what's left of the MCS to bring strong winds down to the surface is fairly low (but not zero).
  18. high risk
    I do love how the Day 2 Outlook discussed a "weakened carcass of an MCS". That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty about how and where this MCS will evolve overnight. I'm still not overly worried at this time about widespread wind potential into the metro areas, given the poor timing and lack of instability, but these systems can certainly surprise if they develop a sufficiently strong cold pool.
  19. high risk
    It doesn't, but 18Z HRRR and NAM Nest still suggest that a cell or two is possible closer to sunset, especially in central or northern MD. And as mentioned earlier, any sustained cell today has potential to rotate.
  20. high risk
    YES!!!!! You would think that, given the delay, it's going to be "interesting".
  21. high risk
    First, while it's not clear how much instability will be available today, and storm coverage may therefore be very limited, the shear does support some supercell structures if any storms can be sustained. Onto early Tuesday, it's hard to ignore the explicit MCS signals in several CAMs, and we all know that the overall pattern supports the idea. What's not clear to me is whether it would be a severe MCS (I'll avoid the D word for now) or just a rainy, noisy elevated MCS. Verbatim, forecast soundings suggest that the system would not be surface-based, which would reduce the threat of big surface wind, but it's certainly too early to dismiss a widespread SVR threat.
  22. high risk
    That's a beaut! As I mentioned a bunch of posts back, the shear closer to the shortwave and sfc low is way stronger than what we currently have, and hat shear is going to overspread our area later tonight. The HRRR thinks that instability will fall off too much to sustain the convection and take advantage of the shear, unless you're further north, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are several warnings in the LWX CWA after midnight.
  23. high risk
    I still don't understand how we ended up with a few modest supercells in the area. The shear on the 00Z IAD sounding is nothing of note. And the Howard County rotation suddenly emerged at the back edge of the complex that brought torrential rain to that corridor. That cell was definitely not ingesting high theta-e air.
  24. high risk
    The late afternoon / evening seemed to always have limited potential here. Shear is weak, and CAPE is modest; a small amount of downdraft CAPE did admittedly keep the door open for a few wind gusts (and it's probably still open), but it wasn't a strong likelihood. I'm still watching the period much later tonight along the cold front. The HRRR wants to sweep a nice line through northern and perhaps north-central MD. CAPE will be limited due to time of day, but the shear will be much improved. The HRRR is definitely more aggressive than other CAMs with this feature, so we'll see how it plays out.
  25. high risk
    Timing looks a bit different on the evening guidance. Looks like the main batch of convection will occur more in the 7pm - midnight period. We'll have a bit more instability to work with, but wind profiles look very meh. So widespread severe seems unlikely, but perhaps the flash flooding potential is a bit higher. The bigger question is what happens ahead of the cold front in the early morning hours. Wind profiles will strengthen significantly, and while instability won't be impressive, there might be just enough to favorably interact with the shear. This is probably our better chance for SVR, although the CAMs don't have a lot of storms for that time - the better chance seems to be in northern MD.
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