high risk

I have to admit that I wasn't paying close attention to tomorrow, but the HRRR and the Hi-Res Windows all some some impressive cells across northern VA later Saturday. Wind profiles have some definite directional shear, although there is probably too much weakness in the speeds in the lower levels to have a robust TOR threat. Slight risk seems completely justified to me.

actually, the deep layer shear needed for an organized severe threat is overall lacking today, which explains the lack of a slight risk. that said, I do think we'll see a few isolated severe warnings later today.

very pleasantly surprised to get a heavy shower. All of the guidance I had seen today had this activity dying out well before reaching the I-95 corridor.

I'm not ready to buy in to heavier rain making it back to the I-95 corridor, but I'm definitely not ruling it out. The NAM nest is certainly most aggressive, but there is some support from other CAMs for the precip bands extending further west, although even those solutions make it clear that the NAM nest is too fast. It's also worth noting that the GFS tends to not generate sufficient precip on the west side of east coast storms, although there is more evidence for that with winter storms than with tropical hybrids.

Watching the 5th good cell today miss me by a couple of miles. Still stuck at a trace.

Yeah, this is comedy watching the whiffs here today. HRRR still says I get soaked in a few hours. Debating whether to water the garden.....

Exact same situation here just down the road. I rarely get pissed off at the weather. Right now, I'm really pissed off at the weather.

looking out my window here in Howard County, it looks like the atmosphere is trying to initiate locally

really need some patience. The CAMs were not forecasting an early show here. It will take time for the PA/NJ complex outflow to surge west and southwest, with development building along it back into northeast MD. There is still a legit question of whether there will be decent coverage in the DC/Baltimore corridor, but IF it happens, it won't be for several hours (and could even be an evening show).

No doubt that the eastern shore is the best place to be for organized SVR later today. For those west of the bay, we need the outflow to surge further west. It's worth noting that both the NAM nest and HRRR don't have too many storms in the DC area, as they both mix out the dew points a bit this afternoon. (HRRR is most aggressive.) Some of the other CAMs (the ARW2 of particular note) do not mix out the low-level moisture as much, as they have more coverage of storms west of the bay.

outflow made it all the way down to southern Howard County. Really nice!

Somewhat brief but torrential here in southern Howard too.

Thanks again for posting this. Tropical Tidbits has now corrected their plotting error as of the 18z cycle today.

great catch! If you look at the Tropical Tidbits 24h precip maps, it looks pretty clearly that the site is accidentally aggregating 24h totals, so I think it's a plotting error (or an error in the grib2 files) and not a new "biblical wet bias" in the new version.

12z NAM nest and HRRR both develop storms Saturday in the local area. Instability is limited, and shear is marginal, but there will be a lot of downdraft cape. Personally, I'm not very enthused, because the low level air will be so dry, but I'm ok with the MRGL. Sunday could be good if we lose the ugly warm mid-level temperatures being progged.

The one thing we had yesterday that we hadn't had here in a while was good flow aloft on a storm day. We had about 90 kt at jet level Thursday afternoon.

today definitely has sneaky potential. as noted by LWX, low level shear is miserable, but deep layer shear is really good, and there is also a fair amount of downdraft cape. I'd say now that while the best threat is definitely south of DC, where the better instability will reside, I'd say "I-70 and points south" for the threat, as the HRRR has definitely trended further north with good reflectivity signals since LWX wrote that discussion.

mesoanalysis currently shows 3000+ sfc-based cape for much of the region.... that said, most of the CAMs are not as enthusiastic as they were yesterday and seem to favor locations north and northwest of DC

small hail now

winds got really close to severe limits here in southern Howard County .

Yeah, documentation needs to be updated, and nothing is finalized yet until it can be demonstrated that it's stable, but it's not going to be implemented any time soon.

yes, it crashed multiple times during its final stability test, so more testing is required.

nope. likely delayed until late fall. The recent problems, however, explain why no data is currently available.

Agreed, although tomorrow is interesting, because while the deep layer shear is still weak, there is a fair amount of low level shear. Instability is no worry, and there will be a good trigger, so I think it's worth watching. I'm a bit surprised by the MRGL today. Shear is really, really sad, and even the approaching MCV won't boost the mid-level flow much at all. That said, storms will become fairly organized with the approaching lift, and organization always yields the potential for some coldpool development, so a few wind events likely can't be ruled out.

Nice research on this! 2008 was an active svr season for sure, but SPC was handing out MDT risks like Halloween candy. This was back before ENH existed, and they used MDT more liberally to try and distinguish from the run-of-the-mill SLGT days. In that respect, adding in the ENH was a very good move, as it allows them to represent those days with a larger coverage of lower end events and save the MDT for days with a decent concentration of higher end events. June 4, 2008 was a legit MDT for us, and it's a day I'll always remember. I guess that June 10 verified as a MDT over upstate New York and New England, although there weren't any high end reports; the MDT here didn't verify. May 31 and June 16 definitely would have worked fine with ENH, had that been an option.