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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Yeah, I won't assess the end of the season yet, but Thursday (maybe later tomorrow night for western areas) has some sneaky potential, particularly if the slowest solutions are correct. I still think it's more of a flooding threat, but shear will be strengthening. If we can get some heating ahead of the main frontal band on Thursday, at least some modest SVR potential is possible.
  2. high risk
    The I-95 corridor of Howard County was total Loserville today.
  3. high risk
    For those of us north of DC, there seems to be a fairly decent signal in the 12z CAMs for showers/storms to develop over the upper Eastern Shore and Bay during the mid afternoon hours and rotate to the west into the Baltimore area and northern AA, Howard, and Montgomery Counties.
  4. high risk
    I was surprised by the box, given no MD and the fact that we're cooling post-sunset. But the parameters on the SPC mesoanalysis look pretty good.
  5. high risk
    While the location of the max is jumping around (as it often does), the last several consecutive HRRR runs all have a 2-4" max somewhere in north-central or northern Maryland.
  6. high risk
    That NAM3 run thinks that most of the convection will die before reaching Delaware - it has a few scattered cells moving across the state much later tonight. It's not an unreasonable solution that convection will not be widespread at the unfavorable time of day. That said, there are other CAMs that generate enough forcing ahead of the front to compensate for the limited late-night instability, and they have more widespread and heavier rain in eastern areas later tonight.
  7. high risk
    I'm mostly on board with the severe threat, although the coverage of storms during the severe "window" (roughly 21z to 02z) will be limited. Might transition to more of a flash flood threat later in the evening.
  8. high risk
    I didn't pay close attention to guidance yesterday, and the potential for Sunday to not be so nice of a day really snuck up on me.
  9. high risk
    What's happening now in the PHL-TTN corridor this evening would have been us with a slightly further west and slower track for Ida.
  10. high risk
    I'll say this: there seems to be some agreement that this line to our west will sweep through in a few hours. The HRRR hodographs are garbage, but even though the 18z NAM Nest weakens the shear, it keeps the sfc winds more backed, and I can't rule out a TOR or two if that solution ends up correct.
  11. high risk
    The HRRR has another nice convective band moving through early this evening, but low-level winds are progged to significantly veer by then, so I'm not buying much of a TOR threat unless those forecasted wind profiles are really off.
  12. high risk
    Any school system on the east side of the Potomac that didn't dismiss early made a mistake today. The Annapolis tornado hit right around dismissal time.
  13. high risk
    The only event I can recall is the April 27-28, 2011 event when we were under a tornado watch here for over 20 straight hours. But that was an instance of SPC continually reissuing the box. I can't recall an event with two separate events (with a break in between) requiring tornado watches on the same day before.
  14. high risk
    18z IAD special rob has a 0-1 km helicity of 261 !!!
  15. high risk
    It's broad, but I would be erring on the side of extreme caution today if I were at LWX.
  16. high risk
    That cell just east of Waldorf looks great!
  17. high risk
    Spot on. At the least, they'd have to be sending kids home in torrential rain if they didn't alter the dismissal time.
  18. high risk
    DCA now 81/73 with a southeast wind. BWI is 79/75 with an east wind. We may not get the 2000 CAPE values that some guidance was showing yesterday, but it certainly seems like sufficient instability will be in place, at least along and east of the I-95 corridor.
  19. high risk
    Tornado watch coming soon.
  20. high risk
    Howard County schools closing 3 hours early. SPC Mesoanalysis shows that we have work to do in terms of instability along the I-95 corridor to ramp up the threat. The likely earlier arrival of the forcing will give less time for heating, but I'm absolutely not ready to lower the threat yet.
  21. high risk
    That would be good. My worries are that some schools will end up under tornado warnings, and they usually bring the kids to interior hallways, and that kind of crowding is not what we want during a pandemic......
  22. high risk
    School systems would be very wise to have an early dismissal at noon. It would be bad to potentially have to get kids home while there are active tornado warnings.
  23. high risk
    I don't like that the 00z HRRR run brings the TOR threat into our area by mid-afternoon Wednesday instead of late afternoon. Do not want kids on school buses as tornado warnings are issued.
  24. high risk
    Yes, most guidance had a modest chunk of the huge predicted rainfalls for PA occurring tonight.
  25. high risk
    You may be on to something here. I wasn't worrying too much about the late night threat due to what I thought would be a lack of instability, but even though it's somewhat of an outlier, the HRRR has a modest shear/instability combo here towards morning.
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