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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Increasing signal in the guidance this morning for widespread showers and storms this afternoon for those east of the Potomac, especially for northern/northeast MD. Models have had limited handle on the precip so far (to be kind), so I'm not totally sure how much I buy it, although radar seems to suggest that this scenario is plausible.
  2. high risk
    one last tornado warning on the MD/PA border, near @mappy
  3. high risk
    A few cells popping up in western Montgomery and near Culpepper. HRRR shows a strong line (or line with embedded supercells?) moving through DC and points north after dinner time.
  4. high risk
    The box is going to be justified, but in terms of tornado threat across MD, the earlier arrival of storms may limit that potential a bit, as the best low-level shear won't arrive until later in the afternoon.
  5. high risk
    Yeah, but those HRRR low dew points that we usually see are due to mixing, and even the HRRR can't overmix a tropical air mass like this.
  6. high risk
    NAM Nest seems to be an outlier with its very sparse coverage of cells this afternoon.
  7. high risk
    Oddly, the 00z NAM nest had better parameters but fewer storms than shown in previous runs. HRRR and HiRes Window ARW still look impressive.
  8. high risk
    They stuck w the MRGL.....
  9. high risk
    Curious to see what SPC does here with the updated day 2 outlook in 20 minutes. I think there is enough in the 12z CAMs today to go with a SLGT (5% TOR) in roughly a Farmville, PA to Williamsport, PA corridor (~80 miles on either side), but I wouldn't be shocked if they want until tomorrow morning to upgrade either.
  10. high risk
    Is it really a "surprise" when the models show discrete rotating cells 2 days in advance, and SPC puts us in an initial Day 2 MRGL with potential for a later upgrade?
  11. high risk
    Agreed, but really hoping that area to the southwest doesn't pivot hard to the northeast. Even with a lull, it would get really bad if that moves over the areas that have already been drowned this evening.
  12. high risk
    Still very intrigued by Wednesday. Still some fail scenarios: best storms stay north in PA, best wind fields are further west, instability is lacking..... but some of the CAM solutions are quite good in terms of discrete cells and show some impressive low-level shear.
  13. high risk
    I was just coming in to post the same thing. The NAM/NAM3 and extrapolated HRRR and some of the HiResWindows look very interesting for Wednesday. Hodographs look impressive, and this certainly gets our attention:
  14. high risk
    Very concerned about the areas that got crushed last night for the week ahead. Multiple chances for more large rain totals this week, perhaps as soon as very late tonight.
  15. high risk
    I don't know what to think about the overnight. Several of the 00z CAMs bring some heavy rain up through DC and even to those of us further north, but I'm not sure if they really have a handle on everything. Perhaps they're misplacing the ongoing convection too far north? That said, the outflow surging north out of southern MD makes me think that things could erupt further north in the next couple of hours.
  16. high risk
    Tuesday and Wednesday each yielded a surprisingly high number of SVR reports in this area. There were certainly a couple of particularly notable cells with higher-end swaths of damage, but the coverage of reports was still impressive. But I agree that high CAPE and moderate DCAPE are more than compensating for very weak shear. I'd certainly be surprised if we didn't get at least one round of TC remnants up this way in the next 6-8 weeks.
  17. high risk
    It's probably just my fading memory, but I can't recall such an extremely active week like this with so little shear.
  18. high risk
    It's up around 900 or so. Was it that much higher on previous days? Regardless, that's enough today to still have downburst issues, especially given the high CAPE.
  19. high risk
    I'm expecting something similar to Wednesday, as have a similar combination of high CAPE and fairly high downdraft CAPE but no shear. Storms will pulse, and there will be some impressive wind events, but it shouldn't be anything too organized.
  20. high risk
    Heavy shower has strengthened into a thunderstorm now as it moved to my east. Moderate rain and distant thunder here. Seems to be a developing signal for some stronger winds as the cell moves across Anne Arundel county.
  21. high risk
    Winds definitely hit severe criteria in southern Howard County. Wow. Power went off but has thankfully returned.
  22. high risk
    That's a nasty wind signal over Silver Spring now. Hearing that it was pretty bad as it passed through Bethesda.
  23. high risk
    I think that the warnings were for the surging outflow, but new storms are now firing on that outflow boundary. Tricky day to forecast, as the lack of shear keeps allowing the outflow to surge way out ahead of the storms, so we rely on re-development for the downstream threats.
  24. high risk
    I think that the issue with the HRRR being dry today (and for the past couple of days) is that it's overmixing the boundary layer, and the dew points out ahead of the storms are too low.
  25. high risk
    I definitely expect one. Totally agree with SPC that the shear is completely lame, but it's clear that we have a shortwave approaching at the right time of day into an environment with good instability and downdraft CAPE. And the fact that yesterday overperformed in a fairly similar setup will definitely factor in to the decision to box us.
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