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Chris78

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    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    12z and 18z GFS couldn't be much more different. Maybe some people "get" the same amount of snow, but the storm's evolution is vastly different. And different in a positive way for us SE folks.

    Hard to trust any model evolution currently.  I like the 18z better but it was am odd evolution compared to 12z.

    Weaker system,  smaller area of precip but more QPF in a good spot for us

    • Like 1

    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    @Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx

    Thoughts on this...

    I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work.

    Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones.  The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it.  

    So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 

    1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain.  This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario.

    2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW.  

    I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible.  Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO.  That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to.  I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm.  

    Thoughts?  

    Option 1 I would think is safer but with less upside. 

    I know your moose hunting  but I would gladly take a squirl , fox or anything in between. :lol:

    Edit:  @psuhoffman can you explain why our qpf increased even with the system being weaker?

    Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, IronTy said:

    What the fuq.  I just got the results of the WB December forecast competition.  I was in the top 25% of entries...beat almost half the models and 33% of WB's professional forecasters.  If that doesn't tell you what kind of scam this industry is then nothing will.  I don't even drink and I still think I was drunk when I made my entries.

     

    "Congratulations on ranking 19 out of 72 competitors in WeatherBELL's December Forecast Competition! You've shown impressive skill in long-range weather forecasting, beating 3 out of 7 models and 2 out of 6 members of the WeatherBELL team!"

    Is JB offering you a job? :lol:

    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    We are not safe up here. This could easily become an interior and New England event.  We don’t have nearly the wiggle room we need.  I was hopeful when things were trending colder 24 hours ago but we needed that trend to continue. Yes it could reverse but the trend towards a less amped system is concerning. But it very well could continue. Look at the changes in just the last 24 hours. We could easily be mostly rain here too by the time it gets here. Not saying we will but I don’t feel safe in the least. Seen this setup way too many times. And so has everyone else. That’s why there are so many posts with declarative statements no one really means. To try to convince ourselves this time will be different lol. Eventually one will be different. But I never feel confident at this range no matter what unless everything is truly perfect. This setup isn’t. 

    100 agree.

    Need to stop the bleeding. We're another model  cycle or 2 away from being an interior storm.

    • Like 1

    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, jayyy said:


    I don’t think it’s ultimately going to be that close of a call near the MD PA border once the dust settles - especially for places near 81 and 15. We’ve seen this song and dance before. Still thinking it’s 90%+ snow for those areas as things stand right now. If the low tracks as depicted by the GEFS, I feel pretty confident in seeing at least a low level warning level snowfall for my area, PSUs area and clskins area. The area that’s most unknown is 95 and the immediate DC / BAL metro. Gotta think Baltimore will fair better than DC in this setup. So long as the primary doesn’t trend stronger / hold on longer, I feel pretty confident in the above scenario.

    Going to be very interesting once we get into meso / short term model range (nest, NAM, etc) Globals tend to paint a broader brush as far as thermals are concerned and overlook some of the dynamics driving where the R/S line ultimately sets up.

    Think one thing is pretty certain here… the gradient is going to be awfully sharp between areas that stay primarily snow just west of the fall line versus areas just east of it. 6-8” versus 1-3” within the span of 20 or so miles is looking pretty likely here. Question remains: where?


    .

    You certainly could be right. We can't afford anymore north adjustments 

    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

    unfortunately the GEFS followed the op.  The track is fine, but the see saw went towards a stronger SW in the southwest and a weaker one associated with our system.  The SLP track is identical to previous runs, but its weaker,  less moisture, and warmer.  

    Not surprising being 4 days out now. Ensembles going to do alot of following from here on in.

    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, jayyy said:

    95 is not out of the game yet. Better to be in Carroll county than Baltimore or DC for this one though it seems (hello, climo) Need the coastal low to develop and deepen quicker to flip wind direction and mitigate onshore flow for the 95 corridor / metros to be able to maximize. Going to be a close call for those areas for sure.

    It's going to be a close call for northern areas. 6z Euro control and 12z Gfs  runs the rain/ snow line pretty darn close to the M/D line.

    Doesn't mean it's correct but with the latest trends you may need to be in central PA to feel secure with this set up.

    January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

    If you loop the last few runs of the gfs on the Atlantic side there isn’t much change. But now there’s a big chunk of energy that has all of a sudden showed up in the sw. Looks to me like that acts like a seesaw and kicks our sw north. That piece is currently over the North Pacific. Not drawing conclusions, just how it looks on the gfs.

    Also the high dropping out of Canada doesn't have as strong as south push over the last 4 runs.

    gfs_mslpa_us_fh96_trend.gif

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