Jed33

Meanwhile, guidance has been getting colder for tonight, such that MRX is now forecasting near record or even record lows in places! Hopefully this is the last really cold night for this winter. Looks like some places north of I-40 will drop into the teens tonight.

Same here as well.

Unfortunately, considering the redbuds are blooming and that is traditionally the first of these “spring winters”, I don’t think we’re going to avoid it. This is going to be about as cold of a “redbud winter” though as I’ve ever seen. Also, I saw a dogwood today that the buds were swelling on and slightly opened. If we’d stayed warm just a little longer, the dogwoods would be blooming and we would have had both “winters” at the same time. I don’t think this freeze will hurt the dogwoods in this stage, but if it gets down into the low 20’s tomorrow night, it will fry the redbuds, pear trees, cherries, and any other blooming trees, as well as any leaves that have put out on them. Daffodils will be fine, as they can take snow and a lot more cold. I’ve seen them take low teens and not even phase them. Right now I had to cover up my blueberry bushes this evening and will again tomorrow night. I’m thinking I’m going to have my work cut out for me over the next few weeks with them, unfortunately it looks like I’ll be covering and uncovering them quite a bit!

There are many shrubs like that around here as well. Otto Lukyens and other laurels like Skip Laurel took it on the chin. My neighbor had some formed into a hedge along his driveway that had to be at least 8ft tall and about 15yrs old. They are brown and only putting out from the bottom and some midway up the shrub. His will have to be pruned like that and basically start over like they were 15yrs ago when he planted them. Even then it’s not going to be pretty. There won’t be an even re-growth to a hedge. Some will sprout higher up on the individual shrub and others lower down, making it to where they have to be pruned lower than might ordinarily be the case in order to try to achieve some form of uniform hedge again.

That’s incredibly high amp! But, as high as it is, check out the JMA!

Similar story here today. Tbh, the wind did not reach High Wind Warning criteria here until the storms went through this afternoon. Now, this evening we are easily gusting to 40-50mph!

Snow showers scattered around here right now. Temp is 35.

Well, to be fair it is the weather, and the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do. Personally, I really appreciate Holston, Carver, and all the others that chime in here to offer observations and thoughts on the pattern and possibilities going forward. It’s hard to find analysis like this elsewhere and that’s what makes this board so great in my opinion! It may or may not work out, but there have been other times like this before. So, if it doesn’t work out in our favor, I don’t consider it a loss myself because the opportunity was there. When you are studying/interested in something you have no control over, then you take what you get and enjoy it good or bad. Then, the next time something comes up, you can draw on past experiences to give you an idea of what might happen. Even then though, it’s just an idea of what might happen. Nothing is ever guaranteed. Doesn’t mean it’s not fun or interesting to study though. Just my two cents.

Well the sun is out here but not before a small band with a “white-rain” moved through. It was so bright with the sun shining right in that I had to hide behind a porch column to diffuse this light, but I did manage to get a glimpse of some snow mixing in, and after that this spectacular rainbow out my front door over the lake!

The returns aren’t as heavy in NW AL as in Central MS, but what they don’t have in returns in this area, they make up in elevation. There are places that are over 1,000ft to the South and SW of Florence AL, so there might be some flakes making it down here.

It’s too bad MS doesn’t have much elevation! Around here 2k ft would not be anything really special and this would be a site to behold! Unfortunately for them, most of the state is under 500ft, and the peaks only max out at 806ft in the far NE corner. Having lived there a good bit of my life though, I wouldn’t trade it for anything. 2 good things they never have to worry about in any part of that state is the rain shadow effect from downsloping and a plateau that hangs up cold air! There’s just not anything tall enough to do either. On the flip side though, they struggle even more with getting cold fronts to pass through bc of latitude. So, I guess there’s that trade off to consider as well.

Wow! If that’s hail, that’s gonna add up fast!

Lol Jeff! I should have been more prepared. Those trajectory model forecasts had it passing right over this area, but I didn’t think too much about it. I could have gotten some better pics if I had called a buddy who is a photographer and we could have had a neighborhood spy ballon party lol!

Yeah I had just taken the dogs out to walk and thought wait a minute, that’s got to be it. I ran inside to get my wife’s phone bc it makes better pictures than mine. So, I ran back outside and took a few. It was still a little on the dark side, but yeah, there it was!

This was at 7:25 AM eastern

Saw it this morning in the southern sky. I literally thought what star is that, and then I remembered oh yeah, it may be the balloon. So, I took a couple pictures and then compared it to other images online I could find, and I do believe it really was what it was.

Looks like it’s moving right along. On RadarScope it looks like it’s about to be at John’s house soon.

I did notice by the looks of the radar it does go way back into TX (Deep into the heart of TX, as they say) also it appears the precip around Memphis has more of an easterly, slight NE movement for the time. Meaning more areas of N MS will likey get involved this time and of course middle TN. Looks like it’s about to be knocking on the door Of the western plateau-there is kind of a strange finger that has developed east in Rutherford Co and extending east.

Thanks I missed that. I have wondered all along if that might be possible at the end. The airmass coming down is pretty potent and I may try to squeeze out one last hurrah. I guess we’ll see

I saw that forecast discussion Carver and almost commented on it. Yeah, it appears the cold is pressing pretty well. It may get to the valley especially the further NW you are, but if anything it should just make the trees glisten around here, which is still a win in this setup. Meanwhile, I hope everyone in W TN and extreme NW MS gets in safely tonight! It is going downhill fast there I hear. A buddy of mine lives in Southaven and he said it’s pouring sleet there right now.

Looks like it’s about to get real in Memphis! Heavy ZR moving in now temp 28 Dp 26 yep that’ll do it!

I don't know how it will turn out ultimately, but having lived in W. TN and N MS for a good chunk of my life, until we moved to E TN, I've been through these types of setups before. Well remember the '94 ice storm, and many other ones. The cold air often times "out-performs" the models. It has very little resistance coming down the MS river and funneling right into Memphis and NW MS. I remember many times when the forecast offices had to play catch up all through the event. In '94, the precip was supposed to change to rain several different times, but never did. Memphis ended up with over 2" of ZR in that one, and parts of N MS, as impossible as this seems had 6+" of ZR!! Now, to be fair, I don't think this one is quite as cold as the one in '94, nor will have the moisture of '94. Although the air to have made it that cold is around to the north, I don't think it's going to quite move into the midsouth ala '94. It's just the setup with multiple days of over-running precip that reminds me of '94. The fact that the models keep shifting south is putting more areas of N MS and Middle TN in play for some ice, and is really concerning for Memphis, which appears to be just about the bullseye for this event as it stands right now, unless it shifts even further south. This just looks like a classic Memphis and Mid-south ice storm from days gone by. Hopefully, they can avoid what my grandfather used to call an "ice-breakdown".

Well, it may not be snowing here, but take a look at the Northern Rockies. Since we just got back last week from skiing and snowmobiling out there, it’s still on my mind. I’ve been following it more than usual. Anyway, they have had over 3ft of new “cold smoke” as they say in Montana in the last couple days! Big Sky reports 19in in the last 24hrs this AM! That, and an arctic front moving through today will send them well below zero this afternoon and tonight and keep it that way for several days. I guess I will live vicariously through them, while we see if this winter will quit teasing us and finally deliver something.

Same here! The wind is rough right now!

Lol MRX…Updated to adjust pops and trends based on radar, only to say “precipitation is moving out a bit faster than forecasted, but only barely.” Lol which one is it? Is it moving out fast enough to warrant an update to make something out of it, or not. SMH…Does this go along the same lines as the snowfall maps that were mentioned earlier in this thread? Are they so afraid of being wrong, lol. Anyway, I just thought it was kind of amusing wordage.