CAPE

Not sure about this. Looking at the depiction at the end of the ens runs, and continuing forward with the extended products, it looks like the same progression we had previously that led to nothing more than a rather weak, transient -NAO. There were hints of a retrograding Scandi ridge then too, but it was a unicorn. Just going with persistence, I don't think a legit(stable) NA block is in the cards this winter, not that it would make much difference in mid to late March anyway.

I used to be bitter, or so I was told lol. I forget how that started. Speaking of bitter(s), just made an old fashioned, with quite a bite. Delicious. In other news, HH GFS has a completely new look for March 1st. Not surprising. Now we torch lol.

Apparently there isn't much to discuss wrt prospects for cold/snow for what's left of this winter. Might as well prepare ourselves for next winter's inevitable disaster.

Picked this up today. Drinking one for HH. Love KBS, but never tried this one before. This is damn good. Might have another.

Nice. Take a trip NW to the highlands and its pretty likely you will see snow.

This type of pattern(-EPO) is not uncommon at times in a Nina, and can bring legit cold. Flow tends to be progressive and the disturbances are mostly/all NS, but with amplification can dig southward enough to track underneath. Jan 22 is a good example. -EPO/+PNA was the mechanism for cold plus waves digging further south than typical. A transient -NAO/50-50 low may have led to a better outcome for areas inland.

Found it. PSU2 storm? It's happening ! this time.

Yeah activity is largely suppressed. Guidance is forecasting it to emerge in phase 4 in the LR and extrapolating, enhanced convection. There are other mechanisms that have significant influence on the NPAC jet. What's the current/forecasted state of EAMT?

MJO influences the Pac jet. Pretty sure forcing in phases 2-3-4 is associated with retraction. Ofc there are other mechanisms at play. Most of this is above my pay grade.

Suppressed MJO predicted to emerge again near the MC, Pacific jet retraction. Ofc the PDO. Much more Nina like.

It is going to be a Nina, but assuming a Modoki is the likely outcome at this juncture is silly for a multitude of reasons. It's almost entirely based on the latest CanSIPS run 7 months out lol.

GEFS persists with this look for early March. Weak signal for frozen with advertised temps slightly below average. GEPS has it to a lesser degree, but the EPS doesn't like it.

We just cannot know.

I like his enthusiasm. I try to be optimistic, but he outdoes me by a lot lol. He will learn and become jaded like the rest of us older fucks.

They suck. When the MJO never progresses east of the MC for more than 5 minutes, it isn't much of a Nino.

Just bring me a fresh pure Nina, with some periods of cross polar flow, and I will take my chances. Beach chase, whatever it takes. Can always go north or to the western highlands for snow in any winter, regardless of ENSO.

But this Nino was impotent. Any 'hangover' would be pretty lame.

The weeklies have been fucking with us for months with these favorable h5 Nino-ish looks. With one or 2 brief exceptions, it remains a unicorn. But yes come late March, we will probably get a blockbuster slow moving Miller A with copious amounts of cold rain. Maybe we can all meet up At Canaan.

Mosquitoes are a different story. Because I have a seasonal woodland wetland on my property, Spring mosquitoes are like clockwork, unless we have a super dry Winter/early Spring. To avoid an unmanageable swarm that can only be knocked back with malathion, I have to larvicide in late March, and then I hit it again a few weeks later for good measure. If I do that, I won't see a mosquito until those invasive Asian Tigers show up later in Summer. Those bastards seemingly don't require any water to breed(they do, but very very little).

I do it when its dry, but once you spray and the insecticide dries, if it rains a few hours or a day later its fine.

I dread bugs every year. I use this. Spray it around the perimeter of the house- along the foundation, door sills etc with a garden sprayer. I start in mid March and do it every month or so. Has a long lasting residual. Once it dries its not harmful to humans. You can spray it inside- can be used for bed bugs. Good shit. https://www.diypestwarehouse.com/products/suspend-sc

It was 2018.

You should start the thread. Can't wait to see the title.

That's the Philly forum, and it does have a banter thread. I think he is talking about the Upstate NY/PA forum. Either way, that won't work here.

You are right, but you aren't going to convince him. Give up lol.