CAPE

A strong 50-50 low is good, but the orientation/position is important. Improvement there on the 12z run. Also improvement out west. Both relatively subtle, but gained some spacing on both ends. To me the biggest difference has to do with the shortwave itself, resulting in a deeper surface low.

lol I'm not going anywhere. I just do my thing, and read the posts I find value adding.

The shortwave is stronger/sharper, with just enough interaction at the right time with NS vorticity. Also a bit more separation from the 50/50-ish vortex.

I think I need a break. The Bob Chill variety.

You heard it. That pattern can't work. Pray/root hard for a ++NAO.

He is probably referring to this period when the trough digs into the central US and forces a ridge up into eastern Canada. The NAO ridge is established prior to that occurring though.

Pretty close match to the EPS h5 look for that timeframe. More impressive -NAO signal on the EPS though.

A bit further north than the previous 2 runs. 7 days out so still uncertainty on the exact details. Potential for a moderate event for parts of the region with some spacing adjustments.

6z GEFS has the precip a bit further north, but the signal for frozen is modest and focused more in the western higher terrain. The basic problem(s) as currently modeled imo- the tendency for the wave to weaken/be suppressed due to the close proximity of the previous wave that strengthens into a southward displaced 50-50 feature, while the deepening trough out west forces a developing ridge just to the north/west of the low as it tracks towards the coast. That also tends to shunt it offshore to our south and somewhat limits available cold.

Not sure what you are looking at lol. It is the same general idea as the GFS, but it has more of a 50-50 trough with TPV energy feeding into it. It progresses NE a bit as the low approaches so a bit more spacing.

Be interesting to see the GEFS members. Didn't quite work out this run, but this is an improvement wrt cold air feed from the north as the low approaches. The classic surface HP locked in southern Canada with confluence on the west side of that vortex. Need more spacing between our wave and that vortex though, otherwise it damps as it runs into the upper confluence/convergence region.

Storm ran into a wall on our doorstep. Too much of a good thing up top. Wave dampens. That '50-50' vortex is a beast and a bit too far southwest. Need more spacing.

Here we go..

6z GFS looking Iconic. The main shortwave is stronger and a bit more 'left alone'. Stronger surface LP along the Gulf coast, colder look leading in.

I know what's required/works best for the coastal plain, just as you do for you area. The contributions I make in the main thread are not with any sort of bias based on my expectations or what's best for my yard though. That usually only comes up on the periphery in the context of other posts that have been made- such as the posts suggesting certain patterns are unworkable/game over etc. Some folks key in on that verbiage and the takeaway is, here we go again- another shit winter. I do my best to provide objective analysis of the patterns/possible storm opportunities for our region in general, and try to keep a positive vibe. I don't need to make posts about bad looks/degrading patterns, etc, because whatever we end up with, there will be opportunities to track. In the end everyone can evaluate based on ground truth vs their expectations.

Ah sorry. Misunderstood. Good to see you are working to overcome it.

How about realistic expectations? Try that.

Expectations play a big role in this for sure. Mine are modest. Only takes 20" here for above avg, and I hit that back in Jan 2022.

2014? 15? Dude you need to get over your WAR phobia lol. Not like its some damn Bermuda high parked out there.

This pattern might not be exactly what we wanted/expected heading into mid Jan, but there is a mechanism for cold air delivery which is NUMBER ONE if you want snow. Because we are in a Nino, we have an active southward displaced Jetstream, bring disturbances eastward along the flow within it. There is cold enough air at the surface as advertised, and the thermal boundary is in the vicinity and will surely be southward enough periodically for well timed waves to give us chances. The -NAO would help facilitate that despite the less than ideal Pacific. That's what I see anyway.

Thanks Chuck.

Maybe those 'saying its ok' fully realize the advertised look is not what we ideally want to see, but also recognize that if that that's hand we are dealt we have a couple choices- find something else to do, or continue to look for chances within that pattern. We have managed to snow in non-ideal longwave patterns you don't approve of in recent winters, and many here are happy with any snow at all, and don't have your high standards of 40"+ per season and KUs in every Nino. In this area we suck at snow in general, and its likely not getting any better going forward. Maybe you need to adjust a bit.

Congrats if that's what you deciphered out of that word salad lol. Highly subjective I guess.

I think we used to do this? Or tried it. Problem is people still end up posting in the wrong thread due to confusion of what belongs where. I like the idea, but I think it probably becomes a headache to moderate, constantly having to move posts.

If that's what he actually said I might agree. I mean, that's literally what I said the issue was. WTF you smokin?