CAPE

More friendly reminders lol. Seems more like HE finally learned something they already knew.

There is notable improvement on the 6z GEFS compared to previous ens runs. Less disparity among the members, with the UL energy in a more favorable position over Atlantic Canada on the mean. Much stronger signal for frozen in the MA.

The GFS goes nuts with dropping additional NS energy southward and phasing it with the initial wave that rides overtop the amplifying ridge. It has a more amped poleward ridge configuration that allows NS energy to dig further southward- that would likely damp/suppress any wave tracking eastward underneath. The ridge configuration is different on the EURO- it broadens out with more of a bridge with the ridging out west over AK/W Canada, and has the NS energy shifting more eastward towards the 50-50 region. There is better wave spacing and it's less suppressive.

Or you could crack it open after a Raven's victory over the Mahomeboy-Swifties on Sunday.

Even if the storm around the 5th is too far south/offshore, as it strengthens and moves NE, it reinforces the 50-50 low and the increasing h5 heights in the NAO space- could set us up for the next wave ejecting eastward around the 10th.

@brooklynwx99 I will sacrifice the Feb 5th period for a stronger, more southward displaced vortex to help induce increasing h5 heights in the NAO domain sooner. Establish that block for mid month.

That answers my question then lol.

Surface low pressure a bit further south than we want on the mean, but not awful at this juncture. The wave interaction details up top need to be worked out.

@stormtracker How you doing with that 120?

It is the very beginning of our epic period. Would be nice to put another one on the board, but not the end of the world if not.

Might be too much of a good thing though.

For the storm potential for around the 5th- plenty of spread among the members, from crushed south to a track much further north. The outcome mostly hinges on the amplified Hudson ridge and how strong of a vortex gets caught underneath as the anticyclonic wave break occurs. If that vortex is displaced southward of 50-50, the wave moving eastward in the southern stream will tend to be suppressed southward or dampen and weaken as it comes east. If that vortex is weaker/further north, the shortwave can track further north. At this juncture, well ofc we just cant know. The disparity among the members can pretty clearly be seen in this panel-

Straight off the latest GFS op. Gotta be right.

I grabbed that from Google images lol, but I am going to pour it in a glass like that(minus the logo)

About to open this bad boy for HH. Got it for 22 bucks which is a actually a bargain.

Awesome. It really is worth it, and even 12 bucks a bottle isn't really out of line. Get it cold, then sip it slow, and savor it- as it warms and opens up, the complex notes become more apparent. Enjoy it!

The potential storm for the 5th is showing signs of being a southern slider. Have to see about temps but the snow mean has ticked up to our south. I made a post this morning illustrating why this storm may track further south, or even dampen/weaken as it moves towards the SE coast. Long way to go though, and lots of details to be worked out.

High of 73. 69 now.

72 bugs frogs TORCH!

68

Could head out to Canaan to chase an inch?

62 here. Was 57 when I went to bed. I hear frogs.

0z GEFS- pretty strong signal for low pressure off the southeast coast for the 5th.

The amplifying Hudson ridge and associated wave break forces a lot of vorticity southward, developing a strong vortex underneath. This may ultimately act to dampen/force southward the shortwave ejecting eastward for the Feb 5th potential. This is still pretty far out so hard to know details, but the general idea looks similar on the GEFS. These wave (breaking) interactions help to evolve the HL pattern from an amped central Canada ridge into a developing -NAO.

Latest extended products(Euro, GFS, CMC) all have that look for around PD.