CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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38 and rain. 0.42" so far.
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Or not anywhere south of there. As of now its an OV/GL/interior NE snow event. Cold comes in behind, which has been the expectation based on the preponderance of guidance. Still a chance the cold comes in sooner with some frozen NW areas, but we know how that usually plays out.
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How about both? Probably going to see a light/moderate event (or 2) with modest waves tracking to our south before any KU potential the way the pattern looks to play out. One of these waves could be weak/ suppressed I suppose.
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Probably too soon for a KU. Might be after the 20th when the -NAO relaxes, but still cold in place. Something like this on the 12z GEFS-
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12z EPS hinting at that possibility.
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EPS for the 13th. Still a clear signal for storm track to our west. WW can show where the snow is.
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I agree. I think next weekend is still a bit of a longshot at this point. Might be a trailing wave possibility a day or so later with colder air in place. Best signal I am seeing on the means right now for a wave tracking underneath with cold entrenched is the 16-17th.
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12z GEFS- Hints of NS energy associated with the TPV interacting/phasing with a southern stream wave for the 17th.
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That storm is going to track along the thermal boundary, which has looked like it would be to our west for this period. There is a bit of a 'trend' to move it eastward a bit a faster. This can be seen looking at the individual members- a quick look at the 12z GEFS reveals that there are about 8 that have the boundary closer(or even south) and get frozen into our area.
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The ensembles have been on that window, as well as the GFS op the last 3 runs.
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Who knows. He is a one trick pony and a snake oil salesman. To him everything that happens at 500 mb and below in winter hinges on the state of the SPV.
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6z GEFS for the 16-17th potential. This is a pretty strong signal for a significant shortwave and developing surface low at this range.
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As long as its 50 miles further east so I don't get dry slotted.
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End of the 6z GFS run
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Good agreement for the coldest period we have seen so far, occurring in a favorable climo period, and a pattern that is conducive for shortwaves tracking to our south. As always it will come down to wave timing/luck.
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^The 0z GFS, and now 6z have it.
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The 16-17th window continues to look like the first chance for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place.
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25 Radiational cooling and anti-UHI doing its work here. Not that it matters in this case lol
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ignore it.
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You done drove in the wrong direction.
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Cold day here. High of 36 after a low of 22. Currently 31. Will be lucky to see a sleet pellet before the heavy rain. Strong southerly flow with a low tracking left of the coast and a retreating cold air mass is always a loser here.
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Founders CBS for HH.
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Indications of shortwaves in the flow with colder air in place. Hint of some precip late on the 15th and on the 17th.
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Colder air comes in sooner next weekend. Pretty cold for MLK day.
