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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Latest extended products(Euro, GFS, CMC) all have that look for around PD.
  2. CAPE
    Such toxicity in this thread! (looking at you, Yoda) And for what? It's not even a real event.
  3. CAPE
    This has been showing up on guidance for awhile now. Probably our first legit shot at something, despite marginal cold air availability.
  4. CAPE
    These super LR tools can't 'see' discrete threats. Only thing they are good for is indicating the general longwave pattern. From that, we can glean the potential for cold and snow. Goddamn snow maps lol.
  5. CAPE
    We need a new thread! Tracking the wrong damn thing.
  6. CAPE
    More dig further west under the anticyclonic wave break compared to 12z, and we get this.
  7. CAPE
    I can see this is gonna be fun. Not even HH yet. Someone might want to ban me from this thread.
  8. CAPE
    NAM onboard
  9. CAPE
    Latest blend.
  10. CAPE
    Lamar needs to prove he can get it done against snow tv. Mahomes won't make it easy though.
  11. CAPE
    I chased an early Jan beach blizzard at Rehoboth in 2017. Got 5-6" in my yard from that storm, and there was a couple other smaller events. Wasn't awful, at least over here.
  12. CAPE
    No way to know the exact character of the ENSO event or how the winter will play out. Get a few weeks where the Aleutian ridge morphs into a -EPO and we might have a January 2022 type period.
  13. CAPE
    Best model ever.
  14. CAPE
    Yeah and just saying 'east of the Fall line' doesn't work either. My yard is well east of the Fall line and there have been many enjoyable winter storms in March since I have lived here. Not sure about double digit snow events, but who cares especially in March.
  15. CAPE
    @brooklynwx99 Mint.
  16. CAPE
    Lots of action in the southern stream on that run. And yeah it looks like the NAO will become more negative towards mid month.
  17. CAPE
    March gonna be a snow month again. The best h5 looks on the extended tools are late Feb-mid March.
  18. CAPE
    The longwave pattern becomes quite favorable by Feb 10. The 6z GEFS teleconnections: -AO, neutral NAO trending negative, -EPO/WPO, slightly +PNA.
  19. CAPE
    I'm guessing he realizes southward displaced jet extensions are common during Nino events, although it comes across otherwise. Ofc he has been telling people extended jet = torch for so long, now he is forced to backpedal.
  20. CAPE
    57 here. Heard a frog when I left for work.
  21. CAPE
  22. CAPE
    Our next best chance for something other than rain looks to be in the Feb 6-10 window, as the longwave pattern transitions to more favorable. There are quite a few hints on the 0z ensembles during that period. Cold air availability looks marginal, but the atmosphere finds ways to snow in February, especially in a Nino. EPS has something cooking for the 6th.
  23. CAPE
    Little to no support for the GFS op on the GEFS, or any other guidance for the 0z cycle. Clear signal for frozen to our north. Snow tv on the back end seems doable. Maybe a little more than that up near the PA line.
  24. CAPE
    Digital blue. Gotta have it!
  25. CAPE
    I was just making a general statement. Everyone can use them at their own discretion. Imo, they are most useful when we have a discrete threat within a few days.
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