CAPE
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6z GEFS is even more impressive for the 7th wrt the surface low strength and frozen potential. Looks especially good along/west of the Fall line.
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The 10-11th potential looks to involve a significant piece of NS energy, so our area may be on the milder side with the focus for frozen further NW. Still a long way out so plenty can change. Behind that the central and eastern US may see more impressive cold. Advertised h5 look on the GEFS is favorable with indications of a ridge building over AK, and a west based -NAO. Hints of another wave at the end of the run but that's way out there.
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Both the 0z GEFS and EPS continue to signal potential storms for the 4th, 7th, and the 10-11th timeframe. The first 2 look like lows that track underneath and off the coast of VA/NC. The potential for the 10th looks more complicated, with a possible primary tracking to our west. For now I think the 7th looks the most promising for some sort of a moderate frozen/mixed event across the region given the h5 look, track, and cold air availability.
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gib·ber·ish Gibberish, also called jibber-jabber or gobbledygook, is speech that is nonsense: ranging across speech sounds that are not actual words, pseudowords, language games and specialized jargon that seems nonsensical to outsiders.
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Damn dude, you've had way more than me.
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I find little value in snowfall maps on an ens mean 8+ days out. Still trying to glean the general idea.
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I'm not sure you understand the fundamental purpose of the ensembles. Pretty sure you don't. You could google it.
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Interpretation of an ens mean vs an op run is a bit of a skill.. defo nuanced.
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Is this a bad look on the 18z GEFS? This is the look on the 18z GFS operational at h5, same time. Apparently bad though. Some of you need to do better, or stay in the damn panic thread and moan.
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Some of y'all would be better off never looking at an op run at range. Seriously.
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For those who look at the 18z GFS and think it is a crap run verbatim (Hi Ji), remember it is a single op run and we are still 8 + days out from the initial window of interest. Look at the big picture at h5- the shortwaves are on the playing field, rolling across the southern US, while the HL look is favorable(note the oranges/ reds in the right places). We just can't know the details yet.
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When the goal is snow and most of us live well east of the Allegheny front, like I said, it's super easy to be a pessimist. Boring. More rewarding to do the analysis, have fun with the tracking process, and when it pays off, fucking enjoy the hell out of it. Frankly, some here should find another hobby.
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Its easy af to be pessimistic, given our location. What's the point in doing that though? We know the potential upside when it all comes together. Lets look for the key pieces that can make that happen. They are there on guidance.
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Not by me.
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Don't spoil it, I have slow ass WB. That has been a window of interest.
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It's HH. Feeling optimistic about HH GFS. (Probably partly because this Old Fashioned is over the top good). This place needs a lift. Lets see what it do.
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You aren't kidding. Just catching up. The last part of the old thread was a mini dumpster fire. Quite a few posts belonged in the panic room thread.
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Fair amount of spread for each of those windows, including suppressed to not much of anything. Signal should get stronger in the next couple days if one of these is gonna materialize.
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I see what you did there. I like it.
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GEPS hinting at a legit NA block building westward to Baffin Island. Cold airmass underneath verbatim. 6z GEFS has the same idea.
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A bit of a longshot and probably not a big deal either way, but the last few runs of the GEFS suggest the wave that develops and slides off the coast to our south around the 2nd might be close enough for a bit of frozen, with the advertised airmass a bit colder than depicted on earlier runs. A half dozen or so members have had something. I counted 8 on the 6z GEFS. Just something to keep an eye on while we await the better chances.
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The one key ingredient for this upcoming period that has been lacking should be more readily available, thanks in part to the developing EPO ridge allowing flow southward from the Polar regions and mixing out the Pacific airmass.
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Should see those fireworks tents pop up in another month.
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This process is how it works in many cases, and in particular when there isn't an existing block in place.
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Next up- There is an indication of a wave tracking across the Gulf states for the 7-8th. Pretty far out, but there is an indication of another storm around the 11th as energy drops southeastward ahead of a developing ridge off the west coast. It shouldn't be boring over the next couple weeks. Impressive -NAO signal on the means.
