CAPE

I remember that game. I probably only watched it because of the snow.

The WAR was there from when the trough was initially positioned out west. Those +heights were absorbed into the NAO ridge as the trough shifted east, and Ralph's phobia is dissipating, so not a problem. Not technically a block at that point.

Debatable whether he sees any playing time. Probably more of a depth move with zero risk. They have Melvin Gordon as their number 3 back, who remained on the practice squad most of the season and just got elevated after the Mitchell injury.

And ofc the 12z GEFS doesn't resemble the op run for the same period where it tried to bury a deep trough into the SW. HL ridge bridge too.

I saw that too. Then I looked at the actual SSTs, and the temps near the MC are as warm or a bit warmer. Other factors favoring convection there.

Or we need other indices to overwhelm it. A significantly -AO with strong -NAO episodes help a lot. Also seeing a -EPO at the end of the ens runs. That is actually a cold look for most the lower 48 despite the pretty colors looking less impressive. Fwiw the extended products do exactly what we want to see with the blob of lower heights out west- weaken it/morph it into an Aleutian low with a ridge building out west. The latest Euro weeklies have below normal temps for the eastern third of the US from Jan 15 to Feb 18- end of the run.

Is it typical to see the SSTs so warm in that area during a strong Nino? I believe in a moderate CP event the waters around the MC tend to be colder, suppressing convection there.

A Pacific jet extension would help improve the look out west. I believe retraction is favored when the tropical convection is over the MC though. All this stuff is intertwined. If you look at the actual SSTs there, its not surprising the MJO tends to stay in the 'bad phases'.

The Ravens signing of Dalvin Cook is interesting. Cant hurt, given the lack of depth at RB with the injuries. I could see them designing a few plays for him to get him out in space- maybe similar to Keaton Mitchell. Not saying he has that kind of speed, but he should have fresh legs after rotting on the bench all season with the Jets.

That potential only exists on mathematical models, with significant uncertainty at long leads. Don't look at it and you won't be disappointed when it 'fizzles'.

Low of 22. Nice cold day ahead leading up to another heavy rain event. Colder rain this time. +trends.

This is not breaking news. Have you been paying attention?

Continuing to see indications on the means of a wave or waves forming on the thermal boundary that would be to our south behind the storm on the 15th. Should be cold enough if it were to precipitate.

Probably looking at MLK day and beyond for legit opportunities. Ensemble guidance has been very consistent with the western/central US trough and storm track to our west through next weekend. The storm around MLK day could offer some frozen potential, esp if there is a trailing wave scenario. That is the timeframe where colder air will be pressing eastward.

MJO is one of many contributing components to the overall pattern, and the magnitude of any impacts(in any one phase) are not a constant. Short answer is no. Why worry about any of this stuff?

See my previous post. TPV may very well be transient in that location. The process you describe here might have to happen in 72 hours lol. I was just pointing out the potential on the EPS for around the 18th. Might end up being nothing. Doesn't have to play out following some ideal progression though. Who knows how long this pattern will even last.

If ens guidance is correct it won't be displaced that far south for long- looks like some of the energy shifts east into the 50-50 region and then it retreats northward in a more typical location over N Hudson.

Also from my post this morning- again at 12z there is an indication of a shortwave moving eastward in the southern stream under that Baffin block.. 'Big dog' potential for around the 18th maybe?? Possibly more than a squirrel anyway..

This morning I made a post mentioning the EPS was hinting at the possibility of a following wave after the 13-14th storm, as colder air comes in behind and the boundary shifts further SE. On the 12z run there is a more notable signal for that.

Pretty sure Ravens94 was the NE MD PUMMELED!!! dude.

Looking that way on the means currently. Could end up more Miller B-ish. Still a ways out.

Pretty radical look at the end of the 6z GFS. TPV locked underneath the block and energy in the SW poised to come eastward. Anything from suppressed to a phase with NS wave(s) would be on the table. Well below avg temps for the central/eastern US as advertised.

Also phasing opportunities with a potential southern wave. Tracking waves and their timing and interactions, maybe more than usual.

Looking ahead to mid month and beyond for storm opportunities, there is a strong signal for the 13-14th window, but as discussed the trough axis is still a bit too far west this period so the favored storm track is to our west. This is far enough out to keep an eye on though. As modeled the cold will be advancing eastward during/just beyond this period. Maybe a trailing wave scenario as the boundary moves eastward around MLK day. Beyond that as modeled the h5 pattern progression should bring colder air to the east coast with an establishing NAO block and a TPV lobe located underneath. There is an indication of a southern stream shortwave moving eastward, in addition to NS vorticity associated with the southward displaced TPV. The NS probably wont be 'quiet' during this time with the TPV depicted to be that far south. There should finally be some cold though.

That Aleutian trough looks mighty strong. Pac puke flood? Wasted block!