CAPE

New edition of Euro Weeklies implies a strong west based block for 2+ weeks. Can still see it here, and in later panels.

We KU here.

You were just moaning about how bad the models are. Purely emotional reaction based on desired outcome. Just like I said lol.

Not that uncommon in certain synoptic setups. There is always uncertainty, thus why we rely on the ensembles to quantify it. The general idea for this event has been nailed for days. Emotional people who are rooting for a very specific outcome often complain that the models are 'bad'.

It was over for me yesterday at 12z. For areas SE of the Fall line the frozen potential was mostly dependent on the stronger confluence from that NS energy moving eastward into the 50-50 region, just as the wave was approaching. That proved to be a timing error on the GFS. With that shifting eastward sooner, there was really nothing to keep the wave from tracking further north and the flow from turning southeasterly out in front.

That's a top 25 list. There have been other significant snow events in early January. Had one just 2 years ago.

You talking BWI? Specifically Nino?

Kinda looking that way. I would stay though esp if its Gettysburg. Great place to hang out.

If I decide to go, I am leaning towards S PA at this point.

This is probably closer to what the outcome would be for that run. Norther + elevation ftw.

Still considering a short chase to Gettysburg or Harpers Ferry area. Only if it's all snow and 5"+. Looks like a decent bet rn. Otherwise I'll just stay here and enjoy yet another heavy rain event lol.

Explains Heisy's post above.

Front end thump potential has increased a bit for the Jan 9-10 storm over the last 2 GEFS runs, with the usual places favored in these types of events. A stronger 50-50 low is one reason. Pretty nice surface HP placement and CAD sig with precip on the doorstep of the western zones.

6z GEFS

For the coastal plain, the 0z GFS idea of weaker/souther is probably the only hope for some frozen in this setup. Snow starved lowlanders should consider taking a short trip for this one.

NWS Mount Holly is in overall agreement- A shortwave trough along the subtropical jet will eject out of the Gulf Coast region and lift across the Mid Atlantic. An associated area of low pressure will strengthen as it moves through the southeast and up the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday and into Sunday. The exact track of this surface low will determine what specific impacts there will be. It is worth mentioning that the latest deterministic guidance has shifted slightly further offshore and leaned towards a weaker system overall, potentially allowing for a slightly colder solution, albeit still not enough for an "all- snow" solution. With that said, we can expect guidance to continue the "tug-of-war" of where to place the center of this low, thus it remains in our best interest to stick closer to the consensus blend, which continues to show a low track that gives our higher elevations along the I-78 corridor the best chance for snow with a highly uncertain precip type forecast for the I-95 corridor and points south and east. Guidance should come into better focus in the next 24-48 hours as the shortwave trough responsible for this system moves over the western US and can be better sampled by upper air observations. Bottom line, this system bears watching and is setting up to bring heavy precipitation, gusty winds, and potential coastal flooding though with strong onshore flow. See hydrology section below for more details regarding rainfall and flooding potential.

I've been there before in the snow. It's great. Not been since just before Covid, but sadly I know the story of places like that that didn't survive.

Getting there Chuck. Moving towards it Chuck. Hey Chuck, well.. you know.

GEFS is finally getting there. Note the lower h5 heights shifting eastward into the 50-50 region. Legit block setting up like the EPS.

lol thanks. I'm good. If this winter goes as expected, the last 6 weeks or so of met winter should make most in this region happy. Otherwise, I chase. Kinda thinking about hanging out in Gettysburg this weekend.

There is certainly still some volatility at this stage. State Collège went from 10" at 12z to less than 2 on HH GFS. One more proportional shift SE might do the trick.

The pattern starts to look favorable prior to this, but this period(and going forward) should be our wheelhouse for potentially bigger storms with cold air in place. A classic look across the HL region, with an ideally placed and strong west based block, and a TPV underneath. EPS has been consistent in depicting this pattern for several runs.

The 12z GFS run yesterday was further south and colder. The low was 990 mb as it came off the NC coast. That run fringed PSU. Ofc that NS energy was in a good spot on that run w/more confluence, thus a colder and somewhat suppressive outcome.

Absolutely. Just look at the last 4 runs of the GFS and the shifts that occurred wrt the NS energy I was referring too. No reason to think the final outcome is suddenly nailed now.

Wave timing was always going to be especially critical in this setup, given we don't really have a block in place yet, and the antecedent air mass is only marginally cold. Several of us said it, I think you were one- the 50-50 needs to be a beast, but it also needs to be in a good spot to have the HP strong enough and not retreat too quickly.