Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    34,097

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    For around the 20th- still a generally favorable h5 look for a significant MA winter storm, but with the vortex in that position in SE Canada the heavier precip is mostly suppressed south/offshore on both the 0z GEFS and EPS. Cold wouldn't be an issue. This would be some light snow over the region verbatim.
  2. CAPE
    EPS is easily the best of the 0z ens suite for that window. Strong signal for a coastal low.
  3. CAPE
    18z GEFS pretty much aligns with the damped wave idea on the op. Less precip as it moves eastward into the MA. Not awful, but defo not the 12z run. Just to reiterate, the 12z GEFS was one of the better runs for the MA for this window. Signal for frozen through our region was quite good for this range.
  4. CAPE
    Chuck..
  5. CAPE
    That's good stuff! Not your typical pilsner. Love the name too.
  6. CAPE
    Damn dude. A tad Jelly.
  7. CAPE
    Close. The NS energy dropping in overtop damps the wave some. We know that vortex is going to be problematic, but with timing this can work.
  8. CAPE
    NS hammer dropping at 168.
  9. CAPE
    Shortwave is weaker at 150 but maintaining separation from that NS vorticity. This has a chance.
  10. CAPE
    Founders CBS. A tad bit more substantial.
  11. CAPE
    And everybody drink!
  12. CAPE
    Pretty much all the runs that have snowed on us have had limited NS interaction with our shortwave of interest, esp early on. That's the main thang to watch on HH run.
  13. CAPE
  14. CAPE
    This is my general takeaway.
  15. CAPE
    The main fail on the op was the amplifying ridge out west allowed involvement of a significant piece of that NS vorticity ribbon, which amplified the wave too much. 12z EPS looks slightly better than 0z, but still seems to favor frozen to our NW. The 12z GEFS was solid for our area. Not seeing much in the way of suppression on the members of either model, which is a tad worrisome at this range.
  16. CAPE
    That's an impressive vorticity ribbon.
  17. CAPE
    Looks like a wave slides off the SE coast on the 12z run. 6z implied a stronger southern wave and NS interaction/phasing at the right time.
  18. CAPE
    Pretty much what it did last run too.
  19. CAPE
    6z run had something for around the 20th with a great h5 look leading in so lets see
  20. CAPE
    Yes the 12z GEFS looks pretty darn good.
  21. CAPE
    Pretty much what happens yes. It would be nice if that feature were further east towards the 50-50 region, but at this juncture there is a decent chance it wont be for that window. If so it just makes the outcome we want a bit more of a challenge.
  22. CAPE
    It's not this or that or else. It can work, but need good wave timing. We do in most setups to get snow.
  23. CAPE
    Too much NS interaction at the wrong time. That's going to be an issue with the vortex in that position.
  24. CAPE
    Miami at KC playoff game in primetime being aired exclusively on Peacock is pure greed.
  25. CAPE
    I know. My post was intended for those who have been 'concerned' about it.
×
×
  • Create New...