CAPE

Worth keeping an eye on. There is literally nothing else. GFS/GEFS has been pretty persistent indicating some trailing energy sliding eastward with colder air moving in. Euro leaves it back in the SW.

One thing is for sure, the anomalously warm water in the Sea of Japan with Siberian air flowing across it is perpetually dumping snow in NW Japan. Not unusual ofc. These city folks probably can't wait for Spring, but I do love how they just keep going, business as usual. NBD. No effing road salt.

Eh, there are still multiple ways it can snow in late March. If you are talking about a big storm, then probably yes.

lol where did I say anything about sustained cold? Not happening the last half of March. But the pattern has to be such that cold enough air is available for frozen precip.

The week before looks ok at h5, but temps transition from somewhat above to normal verbatim. Could be a chance in there, esp for inland areas at elevation. At this point given how awful these super LR tools have been, more likely the good looks will be delayed, or be complete fantasy and never materialize.

For those still holding out hope, the latest edition of the weeklies suggests the h5 pattern becomes favorable (with below normal temps) the last week of March. Potentially a period to watch for a trip to the western highlands for a winter storm. For the rest of the region, a non-zero chance, but good luck.

All the recent "good" Ninas have been better to my east. Beach chase!

20" is above average in my yard. Did that 2 winters ago.

Not giving up. Its quite possible we will again see snowier than avg winters in the coming years. There will be short term irregular variations within the longer term trend.

I get it. Yesterday it was a discussion about an outcome depicted on a LR model run, so from that perspective it was in the correct thread. Knowing how things go here though, I should have responded to your 'another perfect track rainstorm' post in the other thread. We could have had our discussion/debate there. In the future my advice is to just track what's in front of us in the medium/LR threads with the understanding that the current climate regime is not the same. Not here to try and change any minds. That is futile.

I have accepted that "good" now isn't the same as in the past. The bar is lower. Already factored into my expectations. What good does it do (in the context of this thread) to constantly go on about how our current snow climo sucks compared to a couple decades ago.

The climate is changing. It goes without saying. This thread is intended for discussion about potential upcoming events, in the here and now, with the understanding that 'things are different'. We don't need to constantly be told how the outcome would have/might have been different 30 years ago. There are other threads for that sort of discussion.

I never read a single forecast discussion from a met at Mount Holly making reference to some potential epic pattern showing up on super LR guidance. There is always some degree of uncertainty beyond a few days and it grows from there. This is a given.

This is a science/fact based forum. Ones 'beliefs' aren't necessarily relevant if there is no scientific basis.

I know you said you were joking in a subsequent post, but dropping posts like "another perfect track rainstorm" isn't at all helpful without any context. The depiction on that run was practically the antithesis of a favorable synoptic setup for frozen. Not a case for your study imo.

Stop being dramatic. This is not what's happening here.

I just think certain setups can be losers for snow whether it's now or 30 years ago. As advertised, with zero blocking, that massive high off the Canadian Maritimes and a low tracking up right along the coast, the low/mid level flow is going to be screaming out of the east/southeast. You seem to want to make every event with a low to our east that doesn't produce snow some sort of a case study to validate the climate is changing, but sometimes it is just basic physics. Outcomes today can still be the same as a few decades ago. Trying too hard here.

You keep doing this. Now isn't then. Who exactly are you trying to convince?

The low track might be good, but look up top. No block/+NAO produces an inverted UL/surface from ideal. Damn near a 1050 mb high exiting stage right off of Atlantic Canada. Not a winning look for snow in our area.

Ofc the GFS/GEFS keep hinting at something around March 1, but the EPS and GEPS don't seem too interested.

I see it. Skeptical. Regardless I have passed the point of having much interest in pattern chasing. Parts of the region may very well have a shot at something mid month, but I will do the Bob Chill thing and if I see something that looks interesting inside of 7 days, I'll start paying attention.

The obvious classic example of a developing sustained NA block. Holy shit this progression was epic. We all know how it ended up. Will we ever see it again?

Could end up better, but a typical sustained NA blocking pattern that develops via a retrograding Scandi ridge I don't think would feature a south central Canada ridge immediately leading in(there should be lower h5 heights there). We have seen this same look previously this winter and the models were dead wrong on the depicted outcome, as it instead ended up a transient/weak -NAO and not a true block.

Try not to be dumb.

That certainly could happen. We don't need a sustained block in March to get some snow. Timing as usual, and some wild shit can happen with flawed patterns and shorter wavelengths.