CAPE

For the 16-17th- Looking at the individual members on the 0z EPS, about 15(30%) have the boundary to our west, which is a bit more than the 12z run. Of those members (for those that have the wave) frozen is focused to our west. The rest of the members that have a storm indicate frozen over our area or just south. Overall still a modest signal, but for those looking at the snow mean for that window, explains why it's still focused NW. The 0z GEFS has only 2-3 members implying the boundary is still to our west, and there is a somewhat stronger signal overall for frozen through our area. Compared to previous runs, seeing less of an indication for OV frozen for that period.

An unmitigated disaster. When they were 10-1 there were lots of signs and chinks in the armor. It doesn't seem there is an easy fix either. Major offseason changes most likely.

This was a bit nuts. Who knows, it could become a more common h5 configuration in our new base state. Might take a pattern like this to get enough cold to snow.

A possibility yes.

Ralph be drinkin'

The Feb 14 storm may have had a neutral NAO, but there was a -WPO and a +PNA. Big storm but wasn't good for the coastal plain. The winter of 14-15, which was back loaded, did have a predominately +NAO and was cold, but not sure it had a 'big storm', which is what PSU is interested in. That's his thing- Moose not squirrels. You need to realize that when you engage him in this stuff.

GEFS and EPS look similar on the 12z run. I thought they did at 0z too. Subjective I guess. At 8-10 day leads I am more focused on the general idea, and they have been pretty close. Snow mean again modest on both, but better on the EPS. The GEPS has the best look and outcome of the 12z ens runs today for that period.(posted earlier) Splitting hairs really. All 3 are hinting at the same idea for that window.

That heated field thing is soo lame. Like seriously.

Active southern stream on the GEPS and an active southern stream

12z GEPS for the 17th

12z GEPS has probably the strongest signal so far for a storm in the 16-17th window. It's still there on the GEFS, but with at least 5 recent op runs depicting a MA snowstorm, you would think it would be a little more prominent.

Some over analysis going on. At day 10 the general idea is the same. Have fun trying to glean more detail. There will be changes in later model cycles for that period.

It wasn't what we want for what though? He seemed to be focusing on the period where there is a signal for a wave to track underneath with colder air in place centered on the 16-17th. The snow mean is modest on both models. Precip for that period is too (for our region), but actually a bit better on the EPS. It is mostly to our SE/offshore. You can see the possibility of suppression on both. Now if you/he are referring to where the pattern ends up beyond that (towards day 15) then yeah the GEFS look is better. Not really that much different though. The differences mostly have to do with how the EPS dumps more TPV energy out west at that point, which could be in error.

The modeled 'ground truth' isn't much different wrt precip amounts in the 15-18th window with colder air in place. 0z EPS looks a little better than the 0z GEFS. Snow mean? Ok if you want to use that as an indicator for that period, they look very similar.

He is like Ji. Doesn't know ensemble guidance exists/ what the purpose is. Live and die with those op runs at long leads.

AFD from Mount Holly on the upcoming event- For Tuesday and Wednesday...A strong upper-level trough will lift across the eastern U.S. during this time frame, and it will drive a powerful surface low up the Ohio Valley and across the eastern to central Great Lakes. This will place our region on the warmer side and therefore mostly rain is expected. There is however a short window of opportunity that it starts as some snow or a mix mainly north and west of I-95 (perhaps some light accumulations across parts of the northwestern zones), however with robust warm air advection any of this will quickly change to rain. The rain will become heavy at times especially late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night before tapering off to some showers Wednesday morning. A southeasterly 925 mb jet on the order of 50-75 knots later Tuesday and Tuesday night will advect in ample moisture off the Atlantic. In addition, this flow veers to southwesterly at 500 mb and increases to 70-100 knots. The guidance shows an extensive plume of high precipitable water (1.0-1.5 inches) for this time of year connected all the way into the western Caribbean. This amount of moisture along with strong forcing for ascent will bring widespread rain (2-3 inches likely, with 4 inches possible) across the entire region with the heaviest occurring Tuesday night. A period of enhanced rainfall rates combined with already saturated ground, which will be even more swollen given snow melt across the northern areas, will significantly increase the flooding risk. The upper-level trough or closed low may take on a negative tilt Tuesday night, and this may inject some elevated instability especially closer to frontal passage and therefore a few rumbles of thunder could be possible. The thunder potential remains low confidence, but something to watch especially given the intense wind field not all that far above the surface ahead of the cold front. Some wind headlines will likely be needed especially for the coastal areas, although strong low-level warm air advection and deep moist profiles may prevent at least some of the wind from mixing down to the surface. However, with the low-level winds being southeasterly, there will likely be an area of stronger winds along the immediate coast, as a result of the decreased friction over the open waters. Overall, there is the potential for a period of strong to even locally damaging winds especially closer to the coast.

Someone should start a thread. Multiple hazards, snow not being one of them. edit- I see WW already has

AFD from Mount Holly on the upcoming event- For Tuesday and Wednesday...A strong upper-level trough will lift across the eastern U.S. during this time frame, and it will drive a powerful surface low up the Ohio Valley and across the eastern to central Great Lakes. This will place our region on the warmer side and therefore mostly rain is expected. There is however a short window of opportunity that it starts as some snow or a mix mainly north and west of I-95 (perhaps some light accumulations across parts of the northwestern zones), however with robust warm air advection any of this will quickly change to rain. The rain will become heavy at times especially late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night before tapering off to some showers Wednesday morning. A southeasterly 925 mb jet on the order of 50-75 knots later Tuesday and Tuesday night will advect in ample moisture off the Atlantic. In addition, this flow veers to southwesterly at 500 mb and increases to 70-100 knots. The guidance shows an extensive plume of high precipitable water (1.0-1.5 inches) for this time of year connected all the way into the western Caribbean. This amount of moisture along with strong forcing for ascent will bring widespread rain (2-3 inches likely, with 4 inches possible) across the entire region with the heaviest occurring Tuesday night. A period of enhanced rainfall rates combined with already saturated ground, which will be even more swollen given snow melt across the northern areas, will significantly increase the flooding risk. The upper-level trough or closed low may take on a negative tilt Tuesday night, and this may inject some elevated instability especially closer to frontal passage and therefore a few rumbles of thunder could be possible. The thunder potential remains low confidence, but something to watch especially given the intense wind field not all that far above the surface ahead of the cold front. Some wind headlines will likely be needed especially for the coastal areas, although strong low-level warm air advection and deep moist profiles may prevent at least some of the wind from mixing down to the surface. However, with the low-level winds being southeasterly, there will likely be an area of stronger winds along the immediate coast, as a result of the decreased friction over the open waters. Overall, there is the potential for a period of strong to even locally damaging winds especially closer to the coast.

Just what we need!

1.03" of rain. Currently 36 Looking forward to some sun today and tomorrow, before the next washout.

6z GEFS

If there is going to be a major/crippling east coast storm it probably occurs in Feb. Historically favored, plus the seasonal/extended tools have consistently indicated the pattern will be more conducive. The Nino overall should be weakening the second half of winter with less notable +sst anomalies in the eastern Pacific.

There seems to be a fixation on Archambault/KU with some here. Would a 6-10" storm be ok? Just asking.

Another period to watch for a potential significant storm is around the 20th or a little beyond. PNA ridge, somewhat weaker west-based -NAO, low heights in the 50-50 region. Plenty cold enough as depicted.