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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It is a literal thread the needle with wave timing. We need one piece of NS energy scooting out in front phasing into the 50-50 low to flatten the flow up top, then the southern shortwave to move east just behind, and then to keep it from sliding harmlessly eastward off the coast to our south we need the next piece of NS energy to capture it just as it approaches the coast to induce a strong low just to our southeast with plenty of lift/ dynamical cooling, but not a full phase and not too soon..
  2. CAPE
    There is an indication of 2 waves on the mean in the 12-14th window, but probably just timing differences among the members. Don't care enough at this juncture to look.
  3. CAPE
    12z GEFS likes the 13th a little more for frozen in our region than previous runs.
  4. CAPE
    There are a few ways it can work, but they all involve pretty intricate wave timing. I like what the 0z GFS did in phasing the 2 pieces of NS energy and then shifting it eastward into the 50-50 region, with the southern shortwave staying separate and lagging behind. Then the next piece of NS energy drops in and interacts with it as it approaches the coast, sharping the shortwave. That deepens the surface low in a good spot just off the coast to our south.
  5. CAPE
    That's a pretty flat ridge. Still have the low heights off Atlantic Canada, and check out the surface- pretty good look with HP in a good spot. That should be cold enough if there is a storm tracking underneath.
  6. CAPE
    The h5 pattern becomes generally favorable mid month, but it looks pretty dry until the 20th or so. Flow streams coming together overhead in the upper atmosphere inhibit lift/promote sinking via convergence/confluence.
  7. CAPE
    Mid month. As the pattern in the NA transitions towards a blocking regime, there is going to be a lot of vorticity flying around in the NS. As the block develops much of that energy will be consolidated/feed into the 50-50 low as the ridge over Greenland strengthens and builds westward. That sequence of events will promote surface HP over eastern Canada.
  8. CAPE
    ^More in agreement with the signal for frozen to our north on the GEFS. With no semblance of HP up north and a marginal airmass, it all hinges on a significant piece of northern stream energy running out in front at the right time to flatten the flow/create confluence. Didn't happen this run.
  9. CAPE
    Last few runs of the GEFS look less impressive in the NA compared to the EPS and GEPS towards PD. No idea what it means or if it even matters at this juncture. The overall idea across guidance is still on track.
  10. CAPE
    Op run at range. Although ens runs have been hinting at this outcome.
  11. CAPE
    Op run at range.
  12. CAPE
    Op run at range.
  13. CAPE
    Yeah that's not gonna help for PD. Suppression depression.
  14. CAPE
    That's a lot of cold HP lol
  15. CAPE
    Good start to HH
  16. CAPE
    After many variations the GFS gets the wave timing/interaction just right. Nice sharp southern shortwave.
  17. CAPE
    Natural consequence of perpetual negative vibes.
  18. CAPE
    I had DSL when I discovered Eastern.
  19. CAPE
    Just move to a place where indexes don't matter much. When its winter, its cold. And it just snows.
  20. CAPE
    yeah one disaster at a time!
  21. CAPE
    I will offer this as an example. Annoying in many ways, beginning with who you replied to. You are generally too sensitive and defensive. And when you make a post, have a point that is pertinent, accurate, and adds something to the discussion. You can always just leave it and move on otherwise. Can't go wrong with 'read more/post less'. There are many times I start to make a post, then rethink /evaluate it, and simply delete it.
  22. CAPE
    What's probably coming next winter is a Nina. There are variations, just like there are with Ninos. They don't all suck for snow, but a lot of folks in the MA seem to believe that is the case.
  23. CAPE
    My advice to you is don't set yourself up for disappointment. 'Epic' patterns in a Nino don't always result in prolific snow amounts.
  24. CAPE
    What is so magic about breaking 30? Who cares about predictions- just someone's opinion. Lets say the lowlands get an 8" event, a 10" event, and maybe another 3 with a minor or mixed event over the next 4-5 weeks. Would that meet your "bar" for a good winter?
  25. CAPE
    We 'get there' with one or 2 big storms. Certainly possible over the next month. Most places in the lowlands already have 8-12" on the board.
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