CAPE

Good agreement for the coldest period we have seen so far, occurring in a favorable climo period, and a pattern that is conducive for shortwaves tracking to our south. As always it will come down to wave timing/luck.

^The 0z GFS, and now 6z have it.

The 16-17th window continues to look like the first chance for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place.

25 Radiational cooling and anti-UHI doing its work here. Not that it matters in this case lol

ignore it.

You done drove in the wrong direction.

Cold day here. High of 36 after a low of 22. Currently 31. Will be lucky to see a sleet pellet before the heavy rain. Strong southerly flow with a low tracking left of the coast and a retreating cold air mass is always a loser here.

Founders CBS for HH.

Indications of shortwaves in the flow with colder air in place. Hint of some precip late on the 15th and on the 17th.

Colder air comes in sooner next weekend. Pretty cold for MLK day.

I remember that game. I probably only watched it because of the snow.

The WAR was there from when the trough was initially positioned out west. Those +heights were absorbed into the NAO ridge as the trough shifted east, and Ralph's phobia is dissipating, so not a problem. Not technically a block at that point.

Debatable whether he sees any playing time. Probably more of a depth move with zero risk. They have Melvin Gordon as their number 3 back, who remained on the practice squad most of the season and just got elevated after the Mitchell injury.

And ofc the 12z GEFS doesn't resemble the op run for the same period where it tried to bury a deep trough into the SW. HL ridge bridge too.

I saw that too. Then I looked at the actual SSTs, and the temps near the MC are as warm or a bit warmer. Other factors favoring convection there.

Or we need other indices to overwhelm it. A significantly -AO with strong -NAO episodes help a lot. Also seeing a -EPO at the end of the ens runs. That is actually a cold look for most the lower 48 despite the pretty colors looking less impressive. Fwiw the extended products do exactly what we want to see with the blob of lower heights out west- weaken it/morph it into an Aleutian low with a ridge building out west. The latest Euro weeklies have below normal temps for the eastern third of the US from Jan 15 to Feb 18- end of the run.

Is it typical to see the SSTs so warm in that area during a strong Nino? I believe in a moderate CP event the waters around the MC tend to be colder, suppressing convection there.

A Pacific jet extension would help improve the look out west. I believe retraction is favored when the tropical convection is over the MC though. All this stuff is intertwined. If you look at the actual SSTs there, its not surprising the MJO tends to stay in the 'bad phases'.

The Ravens signing of Dalvin Cook is interesting. Cant hurt, given the lack of depth at RB with the injuries. I could see them designing a few plays for him to get him out in space- maybe similar to Keaton Mitchell. Not saying he has that kind of speed, but he should have fresh legs after rotting on the bench all season with the Jets.

That potential only exists on mathematical models, with significant uncertainty at long leads. Don't look at it and you won't be disappointed when it 'fizzles'.

Low of 22. Nice cold day ahead leading up to another heavy rain event. Colder rain this time. +trends.

This is not breaking news. Have you been paying attention?

Continuing to see indications on the means of a wave or waves forming on the thermal boundary that would be to our south behind the storm on the 15th. Should be cold enough if it were to precipitate.

Probably looking at MLK day and beyond for legit opportunities. Ensemble guidance has been very consistent with the western/central US trough and storm track to our west through next weekend. The storm around MLK day could offer some frozen potential, esp if there is a trailing wave scenario. That is the timeframe where colder air will be pressing eastward.

MJO is one of many contributing components to the overall pattern, and the magnitude of any impacts(in any one phase) are not a constant. Short answer is no. Why worry about any of this stuff?