CAPE

51 Heading outside to do some Spring things before the cold and wind arrives.

Its here! March 1st. There will be a few brief colder spells over the next week to 10 days, but it looks solidly above normal on the means from mid month onward. Need some rain though.

The 0z EPS and GEFS are underwhelming for that window, then the pattern is trough out west, ridge over the east through the end of the run. Nice look for those who want Spring.

^I honestly don't remember that storm lol

Probably. There is a bit of a signal on the 0z EPS. GEFS is similar. See what the ens means look like over the next several model cycles.

Marginal airmass dynamical cooling deal. The storm will generate its own cold air!

Zachary Labe Research Physical Scientist (NOAA Federal) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Seasonal-to-Decadal Variability and Predictability Division Email: [email protected] CV Google Scholar ORCiD ResearchGate Web of Science RESEARCH INTERESTS — My current work explores the intersection of large-scale climate variability and change, extreme events, large ensembles, decadal prediction, and data science methods. In addition to academic research, I am very passionate about improving science communication through engaging data visualizations. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/26/us-climate-research-agency-noaa-cuts Target.

Eh it won't matter. The Models won't miss that critical upper air data associated with NS energy way out there. Maybe we can get another Jan 2000 surprise!

THAT CAN ONLY BE A.................... GOOD THING!! FOOL!!

LOL. Pretty rich coming from you. Stick to making your obs posts no one cares about.

Many are giddy about it. More on this here forum than you would imagine.

Orwellian times are here. Reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. (Jan 6th didn't happen).

We need to all have faith. Oligarchs know what's best for the masses.

Should have learned after last winter(and others) to be cautious about modeled 'epic' patterns. They often don't materialize as advertised and end up more transient than persistent. Our best pattern was in January and it largely delivered with persistent cold and snow otg for weeks, but could have been snowier. I wasn't as enthusiastic about the late Feb into mid March potential. I think there is still a chance for a sneaky modest event over the next 10 days though.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/curmudgeon

Pretty clear indicator winter is probably over if this is what folks are posting in the LR thread.

Not really. Even when there appears to be a decent signal on the mean, its a half dozen members that have snow for our region in the March 8-10 window. No real consistency from one model cycle to the next either. Still time, and if we get that absolute perfect timing it might work out. I kinda think there will be a smallish scale semi-dynamic system at some point that produces a few inches of wet snow-ideally timed overnight- and it will ofc be gone by noon the next day. That's typical March stuff. There is nothing about the upcoming pattern that suggests anything like the St Patty's day storm of several years back is possible, with anomalous cold and significant snow falling during the daytime.

Jan 2022?

I think it is predominately Nina climo, modified somewhat by other factors, and just some bad luck up your way. -EPO patterns can tend towards dry/cold and later development of lows that do track to our south. Even here I have been on the edge of some of the recent storms(da bomb cyclone) that have nailed the immediate coast, but have done really well with others. Two 8-10" storms this winter and the early Jan(CAPE!) storm in 2022, plus multiple other 5-7" storms since the 2016 Jan storm(which was disappointing here). The Neutral/Nino winters in that time frame have produced below avg snow here. In short, a Nina with a significant period featuring an EPO ridge has worked out well for southern/eastern parts of our subforum, even with marginal help in the AO/NAO space.

That's incredible.

Yeah the bay is bath water by then. Not to mention the flow is typically from the S/SW by that time and we cook.

Looking at the ens means again today, not all that much to be excited about snow wise. The March 8-10 window doesnt look as promising as it did a couple days ago-not that it ever looked that good- and the pattern is depicted to become more unfavorable just beyond that. Been a good winter here overall, but it could have been really good with a bit more luck. Still a chance we can score a little something. March can be fluky with snow. I would take a sloppy inch- that would get me over 20 for the season.

It most certainly is on an ensemble run. Otoh, snow maps past day 10 on an op run are completely useless.

Can we not post 336 hour snow maps from a random op run lol. Zero value. Provide some insight for the depicted setup and why its plausible that it could actually snow.