CAPE
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This logic seems silly. This is the best Euro run of the last 4. You mean if it was a bit further SE there wouldn't be that 4"+ 'jackpot'. Come on lol. That 4-5" area easily could be a bit further NW, or SE, depending on the exact location of the boundary, sharpness of the shortwave and associated dynamics. etc.
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I'll take it. The last few runs are all "weak". This is not going to be a significant event. A little snow before the Arctic blast is fine.
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DeCosta is so good lol
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As it has been for the most part.
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People tend to freak out and misinterpret a mean when they see this look. Oh noes a SER!! There are paths to victory with this advertised h5 pattern on the ensembles.
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High of 30. Currently 27. Still 95% snow cover in my wooded abode. Driving in the open areas there are some large bare spots in places mostly due to the perpetual wind thinning the snowpack, plus the sun doing its thing.
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EPS and CMC ens have been trending in that direction for late month. GEFS took a step towards that today.
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6z GEFS for late next week
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High of 32 early. Upper 20s late afternoon. Currently 23 at 6pm.
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Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface. re
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Shortwave digging
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He is who we thought he was. Panics under pressure. Holds the ball too long. Makes poor decisions. Seeing ghosts. Lucky for the Vikings the last 2 games happened.
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The EPS is hinting at a Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain towards the end of the month. This was showing up on guidance a week or so ago but then it backed off. If the EPO ridge does shift back towards the Aleutians, some help in the NA should mitigate the SER tendency.
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There are some differences in the advertised longwave pattern between the globals. Euro digs the trough more than the GFS and delays the eastward progress of the thermal boundary a bit. Shortwave energy and associated surface low track is further NW.
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Not much interest on the GEFS for Sunday-Monday.
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Is that the Tony Pann model?
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Better than 12z. Trending in the right direction, but not quite there yet.
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HH GFS be good
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Spire lol. What's the Panasonic showing?
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High of 37. 34 currently. Some meltage, but no bare areas. Being in the woods is great for holding the snowpack longer.
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There are 2 distinct potential events on the op runs though- the initial one centered on the 19th and another one a couple days later with the boundary further southeast. The ens means depict the same idea. I'm not spending time poring over each ens member to try to further interpret wave timing, whether there might be 2 or 3 waves, or how amped they are at this juncture. All that will become clearer in time.
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He has always had problems locating the ball, but its worse this season. He usually seems to have good coverage- right there to make a play- but doesnt do it or gets a PI. Probably not fixable at this point. He doesnt have the knack.
