CAPE

There are a couple waves of interest on the 12z GEFS- one around the 12th and the next for the 15th.

For me it triggers the feeling that winter will be over soon.

Funny how when Houston was blitzing like 80% of the time in the first half the week before they adjusted and ran the ball in the second half. Got them out of that real quick. Remember KC can't stop the run- Buffalo ran for 192 against them the week before. Unless the coaches were told to throw the game, someone should be fired over this. Egregious.

They needed to run the ball. That would have opened up more opportunities for intermediate routes and downfield. Because they didn't, KC was able to continue to do exactly what they wanted defensively- blanket the receivers much of the time with 6 DBs, leading to low percentage throws downfield(many overthrows on go routes). Lamar gets criticized for that but those guys were covered well, and Ravens don't have a WR other than maybe OBJ(sometimes) that can make contested catches on an intentional underthrow. Would have increased the chance for a DPI though.

The Ravens certainly did everything they could to make it happen.

I probably need to add some 'disclaimers' to my previous post to coddle those who tend to teeter on the edge of panic and have certain misconceptions. That post was simply an interpretation at 2 weeks out of the general idea from current ens guidance for the threat window around mid month- not the actual outcome. Many of our best winter storms are of the Miller B/Hybrid variety. Clearly we can't know any details about wave interactions/timing at this juncture. I think it's time to start looking at and discussing the 'hints' on guidance though. Otherwise we can just continue to post the same H5 panels over and over and geeking out about how gorgeous and epic the advertised pattern is looking going forward. Shame I felt the need to make this post, but I know how it goes here lol.

Beginning to see a persistent signal across ensemble guidance for a storm towards mid month. For now it looks a bit north/Miller B-ish. Need to watch that TPV position in conjunction with the amplified PNA/EPO ridge, as there will be NS energy dropping southward in the flow and interacting with southern waves.

Massive 50-50 low with Scandi ridge leading in.

I recall there being an east based -NAO. Wasn't the classic NA look that's for sure.

lol I really can't disagree with this.

This is probably our next trackable window. Seeing an indication of a shortwave in the southern stream with improvements in the high latitudes.

Religion is a personal thing. To each their own. Don't assume everyone wants to engage. What I meant by presumptuous.

IMO this isn't so much a Lamar problem, as it is a Harbaugh problem. He is 1 for 4 in AFC championship games, and has won 3 playoff games since winning the SB in 2013. They were undisciplined (multiple 15 yard penalties) yesterday, and he apparently approved Monken's awful game plan. Agree he is a bit of phony and very corny, and too heavy handed with the religious stuff. Not everyone is a Christian. Very presumptuous.

Need that confluence for a decent surface High and cold enough low level temps (if precip comes far enough north). Gonna be hard to win here.

Mid Feb into early March has been the target for a more favorable pattern for while now on the extended tools. That hasn't changed. Seeing it at the end of ens runs now. Getting lucky with something sooner would be a bonus but a lot would have to break right.

Would love nothing more than to see Harbaugh out and Mike McDonald the new HC. Keep Monken but get his mind right. That won't happen though, and McDonald will probably end up in Washington.

IDC. This was the AFC championship game. To get to THE game. The fucking goal. They completely deviated from their MO. Their bread and butter. Literally played right into the Chief's hands defensively. Buffalo ran all over them last week. They are 27th against the run. Ravens are the Kings of running the ball. And if you want to go pass happy, run slants and other higher percentage pass plays, not slow developing down the field plays against a good pass rush. Low percentage stuff. It was as if they were trying to lose..

Agree. Questions need to be answered properly. That was a debacle.

Roman had a HS level passing scheme. Ravens have better receivers now too. Most of the time they were blanketed yesterday. Monken played right into the strength of their defense. Tried to trick em I guess by just flinging passes downfield all game and refusing to run it against a defense that doesn't stop the run. Mind boggling.

Around mid month is probably the next shot at something after the 5th-6th. The massive Hudson ridge is gone with an improving NA and out west there is a PNA ridge with STJ undercutting. Hint of waves ejecting eastward. Have to see how much cold might be available.

You have zero control over the outcome of a professional sporting event. Same with the weather. I am sure you have other sources of happiness.

Yep. One of the 3 carries for Gus. Only weakness of the Chiefs D- stopping the run.

He isn't getting fired. Nor is Harbaugh. Doesn't matter what I think.

I suppose if you don't want to see the Mahomeboy-Swifties win, SF is the best bet.