CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Damn dude. A tad Jelly.
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Close. The NS energy dropping in overtop damps the wave some. We know that vortex is going to be problematic, but with timing this can work.
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NS hammer dropping at 168.
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Shortwave is weaker at 150 but maintaining separation from that NS vorticity. This has a chance.
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Founders CBS. A tad bit more substantial.
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And everybody drink!
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Pretty much all the runs that have snowed on us have had limited NS interaction with our shortwave of interest, esp early on. That's the main thang to watch on HH run.
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This is my general takeaway.
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The main fail on the op was the amplifying ridge out west allowed involvement of a significant piece of that NS vorticity ribbon, which amplified the wave too much. 12z EPS looks slightly better than 0z, but still seems to favor frozen to our NW. The 12z GEFS was solid for our area. Not seeing much in the way of suppression on the members of either model, which is a tad worrisome at this range.
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That's an impressive vorticity ribbon.
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Looks like a wave slides off the SE coast on the 12z run. 6z implied a stronger southern wave and NS interaction/phasing at the right time.
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Pretty much what it did last run too.
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6z run had something for around the 20th with a great h5 look leading in so lets see
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Yes the 12z GEFS looks pretty darn good.
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Pretty much what happens yes. It would be nice if that feature were further east towards the 50-50 region, but at this juncture there is a decent chance it wont be for that window. If so it just makes the outcome we want a bit more of a challenge.
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It's not this or that or else. It can work, but need good wave timing. We do in most setups to get snow.
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Too much NS interaction at the wrong time. That's going to be an issue with the vortex in that position.
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Miami at KC playoff game in primetime being aired exclusively on Peacock is pure greed.
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I know. My post was intended for those who have been 'concerned' about it.
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Yeah that is a really flat ridge as depicted- more of an indication of slightly higher than avg h5 heights. Not a mild look in late January given the other features in place.
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Yep, below normal surface temps in the east for that timeframe.
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For those with concerns about the pattern breaking down/degrading for late month, the last few ens runs have trended better. After the -NAO retrogrades/decays, TPV energy drops southward in its place, as the 20th storm moves into the 50-50 domain with ridging redeveloping into GL. Some of this is facilitated by improvement in the Pacific. The NPAC low shifts and strengthens just south of the Aleutians in a more favorable position to allow a ridge to build into western NA.
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The synoptic setup for around the 20th still looks interesting. Checks a lot of boxes for a winter storm in the MA, and there is an indication of a southern stream shortwave interacting with NS energy riding overtop the ridge.
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I think so. It probably wouldn't be a cutter- in the case of the EPS members that indicate frozen to our west, that implies the wave is moving along the boundary before it progresses eastward enough. More of a timing thing between the wave and advancement of the colder airmass.
