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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    The biggest difference to me for next week is the sharpness and dig of the NS vorticity on the Euro compared to the GFS. The degree of interaction with energy in the flow underneath it induces a stronger surface low sooner/further south. 18z GFS took a step in the right direction compared to the 12z run, with a more notable vort max that is less broad and strung out.
  2. CAPE
    A Pacific jet extension sets up a favorable Pacific for the potential storm around the 20th. An extended NPAC Jet is generally favored in a Nino, and the MJO forcing moving away from the MC will help to facilitate it, resulting in a +PNA with the NE Pac low moving into a better location near the Aleutians.
  3. CAPE
    Mean reflects the same general idea as the op. Doesn't quite gets its act together in time. Long way to go on this one.
  4. CAPE
  5. CAPE
    Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile.
  6. CAPE
    Different setup. Legit cold air pressing SE, and in place. An overamped wave could still mess it up some for the lowlands.
  7. CAPE
    Someone else can do the snow maps
  8. CAPE
  9. CAPE
    Miller A incoming on the EPS for the 16th
  10. CAPE
    That's busy. A lot of vorticity interplay going on.
  11. CAPE
    It was close. A bit discombobulated and came together a tad late.
  12. CAPE
    Given the issues up top, this is damn near a perfect run imo. Amplification happens at the right time and not too amped. Like the GFS, improvement in the 50-50 region leading in.
  13. CAPE
  14. CAPE
    Improvement over Atlantic Canada. Less amplified wave probably has a lot to do with that.
  15. CAPE
    Getting a graupel shower here on the west side of Easton.
  16. CAPE
    Seeing hints of a storm along the east coast for the 20th, most notably on the EPS.
  17. CAPE
    EPS and GEPS have a signal for low pressure off the NC coast for the 16th. Difficult to see any indication on the GEFS.
  18. CAPE
    Getting the heaviest rain of the storm now with this line moving through. Sounds like a summer downpour. 1.78"
  19. CAPE
    Pretty close match to 12z. Timing a bit different.
  20. CAPE
    Mean looks nearly identical to the 12z run to me. Don't really care about a control run ever. It's either off on a tangent or similar to the op. So go with the op.
  21. CAPE
    58 and pouring with this line moving through. Wind gusts to probably 40. 1.3" so far.
  22. CAPE
    Inaccurate interpretation.
  23. CAPE
    Who suggested that?
  24. CAPE
    Long range looks just a bit conflicted on the GEFS. Don't care to pore over the members. The upshot on the LR mean is maybe a mediocre late month period at worst. NA looks ok. The Pacific looks serviceable or better. Verbatim average temps in the east. My wag is it ends up avg or colder than avg.
  25. CAPE
    Not looking big dog at this juncture on the GEFS, but the 20th still looks favorable overall. The mean seems to imply a moderate event is doable.
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