CAPE

If the 6z GFS has the right idea this could end up a 2-4" deal across the region. Surface temps are dicey on the CMC SE of the fall line with precip ongoing Tuesday, and the NAMs bring the 850 0c line right up to the fall line. Could be mixy/end as rain for eastern areas in that case. GFS and Euro imply all snow with temps around 32-33 towards the end for the lowlands. NW areas probably end up with better ratios with temps staying a bit colder. PSU will probably get his 6.

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The 0z EPS still implies surface low development a bit too far north and late for our latitude, but notable improvement on the mean.

Very notable and important trend over the last few runs imo.

18z EPS NE MD P... not really

Latest blend. Incremental improvements over the last couple runs.

If they win and everything goes as planned with the other AFC matchups, Texans would be the Ravens opponent in the divisional round. They played the Texans first game of the season and of Stroud's NFL career and it was ugly for them. Would be completely different this time. That team is on the come and scary. Ravens have zero excuses this time regardless of who they play though. Top seed and one n done again and Harbaugh should be fired.

I made 2 posts related to this in this thread today. Do a quick look through and read them. One is just a page or so back.

For those interested in trying a site to watch the game tonight and bypass the Peacock-NFL money grab, try this. It works for the Browns-Texans game, and there is a link to the game tonight. Beware it is spammy with pop-up 'traps', but if you have a knack for navigating though that crap it works. Best you can hope for for free. There is a bit of a delay from the live broadcast but who cares. https://top.nflstreamlinks.com/sports/american-football/0/nfl

Unfortunately this outcome aligns with what the ensembles have been persistently signaling since this became a 'window of interest'. I've made enough posts about it so I'll just shut up now and hope for the best like everyone else lol. We at least have time on our side.

Speaking of.. the latest edition is a damn near perfect h5 depiction. It has been very consistent with this look overall for the back half of winter. -NAO develops earlier but this period is where the pattern really becomes mature. Hard to see on this view but that is a west based -NAO.

Not really concerned no. TPV in a good spot and my guess is -NAO episodes will be more prevalent in Feb. Euro weeklies have been persistently advertising it and that tool has performed quite well this winter so far.

Hell of a ridge bridge between the retrograding -NAO and the PNA ridge progressing eastward. A factor that could contribute to the 20th storm potential coming together too late/offshore. If it amps enough and develops a wave break in time the GFS scenario might be a real possibility. Also would give us our coldest temps in a long time followed quickly by a late Jan warm up. Any January 'thaw' looks short lived though as the advertised pattern reshuffles to a -EPO/+PNA look for the end of the month. Colder air should be in place again by the beginning of Feb.

snowman19?

Won't be watching that unless I can find it on some spammy online gambling site. Fuck peacock and the NFL.

The course is based on AB SLC 500s. I have experience with GE, Siemens, Automation Direct as well. Years ago I worked in manufacturing, then I got a Comp Sci degree and ultimately got into teaching.

Automation. Specifically PLCs.

lol not really debbing. We are kinda due for a dry spell though, so wouldn't it be just our luck if it happened when we finally get legit cold in place.

I still love snow, but it can also be an annoyance. Has zero impact on my happiness. I like to track because I appreciate the physics and complexity of the atmosphere. Large scale fluid mechanics is cool.

0.93" Bring the cold and dry

I'm teaching a class all week so the best I can do to 'enjoy' it is driving in it or looking out a window on a break lol. If we get a couple inches and its cold enough to stick around I might be able to get an evening hike in.

Seems every path leads me to nowhere... From one of the best songs of the Grunge era. But yeah, given our latitude and lack of elevation, there are always paths to failure. We always need some degree of luck to get snow.

I haven't had jack shit here yet, so 1-2 works for me. I'll take a coating and like it.

6z GEFS

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