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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Forecast here is less than a half inch today and 1-3 overnight. Qpf is trending lower over this way across guidance. Not too worried about temps. At this point only the Euro has over a quarter inch. 28 here currently.
  2. CAPE
    The chase is over. He already sees the back end. The man needs his digital blue.
  3. CAPE
    Fixed
  4. CAPE
    3-5 here between the Euro and GFS. Way good. Reality will be 2-3. Still way good.
  5. CAPE
    Getting that TD before halftime was big though. Long way to go.
  6. CAPE
    love to see it
  7. CAPE
    Something like this is probably what we need. I don't see how it gets better than this. Need the energy embedded in the flow overtop the ridge to phase with TPV vorticity and sharpen and really dig. The PNA ridge axis is also a pretty important factor here. The southern stream is just meh. Has looked that way forever with this threat. No matter what it seems the tendency is for the low to form a bit late and strengthen offshore. Need it to pop to our south and not at our latitude to have a legit chance.
  8. CAPE
    I got sidetracked and had to run some errands. Just getting around to it. Probably for the best lol.
  9. CAPE
    Agree. GEM and NAM have been dry slotting here in addition to some temp issues for Tuesday. GEM backed off some at 12z.
  10. CAPE
    I have my Margarita now.
  11. CAPE
    GFS is MINT. No temp/mixing/dry slot issues at all.
  12. CAPE
    Some passing flakes here. Looks like Kent and Queen Anne's county had a nice burst of snow tv. Temp down to 37.
  13. CAPE
    No. Too early. I'm heading out for a bit so I will not be present for the pbp.
  14. CAPE
    CMC has been more amped/warmer, but not as pronounced as the NAM. It's probably doing its typical over-amping thing. 12z Euro is an important run to me. It had my area warming more w less precip for the second half of the event, a tick towards the CMC. I doubt any of this impacts areas west of I-95.
  15. CAPE
    Exactly lol.
  16. CAPE
    Still pissed they rescheduled the Buffalo game. That was my excuse to drink early.
  17. CAPE
    Margarita in hand.
  18. CAPE
    Look at the CMC at the surface and 925. It has largely been doing the same thing as the latest NAM runs. This has to do with the flow between the developing LP and the HP off to the east(not ideal), and more amplification of the TPV vort. We have said all along the situation was sensitive due to the presence of the TPV and lack of a 50-50 low. GFS has the low forming a little further southeast, not as amplified. Look at the 925 mb wind speed/flow direction compared to the Canadian.
  19. CAPE
    GFS is super solid for the region. It needs to hold. Biggest run of our miserable, snow starved lives coming soon!
  20. CAPE
    The legit cold comes in just behind this wave.
  21. CAPE
    CMC has been doing that but limiting the warming to the Fall Line east. There is even a subtle trend for low level warming over the last few runs of the Euro, but to a much lesser degree.
  22. CAPE
    My advice is to stop labeling potential storms Miller A, B, Z whatever. It's an oversimplification(and plain wrong in many cases) and some here seem to have an actual phobia of MILLER B. Not useful in the synoptic discussion.
  23. CAPE
    GEFS continues to advertise a favorable Pacific look in the LR. Long way out but there is a signal for a storm involving southern stream energy in the flow under the western ridge.
  24. CAPE
    6z GEFS pretty closely matches the op, which is expected especially at this range. Looking at the individual members, I would probably rather be on the NW side of that max snow area.
  25. CAPE
    It's more a case of being further east/NE, esp with the Euro/EPS.
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