CAPE

Might be too much of a good thing though.

For the storm potential for around the 5th- plenty of spread among the members, from crushed south to a track much further north. The outcome mostly hinges on the amplified Hudson ridge and how strong of a vortex gets caught underneath as the anticyclonic wave break occurs. If that vortex is displaced southward of 50-50, the wave moving eastward in the southern stream will tend to be suppressed southward or dampen and weaken as it comes east. If that vortex is weaker/further north, the shortwave can track further north. At this juncture, well ofc we just cant know. The disparity among the members can pretty clearly be seen in this panel-

Straight off the latest GFS op. Gotta be right.

I grabbed that from Google images lol, but I am going to pour it in a glass like that(minus the logo)

About to open this bad boy for HH. Got it for 22 bucks which is a actually a bargain.

Awesome. It really is worth it, and even 12 bucks a bottle isn't really out of line. Get it cold, then sip it slow, and savor it- as it warms and opens up, the complex notes become more apparent. Enjoy it!

The potential storm for the 5th is showing signs of being a southern slider. Have to see about temps but the snow mean has ticked up to our south. I made a post this morning illustrating why this storm may track further south, or even dampen/weaken as it moves towards the SE coast. Long way to go though, and lots of details to be worked out.

High of 73. 69 now.

72 bugs frogs TORCH!

68

Could head out to Canaan to chase an inch?

62 here. Was 57 when I went to bed. I hear frogs.

0z GEFS- pretty strong signal for low pressure off the southeast coast for the 5th.

The amplifying Hudson ridge and associated wave break forces a lot of vorticity southward, developing a strong vortex underneath. This may ultimately act to dampen/force southward the shortwave ejecting eastward for the Feb 5th potential. This is still pretty far out so hard to know details, but the general idea looks similar on the GEFS. These wave (breaking) interactions help to evolve the HL pattern from an amped central Canada ridge into a developing -NAO.

Latest extended products(Euro, GFS, CMC) all have that look for around PD.

Such toxicity in this thread! (looking at you, Yoda) And for what? It's not even a real event.

This has been showing up on guidance for awhile now. Probably our first legit shot at something, despite marginal cold air availability.

These super LR tools can't 'see' discrete threats. Only thing they are good for is indicating the general longwave pattern. From that, we can glean the potential for cold and snow. Goddamn snow maps lol.

We need a new thread! Tracking the wrong damn thing.

More dig further west under the anticyclonic wave break compared to 12z, and we get this.

I can see this is gonna be fun. Not even HH yet. Someone might want to ban me from this thread.

NAM onboard

Latest blend.

Lamar needs to prove he can get it done against snow tv. Mahomes won't make it easy though.

I chased an early Jan beach blizzard at Rehoboth in 2017. Got 5-6" in my yard from that storm, and there was a couple other smaller events. Wasn't awful, at least over here.