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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    6z GEFS for the 20th
  2. CAPE
    STJ undercutting the western ridge. EPS depicts a pretty active southern stream with indication of h5 shortwaves in the flow.
  3. CAPE
    0z EPS has a -EPO/+PNA in the LR with a well placed Aleutian low. That's the type of pattern that can inject Arctic air into the flow and send it southward.
  4. CAPE
    That low track is pretty far offshore- looks like an inverted trough type deal.
  5. CAPE
    And this is how it can work- we get that interaction and enough dig at just the right time to induce low pressure at the coast. Its a glancing blow though and a great outcome for north of Philly to SNE.
  6. CAPE
    This window has held potential for awhile now because of the advertised favorable h5 setup. I have been monitoring it ever since it showed up on the ens guidance, and one key missing component has been any southern stream energy of significance. The primary energy for the possible storm is embedded in the flow overtop the western ridge. That can work if it digs far enough south, but we need some NS energy associated with the TPV to get involved. By this time it is shifting into eastern Canada, with the tendency for interaction/a phase to occur a little late for the MA. Also doesn't help that the PNA ridge axis is modeled to shift eastward during this time. The ens means have been very consistent with a signal for low pressure forming around our latitude and strengthening as it moves northeastward offshore.
  7. CAPE
  8. CAPE
    Latest NBM. Slow bleed is picking up now. Need the 0z runs to start turning this around!
  9. CAPE
  10. CAPE
    I'll crawl first. White rain here with a slushy trace so far. An inch would be glorious.
  11. CAPE
    With timing differences and possibly 2 waves, this is a better depiction. Still not great, but the mean implies 1-2".
  12. CAPE
    I haven't had a drink yet. What's wrong with me? And who the fuck started this thread?
  13. CAPE
    Probably rain. Gray is where its at!
  14. CAPE
    We always get too high on the weenie runs, but take a step back and look at the setup- we have tracked this threat for a long time, and it has always been precarious with that vortex sitting up top and cold pressing, but no 50-50. Classic thread the needle deal. 2-4 is realistic and still doable.
  15. CAPE
    Realistically this has looked like a light to moderate event. Can still pull that off.
  16. CAPE
    18z GEFS doesn't look bad y'all.
  17. CAPE
    Ooh I get it now- this is the 'total obliteration (of our hopes and dreams) is coming' thread!
  18. CAPE
  19. CAPE
    Schism. Best Tool song ever imo. Those dudes are good. I used to watch them a lot.
  20. CAPE
    Considering recent Euro runs and the latest GFS run have not exactly been stellar, not bad.
  21. CAPE
    The latest blend for the early week storm. Still solid.
  22. CAPE
    You don't think Mason Rudolph will be throwing lasers through the wind and blowing snow in Buffalo?
  23. CAPE
    There is a frontrunner piece of vorticity, then the stronger piece comes in behind. If that digs further south and the coastal low pops off the NC coast instead of DE, we are probably referring to this as a 'dual low structure' instead of a Miller B. We just need a little more dig in general, regardless of whether there is an initial weaker low or not.
  24. CAPE
  25. CAPE
    Coastal pops east of DE. A bit too far north. Some snow verbatim though.
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