CAPE

A bit of a drop off from 12z.

The mean kinda reflects what the op did.

12z GEFS a bit further south/offshore compared to 6z.

Frozen on frozen. Pretty rare. I'll take it.

Updated morning AFD from Mount Holly- A challenging forecast for the long term this morning. Ensemble and deterministic models indicate an upper level low located just east of Hudson Bay Monday will gradually circle over the bay and southwards of it into Wednesday night. While this occurs, an upper level trough axis over the northern central CONUS Monday is forecast to dig southeastwards with time before moving generally eastward thereafter. This trough axis will look to be directly over or near the Mississippi River Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night before swinging through the northeastern CONUS perhaps during the time frame of Wednesday. At the surface level, this upper level pattern corresponds to high pressure in control of region Monday followed by coastal low pressure development off of the southeastern coast of the CONUS Monday night into Tuesday. Following development of the coastal low pressure system, the upper level pattern supports the coastal low moving northeastwards with time while strengthening due to increased baroclinic support. High pressure is likely to build in over the eastern CONUS thereafter as indicated by the upper level pattern. Though the coastal low pressure will remain the focus of the long term, it still remains too early to discuss the exact details regarding the development and track of the system. There is a large spread among deterministic guidance on the exact track the coastal low pressure will take, making for a challenging forecast. If the low stays closer to the eastern coast of the CONUS, it means our region could see precipitation Monday night through at least Tuesday night. If the low is further offshore, the region could see no precipitation at all. There is one detail where there is some confidence however. If coastal low pressure is able to bring precipitation to the region during the Monday night into Wednesday time frame, it will likely be in the form of mostly frozen precipitation for the region. The overall synoptic pattern indicates there will plenty of cold air available this time around to wrap into the system, i.e., a snow event may be on the horizon for the region.

It's never just one thing. Subtle differences in the interaction between the AK wave and energy on the west side of the TPV plus PNA ridge orientation/axis is different between the 2 models. Hopefully all this analysis becomes a moot point soon.

The fundamental problem continues on the Euro/EPS. That piece of energy (A) which is largely absent on other guidance, initially contributes to de-amplification of the PNA ridge, and then a piece of energy associated with the TPV(B) starts to phase with it, further de-amplifying. Result is the trough can't deepen nor turn neutral/negative in time as it progresses eastward.. Less dig/amplification, weaker wave, too progressive. My wag is this depiction is in error to some degree and will correct, probably suddenly, over a couple runs. Lets effing hope.

LP strengthens some as it moves NE but too far offshore.

6z EPS a bit further southeast.

If you compare the 6z Euro to the 0z Euro for the same timeframe, there isn't much difference wrt the key features. You are comparing apples to oranges here.

It didn't.

Op runs yes. Ens goes out to 144. Still waiting for 6z ens.

Hard to tell at 90. Really need to see how the shortwave energy coming ashore on the S coast of AK behaves beyond this point. Still wants to dig.

NBM keeps getting better

Let it finish dude lol

Strong signal on the ens means for at least a moderate (mostly) snow event. The EPS has more of a light event for now. The primary issue with the Euro is the sharp piece of energy that it digs southward along the coast of Western Canada downstream of the ridge building into AK- that initially de-amplifies the PNA ridge, but later in the progression it tries to phase it with a piece of TPV energy, and that turns the trough more positive at the point where it needs to be neutral. Lets just hope it squeezes more of that energy northward in future runs.

Still a mess of vorticity lol. GFS pops a low associated with the initial energy that runs out in front then pops a second one over NC as that NS energy digs in and phases.

Easily the best GEFS snow mean for this potential event region wide.

In reality there would probably be a lot of sleet along I-95 with that outcome. Just another op run though.

18z GEFS looks good

More amped is precarious especially for I-95 east without a locked in 50-50 low(not happening) and the associated confluence to place the surface HP in a favorable spot. Probably need something in between this outcome and the Euro op. Kind of goes without saying lol.

For you lol.

I have a class to teach. Tbh, I wouldn't even be able to enjoy this one. Still want some damn snow though.

100% In the end, it will probably screw me though lol.

Too tight here. Not looking for a sleetfest.