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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Lamar needs to prove he can get it done against snow tv. Mahomes won't make it easy though.
  2. CAPE
    I chased an early Jan beach blizzard at Rehoboth in 2017. Got 5-6" in my yard from that storm, and there was a couple other smaller events. Wasn't awful, at least over here.
  3. CAPE
    No way to know the exact character of the ENSO event or how the winter will play out. Get a few weeks where the Aleutian ridge morphs into a -EPO and we might have a January 2022 type period.
  4. CAPE
    Best model ever.
  5. CAPE
    Yeah and just saying 'east of the Fall line' doesn't work either. My yard is well east of the Fall line and there have been many enjoyable winter storms in March since I have lived here. Not sure about double digit snow events, but who cares especially in March.
  6. CAPE
    @brooklynwx99 Mint.
  7. CAPE
    Lots of action in the southern stream on that run. And yeah it looks like the NAO will become more negative towards mid month.
  8. CAPE
    March gonna be a snow month again. The best h5 looks on the extended tools are late Feb-mid March.
  9. CAPE
    The longwave pattern becomes quite favorable by Feb 10. The 6z GEFS teleconnections: -AO, neutral NAO trending negative, -EPO/WPO, slightly +PNA.
  10. CAPE
    I'm guessing he realizes southward displaced jet extensions are common during Nino events, although it comes across otherwise. Ofc he has been telling people extended jet = torch for so long, now he is forced to backpedal.
  11. CAPE
    57 here. Heard a frog when I left for work.
  12. CAPE
  13. CAPE
    Our next best chance for something other than rain looks to be in the Feb 6-10 window, as the longwave pattern transitions to more favorable. There are quite a few hints on the 0z ensembles during that period. Cold air availability looks marginal, but the atmosphere finds ways to snow in February, especially in a Nino. EPS has something cooking for the 6th.
  14. CAPE
    Little to no support for the GFS op on the GEFS, or any other guidance for the 0z cycle. Clear signal for frozen to our north. Snow tv on the back end seems doable. Maybe a little more than that up near the PA line.
  15. CAPE
    Digital blue. Gotta have it!
  16. CAPE
    I was just making a general statement. Everyone can use them at their own discretion. Imo, they are most useful when we have a discrete threat within a few days.
  17. CAPE
    Eh, it's yet another example of the craving for instant gratification.
  18. CAPE
    Snow means suck. They are for the lazy. Do the analysis upstairs or watch Bob fucking Turk.
  19. CAPE
    Banter
  20. CAPE
    WDI
  21. CAPE
    This h5 look has KU potential. Surface depiction has LP in the gulf states moving northeastward along the NC coast.
  22. CAPE
    IMBY game lad. Just the way it is, and will always be here. Plenty of disparity across our region since 2016. I traveled an hour to experience 2 great beach snowstorms(one a blizzard), then stayed home in Jan 22 for 3 warning criteria events. Will probably suck here for a few upcoming winters, while your area does better. I will probably have to travel to get snow. How it goes in the MA outside of owning a place in the western highlands. Move, be willing to travel, or accept and enjoy what you get at home.
  23. CAPE
    It's kind of all over the place with the tiny little jackpots moving around from run to run. The GEFS is pretty steadfast that this is a north of here event for frozen, like the other 2 ensembles. This has the feel of maybe some snow tv for our region late Sunday night/Monday morning. I'm cool with that. Better things lie ahead.
  24. CAPE
    Most likely. All 3 ens means at 12z have a strong signal for snow across PA and into SNE. EPS is the most robust now with what the 12z op did, and would get some snow into far N MD.
  25. CAPE
    Similar to the GFS, it would need to come together a little faster and further south for our region. The general setup has looked interesting even at range. Lack of cold air has been the big issue. HP is in a nice spot- important with a marginal airmass. Verbatim the Euro is a paste bomb and it mostly works because of the quickly strengthening low close to the coast. Places that get snow would be rain initially then flip to heavy wet snow with column cooling.
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