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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    NPAC jet extensions are more prevalent/expected in a Nino, and literally favor a +PNA. So that is NOT in and of itself the 'cause' of the warmth. The AO is neutral, and the NAO is positive. Shift those indices negative with that jet extension and we have a much more favorable/colder h5 pattern for the beginning of Feb. None of this stuff happens in isolation.
  2. CAPE
    Ensembles have something trackable for late next week into the weekend with consolidated energy in the STJ undercutting the western ridge and moving eastward. There is a bit of a 50-50 low leading in but with no NA blocking it will be on the move. Not a bad look at the surface with some indication of HP to the N and a low developing on the NC coast. The big problem is lack of cold at this point.
  3. CAPE
  4. CAPE
    High of 27 after a low of 13. Currently 20. need more days like this.
  5. CAPE
    Once I get past my busy period at work I am hoping to head out there. That probably coincides with the upcoming advertised milder period unfortunately lol.
  6. CAPE
    I suppose the general consistency across guidance has bolstered their confidence, and there is an increasing signal over the past few runs of the NBM for 2-4"+ from N DE into central NJ.
  7. CAPE
    Mark Andrews was a full participant today. I never imagined he could play in the divisional round, but maybe?
  8. CAPE
    Mount Holly with a WWA for central/northern DE, eastern PA, and most of NJ. 1-3/2-5 deal from south to north. A bit of waxing and waning the last few days, but this is the general outcome guidance has been consistently depicting. 1-2 here is fine with me. Never expected anything more with this synoptic setup. This DFH WWS is stellar.
  9. CAPE
    don't forget the Spire
  10. CAPE
    9z Closer. In the blue here.
  11. CAPE
    Latest blend
  12. CAPE
    PDIII
  13. CAPE
    Might not be exactly what we were expecting, but after maybe a one week milder period, this type of pattern can get us back to normal pretty quick. As is, it looks somewhat like 2015, but there are hints of Scandi ridging retrograding. Latest Euro weeklies depict a longwave pattern progression from that^ to this for mid Feb. Can kick? Maybe. Subjective. I don't see any indication of a shit the blinds pattern going forward. My wag is we see a -NAO episode Feb into March.
  14. CAPE
    NBM has a signal for an inch or so. This has ticked up some over the last few runs. Maybe we can pull off a 1-3 deal.
  15. CAPE
    This storm is what we thought it was. Ens guidance overall has been very consistent depicting late/ mostly offshore low development. Wildcard is the Norlun aspect, which we do so well at our latitude.
  16. CAPE
    3" when I went to bed with snow tapering off. Currently 28 with light freezing rain.
  17. CAPE
    2.3" Actually had some moderate snow with decent flakes the last hour. Dry slot not too far to the south per radar but hanging in there.
  18. CAPE
    Pretty sure there is at least one flake in Georgetown.
  19. CAPE
    About the same here. Hoping to top 2" before this lifts northward and transitions to a light mix.
  20. CAPE
    I dunno man. Radar looks pretty decent to the SW. Better than depicted on most guidance. Probably another couple hours of steady light snow.
  21. CAPE
    Deck pic
  22. CAPE
    25 and close to an inch after 4 hours. Defo not any stellar dendrites with this lol.
  23. CAPE
    The trends across guidance today have not been good for here overnight. Less and less precip. Hope I can break an inch lol.
  24. CAPE
    26 with steady light snow. Snowing hard but small flakes. 0.3" so far. Pretty out. Its been a couple years.
  25. CAPE
    Very light snow when I left home. Steady light snow with a light coating in Easton. 26
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