CAPE

That's an impressive vorticity ribbon.

Looks like a wave slides off the SE coast on the 12z run. 6z implied a stronger southern wave and NS interaction/phasing at the right time.

Pretty much what it did last run too.

6z run had something for around the 20th with a great h5 look leading in so lets see

Yes the 12z GEFS looks pretty darn good.

Pretty much what happens yes. It would be nice if that feature were further east towards the 50-50 region, but at this juncture there is a decent chance it wont be for that window. If so it just makes the outcome we want a bit more of a challenge.

It's not this or that or else. It can work, but need good wave timing. We do in most setups to get snow.

Too much NS interaction at the wrong time. That's going to be an issue with the vortex in that position.

Miami at KC playoff game in primetime being aired exclusively on Peacock is pure greed.

I know. My post was intended for those who have been 'concerned' about it.

Yeah that is a really flat ridge as depicted- more of an indication of slightly higher than avg h5 heights. Not a mild look in late January given the other features in place.

Yep, below normal surface temps in the east for that timeframe.

For those with concerns about the pattern breaking down/degrading for late month, the last few ens runs have trended better. After the -NAO retrogrades/decays, TPV energy drops southward in its place, as the 20th storm moves into the 50-50 domain with ridging redeveloping into GL. Some of this is facilitated by improvement in the Pacific. The NPAC low shifts and strengthens just south of the Aleutians in a more favorable position to allow a ridge to build into western NA.

The synoptic setup for around the 20th still looks interesting. Checks a lot of boxes for a winter storm in the MA, and there is an indication of a southern stream shortwave interacting with NS energy riding overtop the ridge.

I think so. It probably wouldn't be a cutter- in the case of the EPS members that indicate frozen to our west, that implies the wave is moving along the boundary before it progresses eastward enough. More of a timing thing between the wave and advancement of the colder airmass.

For the 16-17th- Looking at the individual members on the 0z EPS, about 15(30%) have the boundary to our west, which is a bit more than the 12z run. Of those members (for those that have the wave) frozen is focused to our west. The rest of the members that have a storm indicate frozen over our area or just south. Overall still a modest signal, but for those looking at the snow mean for that window, explains why it's still focused NW. The 0z GEFS has only 2-3 members implying the boundary is still to our west, and there is a somewhat stronger signal overall for frozen through our area. Compared to previous runs, seeing less of an indication for OV frozen for that period.

An unmitigated disaster. When they were 10-1 there were lots of signs and chinks in the armor. It doesn't seem there is an easy fix either. Major offseason changes most likely.

This was a bit nuts. Who knows, it could become a more common h5 configuration in our new base state. Might take a pattern like this to get enough cold to snow.

A possibility yes.

Ralph be drinkin'

The Feb 14 storm may have had a neutral NAO, but there was a -WPO and a +PNA. Big storm but wasn't good for the coastal plain. The winter of 14-15, which was back loaded, did have a predominately +NAO and was cold, but not sure it had a 'big storm', which is what PSU is interested in. That's his thing- Moose not squirrels. You need to realize that when you engage him in this stuff.

GEFS and EPS look similar on the 12z run. I thought they did at 0z too. Subjective I guess. At 8-10 day leads I am more focused on the general idea, and they have been pretty close. Snow mean again modest on both, but better on the EPS. The GEPS has the best look and outcome of the 12z ens runs today for that period.(posted earlier) Splitting hairs really. All 3 are hinting at the same idea for that window.

That heated field thing is soo lame. Like seriously.

Active southern stream on the GEPS and an active southern stream

12z GEPS for the 17th