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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    I don't see any sudden degradation or can kicking with the pattern progression heading towards mid Feb. Compare the latest GEFS for around the 12th to 5 runs ago. Latest run looks better to me.
  2. CAPE
    You both need to chill, or I don't think either of you will make it. And your WAR phobia has surfaced again.
  3. CAPE
    At least the GFS is offering us a consolation prize before it literally crushes our hopes and dreams lol.
  4. CAPE
    The takeaway from the 0z model suite(including the 6z GEFS) is a storm track a bit too far south for our area. Plenty of disparity across guidance to arrive at that general outcome though. Still about 8 days out, so we simply cannot know yet.
  5. CAPE
    as in Cape Hatteras lol
  6. CAPE
    1.15" so far Too much rain again.
  7. CAPE
    6z GEFS has the same idea with a quick shot of snow along the boundary followed by a suppressed track for the main wave. Verbatim this would be a nice winter storm for the SE.
  8. CAPE
    The latest GFS runs are dumping even more NS energy southward ahead of the amplified central Canada ridge- ends up with a much sharper/further west trough and develops a bit of a low with some snow as it presses south. Ofc it completely crushes the southern wave as it progresses eastward.
  9. CAPE
    If that NS vortex is stronger/further south then yeah it could end up suppressing a stronger wave to our south(yay NC), or if the wave is on the weaker side it might just become damped/strung out as it moves east and won't amount to much of anything even for places further south. Still plenty of options on the table.
  10. CAPE
    It's not the h5 look that historically produces a KU. The 'super block' bs is hyperbole.
  11. CAPE
    Plenty of spread among the members but pretty much par for the course at this range. Nice signal for a moderate MA winter storm imo.
  12. CAPE
  13. CAPE
    HH GEFS is better
  14. CAPE
    Would need DT approval on that.
  15. CAPE
    Not gonna lie, I really want the 5-6th window to work out. Been tracking it for ages it seems, and it is still almost 10 days away lol. How great would it be to get a moderate event leading into what looks like the period with the most upside this winter.
  16. CAPE
    Our epic winter period is right around the corner. Just another couple weeks. Hang tight y'all.
  17. CAPE
    At this juncture there is no way guidance has the wave timing/interactions accurately depicted. We gotz time, as solution man just said.
  18. CAPE
    Pretty decent signal for snow across NC.
  19. CAPE
    There are 50 lows in 50 different places- from Missouri to Maine to Florida to halfway out into the Atlantic.
  20. CAPE
    We just cant know yet.
  21. CAPE
    It has been persistent on guidance for awhile now for sure. If it doesn't work out it will still help to reinforce lower pressure off of Atlantic Canada.
  22. CAPE
    It's not bad, but plenty of spread, and a step back from 6z. Plenty of time. Still in the game. We just cant know yet. What did I leave out lol?
  23. CAPE
    12z GEFS is more scattershot among the members compared to 6z. There are a few with snow in the deep south, and a few that rain on us. Most are in the middle somewhere, and some don't have much of anything.
  24. CAPE
    Long way to go. The most recent ensembles(the big 3) implied a SE/MA storm with some frozen. The 6z GEFS was pretty damn nice for this range.
  25. CAPE
    It is only briefly an omega configuration, and a bit of a sloppy one at that. The western trough pretty quickly undercuts and builds eastward underneath the central Canada ridge. An atmospheric block implies a sustained pattern.
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