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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Latest NBM
  2. CAPE
    The 'trend' on the GEFS is good though. 2 runs ago there was barely an indication of a surface low. Last run it was well off the coast. Did you see the MSLP anomaly panel I just posted for 6z?
  3. CAPE
    What trend are you speaking of?
  4. CAPE
    Better depiction of a low just off the NC coast than previous runs.
  5. CAPE
    Needless to say I'm not a fan of that run verbatim but that is still a possibility if a sharp NS shortwave digs and phases too early. The 50-50 region is precarious, so too amped is going to be problematic.
  6. CAPE
    WW might stop worrying about those bad SE trends after this run.
  7. CAPE
    Well this is just a little different
  8. CAPE
    NE MD PUMMELED seems a good bet. A puking fatties watch may be required.
  9. CAPE
    Pretty much a duplicate of 12z EPS.
  10. CAPE
    Looks like the 12z op run, so probably a similar outcome.
  11. CAPE
    The biggest difference to me for next week is the sharpness and dig of the NS vorticity on the Euro compared to the GFS. The degree of interaction with energy in the flow underneath it induces a stronger surface low sooner/further south. 18z GFS took a step in the right direction compared to the 12z run, with a more notable vort max that is less broad and strung out.
  12. CAPE
    A Pacific jet extension sets up a favorable Pacific for the potential storm around the 20th. An extended NPAC Jet is generally favored in a Nino, and the MJO forcing moving away from the MC will help to facilitate it, resulting in a +PNA with the NE Pac low moving into a better location near the Aleutians.
  13. CAPE
    Mean reflects the same general idea as the op. Doesn't quite gets its act together in time. Long way to go on this one.
  14. CAPE
  15. CAPE
    Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile.
  16. CAPE
    Different setup. Legit cold air pressing SE, and in place. An overamped wave could still mess it up some for the lowlands.
  17. CAPE
    Someone else can do the snow maps
  18. CAPE
  19. CAPE
    Miller A incoming on the EPS for the 16th
  20. CAPE
    That's busy. A lot of vorticity interplay going on.
  21. CAPE
    It was close. A bit discombobulated and came together a tad late.
  22. CAPE
    Given the issues up top, this is damn near a perfect run imo. Amplification happens at the right time and not too amped. Like the GFS, improvement in the 50-50 region leading in.
  23. CAPE
  24. CAPE
    Improvement over Atlantic Canada. Less amplified wave probably has a lot to do with that.
  25. CAPE
    Getting a graupel shower here on the west side of Easton.
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