CAPE
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The pattern starts to look favorable prior to this, but this period(and going forward) should be our wheelhouse for potentially bigger storms with cold air in place. A classic look across the HL region, with an ideally placed and strong west based block, and a TPV underneath. EPS has been consistent in depicting this pattern for several runs.
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The 12z GFS run yesterday was further south and colder. The low was 990 mb as it came off the NC coast. That run fringed PSU. Ofc that NS energy was in a good spot on that run w/more confluence, thus a colder and somewhat suppressive outcome.
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Absolutely. Just look at the last 4 runs of the GFS and the shifts that occurred wrt the NS energy I was referring too. No reason to think the final outcome is suddenly nailed now.
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Wave timing was always going to be especially critical in this setup, given we don't really have a block in place yet, and the antecedent air mass is only marginally cold. Several of us said it, I think you were one- the 50-50 needs to be a beast, but it also needs to be in a good spot to have the HP strong enough and not retreat too quickly.
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I mentioned this in the other thread this morning, and to me its a big problem on the GFS- the timing/depth of the vorticity over eastern Canada phasing into the 50-50 vortex has changed over the last few runs. The confluence it created was key to the strength and position of surface HP over SE Canada as the storm approaches, facilitating weakening the OV low sooner, and allowing the coastal low to strengthen more south of our latitude.
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lol at the whole jinx thing on a science based board. It is time for a thread. The threat is legit, and it keeps this thread from getting too cluttered.
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6z GEFS is acceptable. Colder and continues with a more SE track than the op.
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Watch the NS energy across eastern Canada moving into the the 50-50 region. That needs to dig more. The last few runs it has been flatter, thus less confluence and a somewhat weaker surface high that retreats a bit. The timing/interaction there is an important factor for places further south and the coastal plain imo. Increased confluence would encourage the low to track a bit further south.
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Storms would track NW with the trough in that position though. This is where it would really get good for the MA as advertised. More mature NA block with lower heights shifting into the 50-50 position, and the Aleutian low is in a better spot with a ridge building towards the western US. If this is real the latter part of Jan is gonna be interesting.
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Sipping my last 120. Looking really good for the NW crew, and it remains to be seen for the lowlands. A bit tenuous. Last 2 runs of the GFS are perfectly acceptable though.
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HNY! I think it may be a struggle to get anything to track underneath for the mid month period with a trough centered more in the west/central US, but just beyond that things look much improved, especially if the EPS is more correct, with a west based -NAO, TPV pinned underneath, and lower h5 heights shifting out into the 50-50 region. Significant improvement on the Pacific side too.
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Good 'trends' on the 0z and now 6z guidance. Still a close call for I-95 and east, but now looking favorable for a mostly snow event just west of there. That surface HP over SE Canada is in a pretty good spot and stays locked in.
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Big difference is with the main shortwave. Way less NS interaction so not as amped. Timing of the waves is much different this run.
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Only KUs
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LOL HNY Ji.
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NA confluence FTW.
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This isn't rocket science lol. You run a weather FB page and don't know this basic stuff?
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Da fuck? I am all about dat shit.
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GEFS is made up of individually perturbed members, not including the op which is run at a higher resolution.
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^ Makes me feel like even here there might be a chance for a little snow. I would feel pretty good NW of the Fall line based on this run.
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Stronger signal for LP off the NC coast.
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GEFS ens mean. Looks pretty good for places NW of the Fall line.
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This is the one that is sort of a sleeper in the all time greats, at least over here. An overperformer even though the forecast was for a major snowstorm. Ended up with 16"+ and lots of drifting. Pure powder storm.
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I was living just south of Westminster back then. That might have been the best storm ever in my current location.
