CAPE

6z GEFS suggestive of a storm for the 2nd with possible NS interaction/phasing. EPS has it too but somewhat weaker and develops further NE.

Jan 5 is the strongest signal for an east coast storm on the 0z EPS. A low develops along the Gulf coast and tracks NE to just off the NC coast on the mean.

What this?

Not binary. There are always gray areas. Nuance.

Guidance seems to be picking up on the impressive amplitude of the EPO ridge, which exhibits a wave break, capturing NS energy underneath in the flow between it and the west side of the TPV, sending it southward. It's pretty exciting from a physics perspective, but it becomes more complex wrt getting the ultimate outcome we want. We do simple pretty well.. complicated is more of a crapshoot lol.

The complication of NS shortwaves digging south. This is really close to something good, but wave interactions/ timing is so critical. A tad too much/too soon. All our hopes and dreams are dependent on the random nature of it lol.

We cannot at the present time. Eventually, we will.

It's relative. There are simpler, clear paths to victory.

Well.. It's complicated.

It can work at times, in both Nina and Nino, but can also be cold/dry and too progressive. We often see a -EPO/-NAO combo advertised by guidance at range, but it never seems to quite work out simultaneously. Maybe this time..

It is looking a bit more complicated now than a few days ago.

Canada torch long gone by the end of the first week in Jan thanks to a very favorable pattern across the HL region.

12z EPS- Clear signal for the storm on the 5th- verbatim on the mean the interior looks favored for frozen. Next wave incoming. Indication of some degree of NS interaction with both. Really good look up top with -EPO/-NAO and TPV over N Hudson.

Yes, WW might have less anxiety with this look. It's pretty clear where the pattern is headed for mid to late Jan. I have always thought any NA blocking for early Jan would be a bonus, and it appears we are headed in that direction. A relatively brief period of -PNA is not a death knell in a Nino, esp if the NA is favorable. Historically a neutral/-PNA has been a feature in some of our snowiest periods during a Nino. Maybe that doesn't work as well anymore, but that's another subject.

How about neutral? The exact position/strength of the NE PAC low, which is a fixture in a Nino, has a big influence on the PNA phase. There are always variations.

This has been discussed over and over. A +PNA is not necessarily a persistent feature in a Nino. Just as likely for there to be a -PNA.

I see a -AO, -NAO, and a ridge over AK. Pretty damn good HL look.

Why the fuck is channel 13/CBS Baltimore making us watch the shitty Commanders play the hapless Jets instead of carrying the Browns-Texans game? Unbelievable.

There is a definite trend in recent model cycles for more significant NS energy to dig southward and deepen as the EPO ridge amplifies. This has a couple potential impacts on our period of interest- it brings colder air southward, and it interacts with the waves tracking across the southern US. Depending on the timing, this could mean damping or 'squashing' waves, or possibly phasing with- which could be a good outcome if it happens at the right time. Tracking for early Jan has gotten a bit more interesting lol.

Don't know why but this post reminded me of this epically funny South Park Christmas episode.

Impressive -NAO towards the end of the 6z GEFS. The less favorable look on the Pacific side should be brief. Already looks like the Aleutian low is redeveloping with a bit of a ridge building out in front.

That low moves into the 50-50 region, and now seeing hints of NS interaction/possible phase for wave on the 4th- 5th.

There is stronger shortwave energy on the GEFS for Jan 2. Temps look pretty marginal for this period though.

The 6z GFS gets some snow into your hood. The airmass sucks unless right underneath that closed low, and even then some elevation is required. If it takes a track similar to the 6z GFS, the western highlands are going to maximize the potential.

The signal is still there on the ens means, but notably weaker on the 0z GEFS.