CAPE

0z Euro partially phases 3 pieces of energy under an anticyclonic wave break, popping a surface low that scoots eastward just to our SE around the 2nd. Verbatim a few inches of snow for southern VA. Same timeframe as the GFS clipper. 6z GFS is trying but just not cold enough for the lowlands. Develops a coastal low but too far offshore. Definitely something to keep an eye on- could be a sneaky threat for this window.

Likewise WW. I am a little high rn, but I won't talk politics. It has no place here.

Wait, so I can't mention weed while poring over a HH run?

Another acceptable ens run for the 6-7th window.

Law of averages. They were due.

Location dependent. You have a place in Canaan right?

lol EJ liking Ji's post.

Guess you will just have to wait to find out, with the next 5 days in the 50s.

As a Ravens fan I probably should be cheering for the Steelers here. I JUST CANT DO IT. Come on Bengals.

Torch!!

Paying less attention to the colors and more to the height contours is a good rule of thumb to glean the general idea from an overly smoothed seasonal model. I know you know this. Shame on you for trolling the panic stricken. Shame on me for coming in here and being rational and unemotional.

My Christmas wish is to never see a day 10+ snow map in a Med/LR thread ever again. Will it come true?

There are currently discrete(proper spelling) threats on the ens means though. Not all about the damn snow maps.

Early Jan is get on the board time with a moderate event or 2. Late Jan into mid Feb might be KU time, given strong Nino, QBO phase, weak SPV, and pretty much all extended guidance consistently depicting a period of sustained NA blocking.

Pretty classic looks on the means for the 6-7th. Although there won't be a sustained block in place, the timing looks good with predecessor waves lowering heights in the 50-50 region and building h5 heights near GL overtop. That should place surface HP in a favorable position that allows a northerly flow into a developing storm tracking northward along the east coast. The -EPO/TPV combo will have cooled central/eastern Canada to close to normal temps, so cold enough air for snow(given the track) should be available. Game on baby.

Nice signal on the EPS for the 7th. HP ridging south from eastern Canada with LP off the Maritimes, LP along the Gulf states with moisture streaming northeastward.

Sorry for all the good vibe spammage. I'm on my third cup. Very good set of ens runs at 0z and 6z imo, and I kind of liked the 6z GFS op too. Heading outside to spilt firewood and do some pre-Spring yard work. Love mulching in the cold with no bugs.

Much improved from some of the ensemble runs yesterday, where there was too much interaction too soon between the southern wave and NS vorticity. Such a nice h5 look right there.

Much stronger signal for a gulf low tracking towards the east coast. Nice surface setup.

Here comes the next wave. Gotta love a Nino.

6z GEFS has a stronger signal for the 4-5th window.

6z GFS is very close to something for the 4th-5th, then drops the hammer sending a TPV lobe south, pushing the thermal boundary to south Georgia lol.

0z Euro op at the end of the run was snowing on NC into central VA.

0z EPS indications for the 4th and the 7th.

0z GEFS has our storm for the 7th, and before that snows on NC on the 4th.