CAPE

15 currently and that is the low. edit- down to 14 now

It is odd but hints are there on the ensembles. It's the only window where there is anything of interest outside of another mild/rainy period- flood threat maybe?

Just to be clear about the advertised Pac jet configuration, this is a jet extension with the core of the jet further east/exit region near the west coast, with an associated +PNA. This outcome can vary somewhat as there are also shifts poleward/equatorward associated Nina/Nino tendencies, which along with extensions/retractions are influenced by the location of tropical forcing(MJO). A few days later when the H5 pattern 'gets crappy' this is the jet configuration- a retracting/weaker jet core and the NPAC h5 trough expands/shifts eastward(-PNA) If the NA was more favorable at this point, the overall h5 pattern would be more acceptable for our purposes despite the -PNA. Not binary- we usually need more than just this or that - rather a blend- to increase snow chances.

This stuff isn't binary. It's rarely just this OR that. Lots of in between possibilities.

Transient, well timed

Usually antithetical to our desired outcome in the MA, but every once in awhile it can work.

Sure but the biggest problem is the NA. You don't think we would have a much more favorable h5 look with that Pacific and a -NAO?

There is at least a chance here because the Pacific is pretty favorable, and the NAO is so positive it contributes to a 50-50 low.

Seems like it forces a +PNA to me.

I think he got 4 by the end of Dec so you DC area folk are fine! No correlation to my yard thankfully.

Pretty far above avg snowfall for the month here! If only Feb could be normal..

Facetious. Damn you are the second one who didn't get it. I guess I have to do better.

Agree completely. That was mostly my point. There is a chance though(not a shit the blinds pattern), because of the favorable(as advertised) Pacific, but without NA help it is a thread the needle deal and we likely go back to mild for a time.

Yeah that is a possible outcome.

That can work, esp for inland at elevation. My point is the bigger issue in the advertised pattern at day 10 is not the Pacific (it is pretty damn favorable-jet extension!!). If the NA was more favorable at that time (-NAO) the overall pattern would be more conducive to colder/snowier for the MA. This isn't a binary thing.

Yes. X though.

Being facetious dude. Read my recent posts. Nothing wrong with the Pac jet as advertised. This stuff is never 'perfect'. An extended jet is in fact a Nino thing, and favors a +PNA. Most seem to believe that is a necessity for cold and snow, so why all the negativity over extended jets? Possibly a lack of understanding.

Predicting the NAO phase 2-weeks out is notoriously difficult. Very low skill. That said, in general an el Nino plus an easterly QBO favor -NAO periods. Solar activity also factors in. No guarantees.

This is horrific. Probably no shot until mid Feb. How did this happen?

Broken.

Is this a shit the blinds pattern? Pacific jet extensions are so awful. Good thing we have a ++NAO!

Agreed. And I am tired of trying to explain how a PAC jet extension isn't a bad thing in and of itself. So much parroted bad info from twitter(er, X ) I suppose.

I identified a threat to track 10 days out in a 'shit the blinds' pattern in late Dec of 21 and it ended up a great snow event for much of our sub forum. See? not pointless, and sometimes advertised 'shit the blinds' patterns(subjective) at range don't always turn out that way.

I thought you might be in line for that one when I saw the trajectory as it came south through Carroll and Baltimore counties. Knew it was going west of me. How was it?

1/15 3.1" (ended as ZR) 1/19 5.0" Total: 8.1"