CAPE

Yes I know.

It was. Not that it was awful east of there, but it busted badly. The dry slot possibility was seemingly overlooked.

2016 doesn't even make my top 10. Half a storm here. Dry slotted after 15". The deform band yielded nothing.

This might be number 6 on my top 10 storms ever, after the 2009-10 trifecta, 1983, PD II in 2003. Feb 79 is in there too but I was too young to appreciate it. Jan 1996 was awesome but the middle third of the storm was pure sleet.

Something like this-

Patience. Things might not get good in the lower elevations of the MA until late Jan. Feb into March could be a memorable period. Just my wag at this point. No one likes to hear that, but it's just the way we roll in Ninos for the most part.

Sure, but this isn't Dec 2009. Not even remotely close. Kind of like the Ravens vs the Dolphins.

It's great. Made me smile and laugh. And yes, but they have no excuses this year, unlike the Os. They really need to get to the SB.

Well yeah, 2019

Nice for Huntley. He will play the whole game next week.

Stupid for Miami to leave their star players in when the game is over. Hate to see it.

Yeahhhhh baby!!!

35-13 heading into the 4th quarter.... it ain't over.

Good start to the second half. Not even close to over.

Have you read any of his posts over the years?

It has really come together the last few weeks and is gaining confidence. Good time to do it. D is dinged today and now Humphrey is out, so the second half will be interesting. Ravens need to keep scoring TDs.

Zayyyyyy baby!

Another Gus the bus 1 yd TD run! @Ji

The stronger shortwave is the biggest difference yes. If it's that amped its going to be hard to get it to track underneath given the general h5 setup.

No Kyle Hamilton today Drinking early.

He is one of these Philly drive-by debs we used to see a lot of in the past.

In order for this window to work out for the lowlands, wave timing/spacing is especially critical, given there isn't a sustained block in place and cold air availability is marginal. Comparing this GFS run to the ones with the better outcomes, there is a bit too much spacing relative to the 50-50 vortex, and ofc the shortwave itself is stronger/ more amped. That might work if there was a block, but it becomes really touchy in this case wrt the 50-50 position/strength. Anyway, still plenty of time and a pretty good bet guidance doesn't have the details nailed down at this juncture.

Ha I was just about to do something like this illustrating the shifts we ideally want to occur. I can see it. Might be a bit of a fantasy now but hopefully it becomes real.

The advertised look up top towards mid month is getting close to 'that look'. The overall pattern still needs some work. The mid month period would favor NW tracks with that trough position. Get the MJO into the better phases with an extended NPJ and we should see a more Nino-like look on the Pacific side, with the Aleutian low in a better spot and a shift in the ridge position from offshore to the western US. That change, with a HL block in place, would set us up nicely for the latter part of Jan into Feb.