CAPE

Seeing hints of a storm along the east coast for the 20th, most notably on the EPS.

EPS and GEPS have a signal for low pressure off the NC coast for the 16th. Difficult to see any indication on the GEFS.

Getting the heaviest rain of the storm now with this line moving through. Sounds like a summer downpour. 1.78"

Pretty close match to 12z. Timing a bit different.

Mean looks nearly identical to the 12z run to me. Don't really care about a control run ever. It's either off on a tangent or similar to the op. So go with the op.

58 and pouring with this line moving through. Wind gusts to probably 40. 1.3" so far.

Inaccurate interpretation.

Who suggested that?

Long range looks just a bit conflicted on the GEFS. Don't care to pore over the members. The upshot on the LR mean is maybe a mediocre late month period at worst. NA looks ok. The Pacific looks serviceable or better. Verbatim average temps in the east. My wag is it ends up avg or colder than avg.

Not looking big dog at this juncture on the GEFS, but the 20th still looks favorable overall. The mean seems to imply a moderate event is doable.

Probably having some impact. A this point I don't think either are far off from a favorable outcome, albeit somewhat different paths. All part of the fun of tracking.

EPS, the better model, looks pretty good rn.

Not sure this is the change we want. More NS interaction overtop a weakening, strung out wave, and higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes.. Kind of a lose-lose. Only another op run though!

Didn't he just cancel winter? #Summer2024

Getting some good gusts now. Tree debris falling on the roof.

Plenty of water lying in the fields here too. Ditches full. Water table broke the surface in my seasonal wetland. Last year that happened late April/early May. And only 0.45" so far for this one. Too much rain over the last 6 weeks.

Most likely path to victory is a phase but the timing has to be just right- around the Mississippi probably. If we get lucky and some lower heights squeeze out into the 50-50 region then there is more wiggle room.

Yeah it looks a bit better than 0z.

I haven't looked either. Given what the op did, I am sure there at least a couple camps.

Its cold

All I'll say about the 12z EURO is too much NS interaction too far west for my liking. Unless we get lucky with a well timed 50-50, we don't want too much amplification. I gave my opinions this morning on a couple ways we can pull something out given the NS convolution.

What keeps a 50-50 low 'in place' is a true (rex) block. A dipole. We have that here, but the vortex part of the block isn't where we want it.

12z GEFS has a indication of low pressure closer to the SE coast for the 20th. Previous runs have been way offshore.

Here is how you save your sanity- don't do this sort of analysis on an op run 10+ days out lol. I know I don't have the energy.

Snippet from NWS Chicago this morning- As has been indicated repeatedly with this system, the marginal thermal profiles with surface temperatures at or above freezing mean that not only are high snowfall rates required, these must remain persistent for several hours for appreciable accumulations and resultant travel and infrastructure impacts. Even with the slight SE wobble, increasing easterly and northeasterly winds off the roughly 40 degree lake suggest temperatures will still crawl their way upwards across NE Illinois today. As a result, continue to suspect that raw model snowfall output (10:1, Kuchera, you name it) is spreading high snowfall areas across a much broader area than will be realized. In fact, it`s likely the snowfall gradient ultimately will be even tighter than we can show in our gridded forecast with any predictability. HRRR/RAP snow depth or variable-density snow depth output is likely a better proxy for impacts, and depicts an incredibly, razor sharp delineation in snow amounts, where snowfall rates are maximized for the longest period.