CAPE

I gotta admit, his post made me LOL. You do have a habit of swooping in here and dropping a deuce on a good vibe.

Not to be a Deb, but given the Raven's (tough) schedule, and the FLACCO! factor, I could see a scenario where the Ravens and Browns end up with the same record. They split head to head, so it would come down to other tiebreakers for the division.

The GEFS look is decent, but not drool worthy. It has backed off a bit over the last couple runs on the amped western ridge, with the most notable +heights over Hudson Bay and a slightly +NAO at the end of the run. My guess is it is probably a few days behind(or the EPS is a bit ahead) with the general progression of the pattern.

Many of our snowiest periods historically don't feature a ridge out west, in particular during a Nino. Good to see it show up on the means, especially in the absence of a -NAO. Ofc the last few runs of the EPS are suggesting a -NAO period may develop as well.

It hasn't been 'missing' that whole time. We have had timely periods of +PNA/-EPO that contributed to cold/snowy periods.

Given that the last several runs of GEFS have mildish temps for the east at day 15, no surprise the extended tool takes longer to cool things down. EPS and GEPS both have below avg temps by early Jan. The depicted h5 pattern in general is not as quite as good on the GEFS, and the other 2 models have the NAO trending negative heading into January. Regardless it isn't that important to see blues over us on a temp anomaly panel 15+ days out. The advertised h5 pattern progression is what we want to see.

You can feel the juice in this airmass. Ground, roads, cars all wet despite no precip falling. 50/48 currently.

Still a strong signal for a storm in this window. Still on the mild side but decent shot at some frozen inland with this one. The next one should have some colder air to work with. One can envision this tracking just underneath, with a bit more of a cold feed. EPS has a colder look for around new Years.

Ravens are pretty healthy while the Jags are banged up and slumping. Their defense is ranked 31. This won't be easy. Ravens fans know.

Temps on the rise here. Up to 49.

Guidance does have a tendency to 'rush' pattern changes. That being said, I never saw what I would consider can kicking. I suppose that's subjective, and the notion of it mostly seems to be rooted in fear or impatience.

Morning AFD from Mount Holly- As the potent upper-level trough arrives and drives strong low pressure across our area, an intense east to southeast 925 mb jet of 50-80 knots is forecast to lift northward. The strongest part of this low-level jet is across the coastal plain on eastward later this evening into the pre-dawn hours of Monday. It is during this time when the heaviest rain will fall, as precipitable water values rapidly increase to near 1.5 inches across the region. The high precipitable water and ample lift will result in a period of heavy rain, which looks to occur from about late this evening to the early morning hours of Monday. For more details on the flooding potential, see the hydrology section below. As the above intense low-level jet tracks northward later tonight and early Monday morning, the model forecast soundings particularly across Delmarva and then southern to central New Jersey show increasing elevated instability. The NAM is highest with about 500 J/kg. The profiles are moist therefore the overall instability should be on the weak side, however there will be a period of time where the low-level shear is rather impressive. Since buoyancy should be somewhat limited and rooted above the surface, severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Something to keep an eye on though based on the track of the surface low, and for now did add in a thunder chance late tonight and early Monday morning across the above mentioned areas. The winds will increase dramatically tonight especially closer to the coast. There will be a robust low-level wind field and although the strong warm air advection over and off the cooler ocean waters tends to create a more stable boundary layer, the guidance continues to show 3 hour pressure falls of around 10 mb as the strong surface low arrives overnight. This can compensate for any stable marine influence and result in at least some of the stronger winds from aloft to reach the surface. The model forecast soundings show strong winds right near the surface during its peak later tonight into early Monday morning and this occurs as the boundary layer warms some. Given the latest forecast, no changes were made to the Wind Advisory for our New Jersey coastal zones and also Sussex County, Delaware. Peak wind gusts, as of now, remain forecast to be up to 50 mph. The thinking remains that not enough mixing occurs to bring the stronger winds (60-70 mph gusts) down to the surface, however there could be a small window of opportunity along the coast just ahead of the surface low where a few gusts are closer to 60 mph.

Nice win for the Bengals. Browning might be starting somewhere next season. Maybe the Vikings regret cutting him.

Steelers have now lost three straight. You love to see it. Sorry Vikings fans. Tough loss.

Yesterday's edition of the weeklies have this look a few days later. Maybe we do see an early Jan -NAO period. The latest CMC Ext depicted an early Jan -NAO. GEFS Ext looks neutral. Overall the advertised pattern progression looks very favorable heading into the beginning of snow climo season.

0z EPS has the NAO going negative/50-50 low with a building EPO ridge and +PNA for the beginning of Jan.

Yeah it works pretty well in some cases in a Nina, but more so for the immediate coast in a progressive flow regime. In a Nino we get the cold plus the persistent southern waves- just need a bit more timing without a favorable NA.

These twitter dweebs and the raging Pac jet. Annoying AF. I'm sure they understand the core characteristics of a Nino, but they have their agendas.

It weakens(apparently) but we don't want it to become some deep monster vortex pumping Pacific air into NA either. The NE Pac low is a prominent feature of a Nino, so it wont just 'disappear'.

I'm all in. I do think we will see more -NAO episodes middle to latter part of winter, but I will roll with the more favorable Pacific and a neutral NAO. That combo has worked well in past Ninos and in some scenarios gives a little more breathing room for the lowlands with more cold air available.

Latest Euro weeklies. A bit better in the NAO domain for early Jan. Overall, hard to complain about that look.

It seems pretty likely that the most notable initial improvement in the longwave pattern will be the NE Pac low retrograding towards the Aleutians, with the flat central Canada ridge 'morphing' into an EPO ridge. All the ens means depict this evolution. That's a favorable shift and a colder look for the eastern US. There are also hints of improvement in the NA, esp on some of the Op runs, but it may be closer to mid January before we see something more than a transient -NAO. This aligns with most of the winter forecasts, and also what the extended tools have been depicting. The forum mood graph should indicate we are on the increasing slope of the sine wave and approaching peak.

There is an indication of a following wave on the mean (similar to the 6z GFS op), and given the improving look up top there might be some colder air to work with for early January.

Still seeing consistent indications on the ens means for a coastal storm in the 27-29th window. Last 2 runs of the GEFS have a pretty decent signal for frozen in the MA, esp inland with temps expected to be marginal.

If the weeklies/extended products have the right idea, we should see some classic setups like that moving forward.