CAPE

Not really concerned no. TPV in a good spot and my guess is -NAO episodes will be more prevalent in Feb. Euro weeklies have been persistently advertising it and that tool has performed quite well this winter so far.

Hell of a ridge bridge between the retrograding -NAO and the PNA ridge progressing eastward. A factor that could contribute to the 20th storm potential coming together too late/offshore. If it amps enough and develops a wave break in time the GFS scenario might be a real possibility. Also would give us our coldest temps in a long time followed quickly by a late Jan warm up. Any January 'thaw' looks short lived though as the advertised pattern reshuffles to a -EPO/+PNA look for the end of the month. Colder air should be in place again by the beginning of Feb.

snowman19?

Won't be watching that unless I can find it on some spammy online gambling site. Fuck peacock and the NFL.

The course is based on AB SLC 500s. I have experience with GE, Siemens, Automation Direct as well. Years ago I worked in manufacturing, then I got a Comp Sci degree and ultimately got into teaching.

Automation. Specifically PLCs.

lol not really debbing. We are kinda due for a dry spell though, so wouldn't it be just our luck if it happened when we finally get legit cold in place.

I still love snow, but it can also be an annoyance. Has zero impact on my happiness. I like to track because I appreciate the physics and complexity of the atmosphere. Large scale fluid mechanics is cool.

0.93" Bring the cold and dry

I'm teaching a class all week so the best I can do to 'enjoy' it is driving in it or looking out a window on a break lol. If we get a couple inches and its cold enough to stick around I might be able to get an evening hike in.

Seems every path leads me to nowhere... From one of the best songs of the Grunge era. But yeah, given our latitude and lack of elevation, there are always paths to failure. We always need some degree of luck to get snow.

I haven't had jack shit here yet, so 1-2 works for me. I'll take a coating and like it.

6z GEFS

Latest NBM

6z GEFS for the 20th

STJ undercutting the western ridge. EPS depicts a pretty active southern stream with indication of h5 shortwaves in the flow.

0z EPS has a -EPO/+PNA in the LR with a well placed Aleutian low. That's the type of pattern that can inject Arctic air into the flow and send it southward.

That low track is pretty far offshore- looks like an inverted trough type deal.

And this is how it can work- we get that interaction and enough dig at just the right time to induce low pressure at the coast. Its a glancing blow though and a great outcome for north of Philly to SNE.

This window has held potential for awhile now because of the advertised favorable h5 setup. I have been monitoring it ever since it showed up on the ens guidance, and one key missing component has been any southern stream energy of significance. The primary energy for the possible storm is embedded in the flow overtop the western ridge. That can work if it digs far enough south, but we need some NS energy associated with the TPV to get involved. By this time it is shifting into eastern Canada, with the tendency for interaction/a phase to occur a little late for the MA. Also doesn't help that the PNA ridge axis is modeled to shift eastward during this time. The ens means have been very consistent with a signal for low pressure forming around our latitude and strengthening as it moves northeastward offshore.

Latest NBM. Slow bleed is picking up now. Need the 0z runs to start turning this around!

I'll crawl first. White rain here with a slushy trace so far. An inch would be glorious.

With timing differences and possibly 2 waves, this is a better depiction. Still not great, but the mean implies 1-2".