CAPE

It would potentially be a great pattern for confluence leading to surface HP over S Canada yes. Northerly flow, and waves tracking to our south. Nino 'Come to Papa' pattern.

I don't pay much attention to that stuff. I focus on a week to 10 days beyond EPS D15 at h5. Beyond that, too much uncertainty.

Latest weeklies with a more impressive -NAO heading into mid Jan, and not much else to say about that Pac look. Just damn. Cold air won't be a problem between the EPO ridge and TPV position.

The storm around the 28th looks like rain for the majority of the region, although there is a hint of a second piece of energy dropping in behind on some of the op and ens guidance, with colder air arriving. GFS op has been suggesting this. It looks very close on the heels of the preceding low, so probably not a high probability for surface development close enough to the coast. Something to keep an eye on. Behind that system somewhat colder air should be in place, and there are hints on the ens guidance of one or more weaker waves tracking to our south Jan 1-3 timeframe. Might be a chance or 2 there for an uncomplicated modest event with some frozen.

Impatience stage. Still a week to 10 days before frozen possibilities east of the mountains. Maps and more maps, over-interpretations and hallucinations.

A -NAO episode in early Jan would be a bonus imo. If we are going to see a sustained period of blocking in the NA, it will probably occur late Jan through Feb.

Chuck might be worried about the 'shrinking' Aleutian trough, but for most of the rest of us that is one hell of a nice look for early Jan on the Euro weeklies.

12z EPS D15, and the latest edition of the weeklies for the first week of Jan. Improvement in the NAO domain for early Jan.

Rain to snow for the 28th with a trailing piece of energy and cold HP pressing south, then with cold in place the next wave tracks underneath and snows on us. That idea has been showing up on the ens mean, and makes sense with the advertised pattern evolution.

2.35"

It is the Gus the Bus, Justice Hill show going forward. And ofc Jackson. Don't want to see him run as much as he has though.

If you haven't seen the replay of the Mitchell injury, don't. It is ugly.

Anyway, Ravens are in the playoffs. Now it's all about seeding.

I'm pretty old. They are a good team. But as a fan, I am going to be critical. Nature of the beast.

Nice win for the Ravens. Lamar's ability to escape the rush, extend the play, and make something happen downfield has become almost Elway-like. Just feel sick for Keaton Mitchell. Such a weapon in the absence of Dobbins, and probably done for the season. Sucks.

57 and 0.90" so far. Ready for the thunder/heavy rain/wind portion of the program now.

Ravens D has been a bit lucky. Could easily be 10-9 or worse. Seeing the same softness that's been there recently. Get your shit together. Offense needs to get the run game going a bit. Stanley. I know he isnt 100 % but maybe he is washed? Barely mediocre at this point.

I believe that was a Jebman classic.

Would like to see a better look in the NA though. Hopefully the EPS has the right idea for early Jan.

I like the h5 look at the end of the 18z GEFS run out west. Significant improvement. It has looked pretty meh compared to the EPS the last few runs, and the extended tool depicts how this will likely evolve a few days later.

My prediction is that you will probably want to be in Deep creek for this one.

Cowboys SUCK when they play a worthy opponent on the road. Not even close to SF. Eagles, Rams, and Lions are better.

A parade of lows across the southern US, exiting the SE/MA coast. Nino baby. There will be no lack of chances. Eventually some cold air will get involved.

The strength and position of the NPAC low can vary, but it won't likely 'disappear'. It is a semi-permanent feature in a Nino, just as the NPAC ridge is during a Nina. The NPAC Jet character (extended/retracted, shifted northward/southward) is a factor in determining the exact location and strength of that low in the mid levels.