CAPE

Are we now in the model hallucination stage of the program, preceding the radar hallucination stage?

It's literally the same, outside of minor run to run noise.

I would love this to reflect ground truth, but it won't be (as most of us know). At this point I think there is a decent shot of non accumulating snow in the air east of the Fall line, and an inch or 2 up your way, with several inches in the western highlands. That would be an area wide win imo given how this looked not too long ago.

This would work. A bit east based but this is a 7 day h5 anomaly- it does evolve to a Baffin block for a time. Again, my wag is we see relatively short lived negative NAO episodes, but good enough with the persistent STJ tossing waves our way. Surely we can time something.

Agree with this. I think we will see episodes of a favorable NA, of the variety more like 2016 than 2009-10, which developed early via a Scandi/EPO ridge bridge, and was impressively sustained.

Also the EPS is suggestive of h5 heights increasing into the NAO domain. This is really what I am keeping an eye on. We pretty much know what the Pacific is going to be based on location of Nino forcing, but we really could benefit from a more favorable NA.

The dominant feature is the NE Pac low as expected, but it has indeed retrograded as predicted.

I was referring to his 97-98 reference, implying the entire winter will be a disaster.

Advertised surface temps with moderate to heavy precip falling (snow verbatim). It would certainly require dynamic cooling to get it done. At the very least I am feeling pretty good about a couple inches of slop in PSU's yard to save winter.

I will say this just looking at recent runs of the GFS- that shortwave is sharper and the trough tilts negative sooner, resulting in the surface low popping further south and a bit more developed as it hits the coast. That might be enough to allow the cold to come in with significant precip still ongoing.

We are going to need some help in the NA. All signs still point in that direction in the coming weeks.

I hope the flakes fly for the NW crew, but it's just good to see a juiced up storm. Looking like a widespread 2 inch+ rain event. Good sign as we head into our better climo period. Looks like a sloppy Ravens game.. hopefully they can run for 300.

Update on the mid month potential- pretty strong signal for a coastal storm at this range, but as previously discussed, cold air availability appears limited. Look at the surface pressure to our north- it is the inverse of what we want for a northerly flow of continental air into a developing storm, and there is a lack of antecedent cold to begin with. The way the setup looks now, this could be a significant snow event for the highlands of NC northward, depending on the exact evolution/storm track.

I made a reply post to him yesterday- the last time he misinterpreted a twitter post on the subject, illustrating how jet extensions lead to a +PNA. @brooklynwx99 also made a similar post. To no avail. Perpetual deb.

Why do you post this stuff when you clearly don't even know how to interpret it? Stay in the damn Panic thread FFS.

My choice would have been the high gravity stuff- probably 30 or 31 lol. Sipping on a Utopias Barrel aged 120 min IPA for Friday HH right now.

Verbatim it looks a few degrees above average. So no snow on Xmas = torch. What a jerk.

Speaking of.. this will get some cold into our source region quick.

Decent early season nearby chase opportunity for those jonesing for snow. Cold front pushes east of the spine of the Appalachians Sunday with strong frontogenetic forcing shown, producing widespread rainfall. Trend has been for somewhat less QPF in the northwest but still 1-2 inches over the southeast forecast area. NBM 90th PQPF over Preston and Tucker Counties still around 3" so potential for decent rises in the Cheat and Mon Basins. Confidence is low on how much snow will fall as the precipitation is ending over the lower elevations. Still looks good for several inches of snow in northwest flow and upslope over the Laurel Highlands and the Preston/Tucker County areas of West Virginia Sunday night and Monday and this will likely require a Winter Weather Advisory at some point.

Nice disco from Mount Holly- Strong trough and cold front will begin to influence the weather more noticeably Saturday night, with increasing high and mid clouds. The warm front will still be struggling to lift north, so cooler temps prevail, but we will stay above freezing at least, with 30s north and 40s elsewhere. Some patchy fog/drizzle/mist may again develop late Saturday night. Sunday, the warm front is finally sent well north of the region as the southerly low-level jet ahead of the approaching cold front strengthens rapidly. This will bring southerly winds which may gust 30-40 mph along with increasing coverage of showers and possibly even some embedded thunderstorms. The forcing with the upper trough is quite potent and moist flow significant, so locally heavy rain may start overspreading the area. The southerly flow should bring plenty of warmer air northward as well, so temps surge into the 60s for most. However, the most active weather likely waits until after nightfall Sunday night. Southerly winds may gust up to 50 mph along the coast, maybe even a little higher, thanks to the extremely powerful low-level jet. Any stronger cells could even mix down winds up to severe limits. The heaviest rainfall also will occur as the forcing maxes out just ahead of the approaching cold front, with totals likely exceeding 2 inches across much of the area, with localized flooding being a concern along with perhaps some stream/small river flooding in the coming days. A strong push of wind may then occur as the cold front blasts across the region overnight, with widespread wind advisory gusts possible and perhaps some localized gusts near severe limits with the front. Temps likely stay in the 50s to low 60s until the front passes, then rapidly drop into the 40s. A quick changeover to snow with modest accumulation is possible late in the Poconos.

Time for a thread? This event is in the short range now and multi-faceted with heavy rain/wind, snow inland.

The majority of GEFS members have at least one southern stream system tracking up and off the SE/MA coast in the 17-23rd period. A few have more of an inland track. That general idea is characteristic of a Nino. It's not a high probability setup for snow primarily because cold air availability is lacking in the pattern as advertised. That said more members than not have normal or below normal temps for the MA/SE during that window. Should there be a storm, higher terrain areas further inland would clearly be favored for frozen.

There is a hint for something on the GEFS. Verbatim on the mean there is a little snow over S/Central VA. That ridge over Atlantic Canada is problematic, but this is a snapshot on a LR mean and in reality there will be waves moving through the flow/interacting. Starting to see the trough over Alaska shift into a more favorable spot the last few runs, with height lines building northward downstream.

It's a way to shit up this thread. There is another one specifically for that crap.

An extended Pacific jet is associated with a +PNA. The specific N-S location also has an influence.