CAPE
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End of the 18z GEFS run.. GEFS extended pattern progression to Xmas.. East coast Torch!!!!!???
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Funny I was just about to make a post related to this. If only there were something cooking in the southern stream this would be a period to watch for a trailing wave following the cutter, with the boundary pulled southward. Decent gradient pattern look.
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Come on Will you know better. There is always going to be wild run to run swings on operational runs in the LR, esp during the winter.
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Yes the extended products have been consistent in the depiction of that pattern progression.
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Those 2 dudes love to hyperbolize the chance for anomalous winter warmth. Not the coldest look, but this doesn't look torchy heading into the holidays.
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lol
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The forecast jet extension in the LR would be consistent with an increase in AAM, and what is expected in a Nino. Also increases the likelihood for a +PNA with the exit region of the jet closer to the west coast.
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The Ravens will be watching that tape. One thing they do well is find multiple ways to pressure the QB, and it comes from everywhere. Shanahan coached teams are great at making in game adjustments. It was impressive how quickly that game turned after the first quarter. I was literally thinking at the time this might be the first game Philly wins comfortably lol.
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I think it was 3 injuries but I generally agree. Hell the Ravens are always down multiple starters- at one point they had 7 out. They are one of the best at building a deep roster though, so that's also a factor in overcoming injuries. Another consideration is the type of QB they have really requires their key playmakers to be effective. He is smart and has the intangibles but is mediocre athletically.
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They better take care of business at home coming off the bye. The Rams are pretty good and playing for something.
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They had key injuries that greatly contributed to that 3 game slide. They have looked pretty dominant since then as they have gotten healthy.
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Yeah that would be the one game to lose and they probably will, but you know there is another loss in there somewhere.
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The system is flawed and indeed subjective. FSU is not the same team since they lost their QB- they looked terrible offensively against Louisville and had like 50 yards passing. They would likely get destroyed in the playoff, and that matters. Georgia-TCU last year was unwatchable.
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Yesterday was a good day for the Ravens. If they win out they are the number one seed. Not likely to happen given their schedule, but a nice position to be in right now.
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0.55" total overnight into this morning Another dreary day.
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I was trying to find this earlier- something I ran across a few years ago and thought it was a good read on the PDO. Anyway I finally found it. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/going-out-ice-cream-first-date-pacific-decadal-oscillation
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At the end of the 6z GEFS run, we can see the beginning of the pattern progression that both the EURO weeklies and GEFS extended have been consistently depicting.
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Take a break dude. Afraid you might not make it.
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I agree with most of this. Your post comparing a snapshot from the current ens means to a composite for last winter with no commentary was a bit disingenuous though. You know how some are going to respond to stuff like that. Do better.
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Beginning to think many won't make it.
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The PDO really isnt a pattern driver. The phase is influenced by multiple factors, ENSO state being one. The MJO is a short term modulator and the current wave will be focused over the MC in the coming days and is largely responsible for the unfavorable looks on the PAC side imo. Beyond that the convection looks to shift into the Western PAC and weaken based on current forecasts. Ultimately the atmospheric response to a Nino should feature a NE PAC low, and the location of that going forward will become a major influence on the downstream pattern. We also have to factor in the current Strat activity and possible impacts on the h5 pattern. Upshot is the pattern is in flux and looks generally mild for the middle third of the month. End of Dec into Jan might be pretty interesting.
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So you expect this h5 look to lock in like last winter then?
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0.48" so far and steady rain continues. I didn't pay much attention to the recent qpf forecast but this seems like a bit of an overperformer.
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The ensemble system exists for a reason. But let's just toss the whole concept of ensembles and quantifying uncertainty, because we 'feel' the op run alone mostly ends up getting it right in the LR. After how many completely disparate permutations? Okay.
