CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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An extended Pacific jet is associated with a +PNA. The specific N-S location also has an influence.
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Getting there on the 18z GEFS. +Heights shifting northwestward into the the NAO domain and the AK trough retrograding.
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Maybe they can substitute for Mt PSU and save winter?
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Busy week for me next week but a few recommendations for you and your friend- Black Tag Imperial Stout Pennsylvania Tuxedo Pale Ale Horkin' Heapload IPA I drank all 3 on tap and loved them all- all available at the shop bottled/canned.
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Flakes flying in Rehoboth.
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The HL evolution in 2009 really was a thing of beauty. Favorable Aleutian low with an EPO ridge that bridged with the retrograding Scandinavian ridge, pinching off the TPV, which dropped energy into the developing trough underneath/ feeding into the 50-50 position, reinforcing the anomalous higher h5 heights building into the NAO domain.
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Yep. They go hand in hand. A true atmospheric block involves a sustained ridge/trough configuration. Rex, omega, etc.
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The origins of that -NAO came from a Scandi ridge retrograding in early Dec. That's the mechanism that really initiated the impressive, sustained NA block that winter. What DT would call a 'real' -NAO.
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Nice to see the good vibes. I'm off to enjoy more DFH beer. So many good ones. Cant try em all. Well maybe.
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Exactly. Its relative. Also if it's super cold up there that can mean +AO and we are pretty much screwed regardless.
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Nino vs Nina. That's the basic difference in the feel at this point. No guarantees ofc.
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I think temps had cooled close to freezing here before the precip began. Antithesis of UHI FTW.
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Yeah I drove out to the Hagerstown area a couple days later and it was wild to see the cutoff driving west on I70.
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That's odd because I tracked that threat from so far out I wasn't going to miss any of it. First time I looked out and saw precip falling it was snow and 32, and an hour before it wasn't doing anything. May have been a mix at the beginning. Precip was heavier to the south and east so maybe it took a bit longer to cool the lower levels up your way. Most of that storm temps were in the 20s here.
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3 snow events here totaled around 20". Great month. Rest of the winter was pretty shit.
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Pretty sure that storm was all snow. It was a beautiful day (around 60) the day before but cold/dry air arrived just ahead of the wave later that night. That was the 'CAPE' storm lol, the one I tracked from 2 weeks out when we were in a hopeless 'shit the blinds pattern'. Ended up with over 9" here.
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Just had a sleet/rain shower here in Rehoboth.
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I was wondering if anyone would notice. And not a bad idea. Utopias barrel aged version ofc.
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Latest Euro weeklies have some drool worthy h5 looks for January.
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Yeah its not a favorable NA look on a smoothed mean 10+ days out, but the last 2 runs of the GFS op showed a couple ways it could work with good wave timing setting up transient HP and/or 50-50 from a predecessor low.
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Both the 0z and 6z GFS have a coastal low for the mid month window with snow for parts of the area. Indications are there on the 0z Ens runs. Again the advertised pattern isn't ideal esp in the NA so really good timing would be needed to get a High positioned to the N/NW for a feed of cold into a storm. Way out there but something to monitor.
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There is a bit of a signal on the EPS (and also the GEFS) for the mid month period for a coastal storm. The h5 look overall isn't great but there are 10 or so members on the EPS with snow for the MA in the 15-18th window, some focused more along the coast. There have been hints, so something to keep an eye on. Sometimes we look past sneaky threats when the pattern is flawed, waiting for the "good" one to arrive.
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Ralph has a WAR phobia.
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The bias corrected Euro and GEFS take it into the COD before/just as it gets to phase 7.
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Even the extended tool can resolve the DC UHI lol
