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  2. February 24/25 Mixed Bag / Moderate Event. CNE NNE centric

    Not buying the TT GFS snowmap. A lot of sleet maybe?
  3. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    March 2010?
  4. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Mid levels looks fine at my latitude......all I care about.
  5. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    Look at what has happened to my snowpile!?!?! Its barely hanging on after the 70's and 80's. This is after shoveling my backyard. My neighbors behind me think I am crazy BTW
  6. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Nor will it be snowing for many.
  7. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    You aren't suppressing with that SE ridge in place at first.
  8. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Snow to ice in far northern parts of CNE and southern parts of NNE, is my guess. Most of NH and ME will stay all snow, and then maybe brief drizzle in low to mid 30's as we dry. out...
  9. Severe potential 2/24

    I'm on Quincy's side here. I don't see any reason to believe that there will be much in terms of supercellular activity. Typically what makes or breaks these cold season events is whether you get open warm sector development. Sure, the parameters may bring with them some impressive analogues, but they also bring some mediocre ones, and that's the problem with these events. The difference between a memorable tornado event and one that sucks is small. I'm not surprised in the 30%/hatched but I'm surprised definitely in the wording. That said, the forecaster has me less surprised.
  10. What a surprise, the GFS trends warmer and wetter for that early March storm as the SE Ridge keeps pumping warmth in the east. That's what? The 5th fooking rainstorm in a row? Unbelievable! I'm throwing my towel in for this winter. What a terrible end to a lackluster winter. Bring on Spring!
  11. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    I worry more about a marginal airmass down here then a complete whiff.
  12. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Looks like the flu season is peaking now, and declining in most spots. Good news is that the A strains are really declining, in favor of B strains. The flu shot is more effective against the B strain than the A strain
  13. While it won’t effect a ton of folks on the board, it could be a messy to decent event for some on here.
  14. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    Yeah and about this time last month things were looking pretty good for a cold and snowy mid February till the end of the month. I will put as much faith in this signal as I did in that one. Curious why you seem to put great faith in only warm signals but never any cold ones. You have a Warmacist bias it seems.
  15. Pittsburgh PA ❄️ Winter 2017-2018

    If that happens, look for Point State Park to be under water again and look for the bathtub to fill up again. Our April February. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
  16. And that is my concern. Not to beat a dead horse, but too much blocking is no bueno. What we have going for us is that the blocking is coming in March. The southern latitudes are heating up which should beat back the confluence a bit. What you dont see on those anomaly maps is any semblance of a SE ridge which could help us out here. I am pretty confident that somewhere along the EC will see some snow from this pattern, but based on the strength of the block, i believe we need to wait until it moves out, so i like the March 7th time frame better.
  17. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    12z GFS is similar over those same areas.
  18. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    NAM looks pretty icy/mixed bag for elevations near the MA/NH border
  19. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    I'm not sure why anyone would discuss the long range modeled pattern in the model thread. Anarchy....chaos.
  20. NNE Winter Thread

    I got an alert on my phone this morning regarding a Winter Weather Advisory for our area. It doesn’t look like it’s really related to any snow, the focus appears to be icing, but here’s a heads up nonetheless of areas to watch out this afternoon:
  21. February 2018 Discussion

    0.19" of rain here overnight, boosting my February total to 3.15". I'd like to see the ground thaw out. Even last night's little rainfall caused more pooling on the patio/yard.
  22. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    How many times over the years have the models dig a trof in the SW and cut it off in the 7-10 day range only for it to not come to fruition. Happens much much more on the models than it ever verifies...at least in the 15 years or so I've been doing this. And when it does verify, the signs are usually there towards it occurring. This one doesn't really have that..it'd be an anomaly. That is why I really am not too concerned right now until the models show this inside of 5 days. I've seen it so many times where the OP models will cut off a trof in the SW and in turn it wrecks the pattern on the model run but it never actually verifies. Who knows, it could verify this time, but this is something that I've seen before in the past and most times it ends up being overblown. BTW winter patterns in general for this area often feature a lot more that can go wrong than go right even if we had a -NAO and +PNA. It is just the nature of climo here. I still see a lot of positives in this period and think our chance to score on a big storm is better starting next week than at any point this winter. It only takes one of these threats breaking our way with the blocking set up to see a big time event.
  23. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    ...What a great series of posts. A potential storm, 7+ days away and we are worried about the DC Weather Gang stealing our snow already.
  24. Day 2 enhanced for parts of east Texas. Spring has come early!
  25. February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    These are robust and some cases record breaking anomalies. Lining up the upcoming 500mb pattern against snowmagedon you can see how close they are. I don't know yet who is going to get crushed, but I don't think the EC walks away from this potential snowless. You can see the potential lining up for someone.
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