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  2. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    I'm not sure why anyone would discuss the long range modeled pattern in the model thread. Anarchy....chaos.
  3. NNE Winter Thread

    I got an alert on my phone this morning regarding a Winter Weather Advisory for our area. It doesn’t look like it’s really related to any snow, the focus appears to be icing, but here’s a heads up nonetheless of areas to watch out this afternoon:
  4. February 2018 Discussion

    0.19" of rain here overnight, boosting my February total to 3.15".
  5. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    How many times over the years have the models dig a trof in the SW and cut it off in the 7-10 day range only for it to not come to fruition. Happens much much more on the models than it ever verifies...at least in the 15 years or so I've been doing this. And when it does verify, the signs are usually there towards it occurring. This one doesn't really have that..it'd be an anomaly. That is why I really am not too concerned right now until the models show this inside of 5 days. I've seen it so many times where the OP models will cut off a trof in the SW and in turn it wrecks the pattern on the model run but it never actually verifies. Who knows, it could verify this time, but this is something that I've seen before in the past and most times it ends up being overblown. BTW winter patterns in general for this area often feature a lot more that can go wrong than go right even if we had a -NAO and +PNA. It is just the nature of climo here. I still see a lot of positives in this period and think our chance to score on a big storm is better starting next week than at any point this winter. It only takes one of these threats breaking our way with the blocking set up to see a big time event.
  6. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    ...What a great series of posts. A potential storm, 7+ days away and we are worried about the DC Weather Gang stealing our snow already.
  7. Day 2 enhanced for parts of east Texas. Spring has come early!
  8. February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    These are robust and some cases record breaking anomalies. Lining up the upcoming 500mb pattern against snowmagedon you can see how close they are. I don't know yet who is going to get crushed, but I don't think the EC walks away from this potential snowless. You can see the potential lining up for someone.
  9. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    If anyone has the Kocin book handy, or is in front of a reanalysis site....take a look at our historic whiffs....AKA, January 2016, Feb 2010, PD I.....my guess is that had a negative NAO/+PNA couplet.
  10. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Mmm, there is no direct pathway between the AO and the SE ridge in terms of forcing, tho. That's an indirect causality there... with perhaps more than a couple moments of indirection. One thing ... you may know this already but, the AO and NAO merely share domain space. The overlap is ...perhaps 1/3 to 2/5ths the planetary coordinates. This is true all around the hemispheric 'cap' of the AO index's domain space; the EPO also shares domains space similarly ..roughly, similarly. All these teleconnectors are, are regions that are identified as having statistical correlation to other regions. -NAO "tends" to mean higher heights over Greenland, ...and counterbalancing for mass conservation, you have a negative regions - in total = 0 loss. That's really why the correlations even exist... because mass cannot be lost or destroyed.. it's merely moving from point A to B in three dimensional space. Example: You can have a singular node/blocking ridge feature, with a pearled out string of counter-balancing negatives that individually ... one is not sufficiently negative as the ridge is positive, but... 0 loss is achieved in the aggregate - i.e., all of them together ( -L1 + -L2 + -L3 + -L4) + (+H1) = 0 ... or vice versa, (-L1) + ( +H1 + + H2 ...) = 0. The left side of that equation is the constant motion of the three-d mentioned above. So, bringing this home... the AO can be negative and never feature much impact locally to our hemisphere, because all it's counter-balancing phenomenon didn't happen to evolve on our side. More over, the NAO could go through a negative phase state, and the AO can conceivably stay positive at times ...due to the fact that they only share space. So you can't really "assume" a -AO will "combine" with a -NAO to battle the SE ridge... that's not really how it works. And in fact, the SE ridge can remain in place while a -NAO evolves and all it does is compress and blast the hell out of the wind field at mid levels from Texas to Bermuda... .. The SE ridge is really put there by the Pacific for that source of headache tele's ..
  11. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    The majority don't care about that event. The onus is on you to start a thread since its 48 hours out.
  12. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Looks like a good shot of 3-6"+ of snow inland with a mix to rain on the coast up here into CNE and some of NW MA.
  13. February 2018 Discussion

    Very nice weatherbo! Maybe one of these winters you'll see snow up to the top of the stick.
  14. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Bingo.
  15. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Anything south of SNE in this pattern is likely wet vs white. Ensembles clearly show this.
  16. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    I use weathermodels.com and stormvista so can't help ya there. You can get the GEFS individuals 500 mb though on the psu ewall.
  17. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Ok, one storm at time and first things first. Let's talk about the icing threat tonight and then again Saturday night into Sunday. Could get dicey. Looks like a nice little shot of snow for NNE.
  18. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    RNA is the inverse of a PNA. Its currently very negative...I'm in the office, but I'm sure Steve has the chart in his wallet.
  19. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Oh, that is totally fair. I misunderstood you, then.
  20. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    What us the RNA? Is there a chart?
  21. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    The RNA is evolving into a PNA as this all unfolds, which while potentially fueling the development of a storm via additional mass shifts, still is not yet a bonafide PNA. There is modularity there.....not yet established PNA mode.
  22. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    I’m not ruling anything out. Just not as enthusiastic about the pattern as some are
  23. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    I would like to know how many examples there are of a KU event in the mid atl during a bonafide RNA pattern.....honest question. No sarcasm...there may be some, but the utility would be to compare those H5 plots to modeled day 7 charts. 60s may have had some...maybe Jan 2011?
  24. Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    So, to be fair, I thought it might also be useful to look at big -NAOs (-1.0 or higher) that failed to produce anything in March. I went through the NAO data on ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii and searched for values or -1.0 or higher. Below are my results: -1 or higher 3-10-51 3-28-51 3-27-52 3-12-54 3-6-58/ 3-21-58 3-1-62 (almost the whole month lower than -1.0) 3-6-69 3-30-70 3-30-71 3-28-75 3-24-77 3-18-79 3-20-80 3-18-81 3-26-81 3-1-2001 3-11-2005 3-1-06 3-10-2010 3-24-2011 3-21-2013 -2 or higher 2-13-78 (only one that was close to the dates we're looking for; there were some April ones, but that'e getting pretty late in the season) -3 or higher None in the winter If John is willing, I thought it might be useful to look at his family records for a couple weeks after these dates to see if there were storms. If no storm, then I would like to build a composite for those dates as well so we can see what sort of pattern with a -NAO might not produce winter weather.
  25. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    If we have a strong +PNA coinciding with the strong -NAO I would agree, but with west coast troughing I'd think it'll be harder for systems to get buried in the South.
  26. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    The PNA modulates the re ridge in a big way. RNA teleconnects to a se ridge,
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