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  2. yoda

    June Discobs Thread

    15z HRRR brings through a small complex 20z to 21z
  3. IrishRob17

    June 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    I could, probably will do a the part of the yard we use for parties, other than that let Mother Nature deal with it.
  4. That's true. However as for severe, I'm now back into looking towards the next season. 2019, at least for now, looks a bit more promising in terms of seasonal analogs (I saw 2010, 2007, and 2005 mentioned - 2010 and 2007 both being good years and 2005 not being great but still a massive upgrade over this year), but we'll have to see if that holds or if, when we do get good setups, mesoscale features don't actually ruin it.
  5. In all honesty, the moderate seemed a bit overdone. It's a very complex setup and it doesn't take much to throw a wrench in higher-end potential, especially with a seasonally anomalous setup so far south. On the bright side, drought areas have and should continue to get drenched with much needed rainfall.
  6. cyclone77

    June 2018 General Discussion

    The 00z GFS had a string of 6 days (Thu-Tue) of upper 70s or low 80 degree dews over the DVN cwa. Looks like we'll be mowing our lawns about every other day here in the next few weeks.
  7. Hoosier

    June 2018 General Discussion

    GFS is trying to get ORD knocking at the door of 100 on Friday. 925 mb temps near 30C with pretty good mixing and less obscene dews than surrounding areas.
  8. Hoosier

    June 2018 General Discussion

    Maybe late this week? Looking at the 12z GFS rolling in, it has a lot of 82-84 degree dews early Friday evening. For some of our older adults here, if it seems like it's more muggy with more extreme muggy airmasses compared to decades ago, you'd be correct. That is an actual trend backed up by observations... maybe not everywhere (can't recall all the details of the study I read) but definitely in the areas with significant corn crop.
  9. Thundersnow12

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    The parameter space on the NAM is still impressive, more so than previous few runs while the nest has a different solution but given its at its end range I would toss that until we get closer. The potential Tuesday is probably the best we've seen across northern Illinois this year, as we should have plenty of flow with the upper low around...but a lot of ways for things to not work out. See if that makes it to Twitter
  10. michsnowfreak

    June 2018 General Discussion

    The seasons, particularly Winter and summer, are no joke here in the Midwest!
  11. michsnowfreak

    June 2018 General Discussion

    The magic of xmacis. Any stat you want in a few short clicks for any climate location! And I'm sure you are right, you are bound to be cooler in the mountains.
  12. Today
  13. Carvers Gap

    Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

    Yep. Fits the Euro Weeklies pretty well. Looks like seasonal is on the horizon after that - but as a caveat, we all all know how difficult those ridges are to move once established. I do think Nino limo will "cool" temps back to normal for mid-July to late August. I always get these mixed up....so w Nino expect a cool fall, warm early winter, cold mid-late w few extremes?
  14. cyclone77

    June 2018 General Discussion

    That's awesome. It's amazing how this part of the country transforms into jungle type conditions for a few periods every summer. Quite the transition from the extreme cold and dry air masses that we see in January. With the very wet soils in place, and corn running well ahead of average I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see some legit ASOS readings AOA 83 dewpoint at some point this summer.
  15. CheeselandSkies

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    It has been waffling back and forth (as has GFS) with instability and EHI values in the upper Midwest. 12Z was a big step in the right direction over 06Z. Seems to all hinge on what antecedent convection does, as per usual in this neck of the woods. Lapse rates are still kind of mediocre, though and in my experience that is more important than absolute CAPE values. Would like to see them be at least 7c/km throughout the column.
  16. Birds~69

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2018 OBS Thread

    The whole rain thing this weekend has made me chuckled...0.13 yesterday and today looking to be partly/mostly sunny.
  17. Before being downgraded back to Enhanced risk.
  18. EastCoast NPZ

    June Discobs Thread

    Damn. That sucks.
  19. EastCoast NPZ

    June Discobs Thread

    Looks like I timed my trip out west perfectly. Leaving Friday evening for CO. Hopefully, it torches here and gets out of the way by July 9. Forecast for Estes Park is upper 70s / 40s. A welcomed break from the VA heat/humidity.
  20. ChrisBray

    2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread

    As of now, the NAM has quite a nice setup for Tuesday around the quad cities area.
  21. Vice-Regent

    June Discobs Thread

    JeBaited. Watch it happen with the 594 ridge in place.
  22. I've seen this before ... I'll give it to you it's rare. But, comparing the virtual world of weather (modeled realm) vs the real world of weather (what verifies) the former tends to extremes the latter less often experiences, and thus most of those big balloon ridgy heat domes pop before they get inside the mid ranges.... That said... sometimes reality transcends the absurdity of fiction and crazy crap happens. We'll have to see... if we can get this bad-boy to three days of lead, and the actual MOS products (will be < than their climate dimming ...while applying the physics the raw numbers currently are not) than we can start gaining confidence.
  23. Rtd208

    E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2018 OBS Thread

    Temps really starting to respond now, current temp up to 80 here.
  24. Temps really starting to respond now, current temp up to 80 here.
  25. IrishRob17

    June 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    The grass has gone dormant here, less mowing is a plus I suppose.
  26. Outflow is surging south across the Texas panhandle and should reach I-40 in the Amarillo vicinity shortly. Would have to guess that most areas east of US-83 are game over for anything significant. It's unclear if the panhandle outflow will be detrimental, period, or if the atmosphere can recover and use the boundary as a focal point late this afternoon.
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