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43 here

For DFW, as daytime heating gets under way, there *MAY* be a very brief window during the late morning / early afternoon hours today where some tail-end charlies could backbuild and become surface-based with the enhanced low-level covergence, but it will be threading the needle with the better upper-level forcing/dynamics/shear quickly shifting NE.

Da fuck? Sandy tore off all my facia and had water pouring through my windows. I had s $9,000 insurance damage because Sandy.

There has been a shit ton of large hail reports (not surprising given the ample elevated instability and deep layer shear), but per usual with the setups this season, the extensive mid/upper-level cloud cover steadily streaming in from.the Pacific (thanks to the STJ) limited the extent of surface-based instability/cap erosion. Things could still rip further south in OK/TX along the dryline as the shortwave shifts eastward and the LLJ ramps up, but it will primarily continue to be a vivd lightning, flash flooding and large hail threat. Perhaps things will be different in the Fall or next Spring as we transition into a La Nina ENSO state (and the STJ loses its grip).

It is a big decision. This will be my kids second time abroad. She was in England last Spring. As it was her freshman spring semester it was a more guided experience. This time she will actually be taking classes for her major. The idea of attending one of Europes oldest film schools and get hands on experience and connections is what really drew her to her program. It also involves a 20hr language intensive the first week. The best part about going abroad is if you don’t go one semester there are more chances.

Imagine having code purple air quality alerts from the Canadian wildfire redux while looking at the forecast cone for category 5 Hurricane William coming up the Bay.

Seems quiet in here. I take it not much happened today? I saw a few landspout and brief tornado reports, but storms were mainly hail producers. Could see early morning storms (Friday AM) pass from NW Texas into southern Oklahoma, but the tornado threat seems very low. Could see some heavy rain, gusty winds and hail, though.

For some reason, I'm just mot convinced about Caleb Williams...dude smells like a bust to me. Something about him...And he came up so amped up even though he knew he was gonna be the No. 1 overall pick. Talking about the crowd...seems to lack a bit of humility (not to be confused with confidence). For the Bears' sake I hope I'm wrong, but...not a great vibe to me! And...it is the Bears, lol

Holes 1 & 10 are both dogleg left par 5s. 10 is harder because your tee shot can’t go far enough to see around the corner.

I'm okay with the summer wind.

If we Stein we also get nice fires/plumes, exciting!

Another course I haven't played in years but enjoy. I had my worst single hole without a penalty ever . Might have been hole 10? Dog leg left par 5 ? An 11! Just kept topping it for some God only knows reason.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z May 1st (early Wednesday in EDT)

McCarthy from Michigan it is for you guys

I wish there was a similar mega pass for golf. I’d snap one up in a heartbeat. There has been no significant golf consolidation, at least in this area. I’d love to be able to regularly play a rotation of courses as a “member”.

Thats better than my two 79s.

Whats your average last frost? Here its going to be right about on schedule assuming we dont get another one. Also can I finally say the snow season is done haha. 26.4" was all YYZ got which is good for 6th least amount of snow since records began at YYZ in the mid 1930s. I ended up being right talking futility in mid January but I did get a bit nervous there with that late march 2-4" event haha

The major effects of CC to this point haven’t all been bad on a global basis. For example, fewer deaths from temperature extremes resulting from GW due to cold being a much bigger killer than heat. This is largely due to many more hours spent in the cold danger zone than within the heat danger zone in a large majority of locations: “For the majority of the time, most cities have colder temperatures than their local optimum temperature, or the temperature that minimizes the death rate in that area. “It has been estimated that about 5.1 million excess deaths per year are associated with non-optimal temperatures. Of those, 4.6 million are associated with colder than optimum temperatures, and 0.5 million are associated with hotter than optimum temperatures.” “Deaths associated with non-optimal temperatures have been decreasing over time as it has gotten warmer partly due to a reduction in cold deaths. It has been estimated that warming from 2000 to 2019 has resulted in a net decline in excess deaths globally (a larger decrease in cold deaths than an increase in heat deaths).” https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/human-deaths-from-hot-and-cold-temperatures-and-implications-for-climate-change Whereas deaths from temperature extremes have decreased through 2019 per this study, the same study says that there’s much uncertainty looking well out into the future. A good number of models suggest that after deaths continue to drop in the near future, they will start to increase late this century. This is because heat related deaths are being projected by these models to then start increasing more rapidly than the reduction of cold related deaths. From the same study, here’s Figure 10, which shows London as an example: Of course due to that being so far out in the future, there’s lots of uncertainty since increased acclimation/air conditioning could negate a good portion of the projected increase in heat related deaths.

$1799 is cheap.

Hard to say just how loaded the potential is this season. It’s not just the thermal environment, which is off the charts. It’s the rapidly developing Nina and orientation of the SSTAs. Hard to see significant limiting factors at this time.

You are right for me: No big coastal winds are going to reach here in Williamsport. But others in PA are much further east and could get some leftovers that are pretty strong. I am not afraid of a second round of Sandy. The way above average heat already predicted for July and August and the rains possibly coming our way this summer and maybe not just once would be my concerns. Plus we can get indirectly affected by what goes on in other places. We were last summer with Canadian smoke. I guess I just don't like anything interfering with my vision of Williamsport as a place of no extremes, weather or otherwise.

With no winter anymore and little severe . There’s not much to post and talk about othe than rain or Stein years , leaf out or Temps or dews . The one thing we do have this summer / fall is a cane hit . This place will be lit

So the commanders drafted 'Lamar 2.0', and the Ravens have the original. Should be fun to watch locally, even though they may not compete against each other very often. Good pick by the Commanders imo and probably the best QB overall in the draft.

Yea and how bad of a foliage season it is. Edge of your seat type stuff…

Honestly think spring leaf out gets many going more than fall foliage. We as a collective forum used to rush fall foliage by being optimistic about the progress, but feels like spring leaf out has taken over, ha. By September the discussion will turn to how late the foliage is or how it'll be the latest foliage season on record, bank on that .