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  2. I personally think it's unwise to declare "the Nina will stay weak, period" before the typical December/January peaks in magnitude. Last year, that may have been a more sound notion. Also I get the feeling that some of the people counting on an east-based La Nina through winter may have been a bit premature. This east-west propagation that we might be seeing the initial phases of now is fairly common in Nina events.
  3. Region 3.4 is still below -1.0C. It’s been a really, really long time since region 4 has been this cold (also below -1.0C). Thinking we may see a high-end weak La Niña this winter after all...
  4. That's bang on the mean for 2001-2016 and about 2 degrees cooler than last year (which were actually some of the highest November water temps in the observation period). You know if you wanted to look at the raw data instead of some map on twitter.
  5. So it begins, the flooding of the conus with PAC airmass.
  6. It's def. intensifying...we'll see. I'm no ENSO expert...believe me. I'll be the first to admit if I'm wrong.
  7. So you're compromising your objectivity because you don't like me? Sorry, I just don't see where he's coming from since the MEI is also weak. I already said, maybe that rises alot this month....we'll see. I'm huge fan of Chuck, dude....not trying to impugn his efforts, but this one is lost on me.
  8. A few more weak tornadoes have been confirmed from the 18th.
  9. Thank you! Good to know about the area.
  10. Not sure how warm it is but ukmet shows an interesting scenario at 120hrs http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120
  11. I couldn't ignore this!
  12. EF-0 was added today at Hartsville,TN.
  13. This article from The Charlotte Observer gives an explanation as to why low temperatures recorded at the airport during cold weather are much lower than surrounding areas.
  14. That low pressure is forming earlier and more west with each run. I think temps may be a problem but if it catches the vort early and more west, dynamic cooling and evaporative cooling will cool the column and produce wet snow. Each run the accumulated precipitation has been drifting west. Let’s see how early that low forms and how west in the future runs. Definitely something to keep an eye on!
  15. The DGZ just stayed right in the mid to upper slope levels through most of the day, so your max low level terrain forced lift was in a perfect spot.
  16. Sunday looks pretty decent there...obviously a ways out still and something as nuanced as upslope can change a lot, but most guidance has the ULL with decent synoptic moisture on NW flow. Some even try to give an inverted trough look.
  17. They do some pretty solid work. It'll be nice when we absorb some of their forecasters when the consolidation starts. This was a good example of the shortwaves Will always talks about, where the flow is zipping along and the models don't see it until it is 00 hour. This wave happened to be a little more amplified than forecast. Hi-res models did whiff completely on it though. I took a look at the forecast soundings for HIE though, and saw saturated to near-saturated low levels and the DGZ was nearly to the surface. I don't care if 700 mb isn't saturated, that will produce snow showers every time with westerly flow over the terrain. Chuck in some lake enhancement, and you have a recipe for an overperformer. I think this settles it though, we're going to add Pittsburg as a verification point for snowfall. We're going to make snow forecasts great again.
  18. Snow showers possible Sunday Maybe more if the ull can dig further south
  19. Wow at those ratios! That's pretty cool. I was thinking 40:1. The atmospheric conditions that have to come together for that... though its basically a cold airmass and some moisture being pushed over the mountains. You get that solid orographic lift coupled with prime dendritic snow growth zone and it snows. It may be high-ratio but its a fun afternoon of weather.
  20. Those are some great shots of the snowfall – trying to catch images of snowfall and do it justice is one of my favorite photography challenges. It looks like 6.1” is the final for the snowfall here, barring anything else falling tonight. We were following a fairly average snowfall progression for the month, but this event had definitely pushed us several inches ahead of average pace. We’re still not to the point of guaranteeing an above average month, but we’ll see how things go over the next 10 days.
  21. Hello 2018!
  22. I got another picture of lenticular clouds near sunset last night. I just didn't get a very beautiful backdrop-- it was a just in my neighborhood. I had seen some pictures of orange-colored lenticular clouds seen from the Broncos game last night, on social media.
  23. I liked the Weeklies tonight. Overall pattern is ridge West, trough of varying degrees in the East, and a SER battling the trough. Blocking up top. Overall, that look is a good one and appears stable. The snow mean is up for the entire forum area w everybody 2"+ w eastern areas pushing 4-8" in the valleys for the 46 day period ending the first week of January. What is encouraging is that normal temps are modeled for late Dec and early Jan. I won't post maps this time as the Weeklies are very consistent compared to past runs.
  24. Theme on the Euro Weeklies beginning with Week 3 is a NE Siberia to Bering Sea Low with ridging in W Canada and Alaska....with -AO. Signal is there for above normal heights thru the run in the high latitudes. It's a pattern that should favor a solid trough into the heart of the U.S. Sfc temps are generally below normal east of the Rockies, centered over the Great Lakes. 850 below normal temps are generally confined to the North Central States / Great Lakes.
  25. After the 2nd explosion is when the sh*t really hit the fan. Most of the workers were out and vails gate and city of Newburgh firefighters were doing an interior search and attack. At that time, everyone was there or were on the way, state firefighters from Stewart, DEC, etc. heard even homeland security, FBI was there. I had a feeling this would have happened there sooner or later. Just passing the building you could smell the nail polish fumes in the air. A real sweatshop IMO. edit. They found the body of the missing man inside the building.
  26. So it was a flizzard in other words.
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