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  2. Severe Potential 2/19-2/20

    Severe-warned storm complex (up to 60 mph winds, quarter size hail) ongoing near Brownwood and San Saba in central Texas. We'll have to see how this evolves. 6z HRRR run predicts a decrease in intensity as it passes Brownwood, but the model placed the storm further northwest. This same model also predicts stronger storms for the DFW area later on. EDIT: best storm parameters are to the northwest of this complex (helicity, shear, EHI and the like), but it doesn't seem like we'll be getting a storm developing in that area to take advantage of those parameters.
  3. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Course, but it's certainly better than wanting suppression, especially with the unconventional storm track that the GFS keeps throwing at us. Is it just all on how strong the -NAO is? IIRC, the NAO has been teased at being negative (especially in late Dec), but has been positive. Especially since the GEFS is basically showing that the NAO will be off the charts negative
  4. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    I'm crossing my fingers on that one. So far, tough not to like the trends going forward. The second week of March is looking like the breaking point for here. I hope it verifies, but still a long ways to go. Until then, I'm just going to enjoy the nice weather. I'll be in FL tomorrow around Lauderdale and the Keys, so I'm taking a little hiatus from winter and the forums for a few days. Hopefully when I come back, rumors of storms and the block will still be abound.
  5. Mountain West Discussion

    Weird graupel / sleet mix down here where I live. I've only seen sleet/slop like this a couple times here, its almost always a clean transition from rain to snow at night. Areas just east of me likely went to snow, as they are a touch higher, while areas closer to the valley floor probably stayed all rain. Another band may try to come in later, would be snow.
  6. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    At some point it may be a concern here. GEFS has been hinting at events for the Carolinas that would likely miss us.
  7. Today
  8. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Yeah I nitpick too. But it is what it is. Given its a Nina winter, we aren't likely to get "perfection". That block is a bully though. Retros the pattern and gets the PAC look at least serviceable. Just imagine what that panel looks like with a neutral or +NAO. Lets just hope the NAO does verify something close to -3 SD.
  9. Feb. 19-24 Heavy rain and flooding threat

    There was a band of 8-11". Of course there are different considerations this time with it being in an entirely different season with frozen ground so half the rain may be just about as bad. Overall could end up being one of the better winter flood events in LOT since January 2008.
  10. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    lol @ the New England subforum worrying about suppression in this upcoming pattern. We just gotta hope their fears come to fruition (sorry New England forum)
  11. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    If someone doesn't like that look for March, they should move to FL or AZ. That's a great signal for the east coast. Wish the PAC was a little nicer, but beggars can't be choosers.
  12. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    What a sweet look. Might have to save this one lol.
  13. February 2018 Discussion

    Was nice while it lasted. Cold front passed a few hours ago and knocked us back into the low 40s. Hit 58 here earlier, and DVN/MLI both tagged 63. Models have pushed the next wave a bit further east, so it looks like we won't get back into the warm sector tomorrow. Have picked up 0.50" so far for the event, which is the best rains we've seen since way back in mid October. Should tack on another half inch to an inch before she shuts down tomorrow afternoon.
  14. Feb. 19-24 Heavy rain and flooding threat

    Have been doing a little research here. That record crest of 13,5 feet predicted for the Kankakee River at Shelby IN is higher than the previous record which occurred in Sept. 2008 when the remnants of Hurricane IKE inundated much of nw IN. Hobart had major flooding of Deep River (Lake George). The Little Calumet flooded business concerns on Calumet avenue just south of I-80 in Munster, and I-80 itself was flooded at times. The next few days with successive bouts of rain are going to have to be watched very carefully. I don't recall the total amount of rainfall in nw IN for that episode however.
  15. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Sweet mercy!!! If this is still modeled by the end of the week...wow. Could get interesting!!
  16. February 2018 Discussion

    Being in the 50s for about 12 hours has obviously done a number on the snowpack, but still have some patches and piles outside my window. RIP snow.
  17. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    It will be like a perfectly cold, snowy January for most.
  18. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Hopefully not like this January
  19. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    You get rates, snow will stick, roads will cave. It's gonna happen all over the subforum. Many will be amazed. It will seem like January to many.
  20. Feb. 19-24 Heavy rain and flooding threat

    A creek by my house is starting to flood over the road already, will likely be impassable by morning. Only have seen that happen twice in the 10 years ive lived here. “Water over road” signs have been up since early afternoon in anticipation of it happening I guess.
  21. Feb. 19-24 Heavy rain and flooding threat

    I think the amounts are overdone in general. We will be coming off of mild temps so there should be at least a little lag time before icing sets in. Also, there are indications of enough cold air in the low levels to possibly result in a change to sleet, which would further cut down on the freezing rain. I'd watch the hi-res models to see if they start extending the window.
  22. Feb. 19-24 Heavy rain and flooding threat

    PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1134 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1130 PM FLOOD CRETE 41.45N 87.62W 02/19/2018 WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER US ROUTE 1 BETWEEN CRETE MONEE ROAD TO THE NORTH AND ELMS COURT TO THE SOUTH IS IMPASSABLE. ESTIMATES APPROACHING 1 FOOT DEEP OF FLOWING WATER.
  23. Feb. 19-24 Heavy rain and flooding threat

    I can't remember a grand river watershed-wide flood warning either. We're under flood watch in the upper Thames district. North Thames and the Avon rivers ran high last spring or winter after the melt and something like 60mm but nothing significant. Not sure the flood risk out this way.
  24. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Careful posting fantasy snow maps. A couple angry elves around here don't like LR optimism in the LR thread
  25. February is upon us - pattern change is in order

    Or in January
  26. Feb. 19-24 Heavy rain and flooding threat

    Flood Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 1053 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 ...Forecast flooding Changed from Major to Record severity for the following rivers in Indiana... Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake and Newton Counties ...Forecast flooding Changed from Moderate to Major severity for the following rivers in Indiana... Kankakee River at Dunns Bridge affecting Porter County Kankakee River near Kouts affecting Jasper and Porter Counties .Synopsis...Heavy rainfall of 1.5 to 4 inches is likely through Tuesday night with locally heavier amounts in excess of 3 inches possible. The combination of this heavy rainfall, frozen ground, and some snow melt will result in major flooding, and possibly record flooding on portions of the Kankakee River. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Safety message...If you encounter a flooded roadway...turn around and find an alternate route. Additional information can be found at weather.gov/chicago. && INC089-111-201652- /O.CON.KLOT.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /SLBI3.3.ER.180220T0035Z.180222T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/ 1053 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 ...Forecast flooding increased from Major to Record severity... The Flood Warning continues for The Kankakee River at Shelby. * until further notice. * At 945 PM Monday the stage was 9.3 feet. * Flood stage is 9.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.5 feet by Thursday afternoon then begin falling. * Impact...At 13.0 feet...Indiana Route 55 is flooded. Extensive flooding occurs to the Sumava Resorts area. Water approaches the top of levees. && LAT...LON 4118 8722 4111 8753 4121 8756 4127 8727 $$ Flood Warning Flood Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il 1044 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018 ILC031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-099-103-105-141-197-INC073- 089-111-127-201645- /O.NEW.KLOT.FA.W.0001.180220T0444Z-180220T1645Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kendall IL-La Salle IL-DuPage IL-Cook IL-Livingston IL-Ogle IL- Will IL-Lee IL-De Kalb IL-Grundy IL-Kankakee IL-Ford IL-Kane IL- Iroquois IL-Porter IN-Newton IN-Lake IN-Jasper IN- 1044 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Flood Warning for Urban Areas and Small Streams in... Kendall County in northeastern Illinois... La Salle County in north central Illinois... DuPage County in northeastern Illinois... Cook County in northeastern Illinois... Livingston County in central Illinois... Southeastern Ogle County in north central Illinois... Will County in northeastern Illinois... Lee County in north central Illinois... De Kalb County in north central Illinois... Grundy County in northeastern Illinois... Kankakee County in northeastern Illinois... Central Ford County in east central Illinois... Kane County in northeastern Illinois... Northern Iroquois County in east central Illinois... Porter County in northwestern Indiana... Northern Newton County in northwestern Indiana... Lake County in northwestern Indiana... Northern Jasper County in northwestern Indiana... * Until 1045 AM CST Tuesday * At 1041 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain which will cause flooding. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen in some areas. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area through Tuesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
  27. Mountain West Discussion

    roughly 3" total, given some settling during the course of the day. Was real heavy right around 9 PM, easily 1" per hour if not double that, but only for 20 minutes or so... now tapering. Would have been nice to have that rate all night. Kind of a nice surprise!
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