December 14th and onward discussion thread

[chapelhillwx]

I had 15 this morning at around 8 as I left for school. Fine time to have a non-working heater!

[FoothillsNC]

While cold last night, it still was not as cold for most in NC as last week. Charlotte got down to 15 this morning, whereas it got down to 12 last week.

This cold outbreak has always looked colder than last for NC. The nightly temps were up as expected due to the winds, but the highs are substantially colder. We'll see if today is colder as well. I think the GFS nailed this once again from about 5 days out, kudos to that model. Over the last 2 years once it had a cold blast in its sights within 96 hours, its been on fire in NC. So yes this is even colder for NC than the one last week. Not just for Charlotte but areas further west and northwest. Way colder in the mountains. The coldest high in Asheville last week was 26. Yesterdays high there was 20. I was always puzzled by the TV and NWS going for warmer weather in the Carolinas on this outbreak than the last one, when every single model had us colder than that outbreak from several days out.

Shelby

Charlotte

[eyewall]

I agree the airmass as a whole is definitely colder than the last one. The winds needed to decouple for it to really drop. It seems to me at least in this area we may see our coldest lows tonight. I would not be surprised if we headed toward 12 to 13 degrees in my backyard tonight. NWS had a low of 19 forecasted for tonight in Ocala, FL if that tells you anything. Anyway I will be looking for the phasing and necessary waves when it comes to the weekend event on the 12z GFS as I have been following that run to run. I honestly would like to see the PAC NW wave in the RAOBS network before truly getting excited about anything.

[FoothillsNC]

I agree the airmass as a whole is definitely colder than the last one. The winds needed to decouple for it to really drop. It seems to me at least in this area we may see our coldest lows tonight. I would not be surprised if we headed toward 12 to 13 degrees in my backyard tonight. NWS had a low of 19 forecasted for tonight in Ocala, FL if that tells you anything. Anyway I will be looking for the phasing and necessary waves when it comes to the weekend event on the 12z GFS as I have been following that run to run. I honestly would like to see the PAC NW wave in the RAOBS network before truly getting excited about anything.

I agree tonight will be colder in your area for sure.

[weatherheels]

992 low sitting on Hatteras at 114..... that gets me excited.

[burgertime]

12z GFS makes I-40 north the big winner in central NC.

[burgertime]

BTW it's not a bad looking run, the fact is the storm is still there and it's still close. What it will look like by Friday though is anybody's guess.

[weatherheels]

BTW it's not a bad looking run, the fact is the storm is still there and it's still close. What it will look like by Friday though is anybody's guess.

Very true. We've all seen these storms shift hundreds of miles in the days leading up to, so we just need to keep this baby in the right vicinity and see if we can get lucky.

[eyewall]

12z GFS verbatim would be a second consecutive birthday screw job for me in Southern Pines due to p-type problems / temps being too warm. Definitely some more phasing on this run though as opposed to last night. One thing is for sure consistency on having a storm is now becoming established.

[strongwxnc]

Not a bad looking run at all!!

Meaning like wall said, it is very constant now....Now, lets work those temps out

BTW it's not a bad looking run, the fact is the storm is still there and it's still close. What it will look like by Friday though is anybody's guess.

[Brick Tamland]

12z GFS makes I-40 north the big winner in central NC.

How big of a winner are you talking about?

[Poimen]

The GFS just needs to trend a tad colder and much of central/western NC could have a good hit. Fingers crossed. Verbatim it looks like mostly rain here, except a changeover possibly sometime Saturday night before ending.

[FoothillsNC]

This run of the GFS on the weekend stormis about the same as previous run. For NC, we will be dealing with raw, damp , mild conditions Friday and only slowly is the atmopshere cooling. By Saturday the Gulf low is now just south of Macon GA, which is too far north for anything but rain in all of GA and SC, and maybe by then enough cold air is worked into ne Tn for some wet flakes and in southwest VA but its a race of moisture and phasing of how cold it will get and how far south. This usually never works out in most of NC outside of the mountains, but I cant say that it won't because in Mar 09 the cold wrapped in (different setup here though) and we have extreme rare blocking, so something couild happen. Literally NC is right at the heart of the batteground when the atmosphere really begins to change as the storm deepens rapidly. The crashing heights would argue for a pretty quick changeover in the northern Mountains first midday Saturday and by then most of Southern Virginia is probably in heavy synoptic snow.

As the day wears on the 850 takes better shape over CLT region, so I'd expect northwest of that track to have the best snow rates, which would be the mountains, esp. the n. Mtns , possibly down to Asheville with good accumulations and if the surface temps support it, then the Greensboro and points west area will make the switch. Charlotte....rain The 850 low and surface is too close still. By dark its reaching the coast and developing strongly, so the backside will turn over briefly to snow in much of NC but by then the real moisture is bombing the State of Virginia DC and the Midatlantic up to NYC with heavy snow. It looks like a good one for them on this run.

I'm not saying this run is exactly how it works out but for southern NC its going to be tough to pull this off, but we could. The further north and west youare, the better. Its too bad we dont have much colder air in place to start or this would be a whopper of a wet snowstorm from n. Ga , w. SC most of interior NC and up the East coast, like so many of the 80's storms were. Still plenty of time to see how it all unfolds, but I admit I hate waiting for the weak upper cold to get in, not to mention being in a lower elevation its very hard for surface temps to cooperate. See what the Euro says.

[DCMetroWinston]

This cold outbreak has always looked colder than last for NC. The nightly temps were up as expected due to the winds, but the highs are substantially colder. We'll see if today is colder as well. I think the GFS nailed this once again from about 5 days out, kudos to that model. Over the last 2 years once it had a cold blast in its sights within 96 hours, its been on fire in NC. So yes this is even colder for NC than the one last week. Not just for Charlotte but areas further west and northwest. Way colder in the mountains. The coldest high in Asheville last week was 26. Yesterdays high there was 20. I was always puzzled by the TV and NWS going for warmer weather in the Carolinas on this outbreak than the last one, when every single model had us colder than that outbreak from several days out.

Ok, you are right. IT's just that for me, the lows duirng a cold outbreak are more impressive, the signature event for the potency of the cold. For instance, if the low is 3 degrees and the high 35, I am more impressed than if the low is 14 and the high is 22.

[FoothillsNC]

Ok, you are right. IT's just that for me, the lows duirng a cold outbreak are more impressive, the signature event for the potency of the cold. For instance, if the low is 3 degrees and the high 35, I am more impressed than if the low is 14 and the high is 22.

Personally, I'm way more impressed with advection cold, where it can slice through you in the daytime. Nighttimes are so prone to variation and radiation. But this is splitting hairs, its just plain cold!

[strongwxnc]

It is as simple as needing the LP to be further S? I assume this would allow for more cold air to enter our region (Southern NC, upstate SC and NEGA).

If so then the trend needs to be of a south move with the LP.

This run of the GFS on the weekend stormis about the same as previous run. For NC, we will be dealing with raw, damp , mild conditions Friday and only slowly is the atmopshere cooling. By Saturday the Gulf low is now just south of Macon GA, which is too far north for anything but rain in all of GA and SC, and maybe by then enough cold air is worked into ne Tn for some wet flakes and in southwest VA but its a race of moisture and phasing of how cold it will get and how far south. This usually never works out in most of NC outside of the mountains, but I cant say that it won't because in Mar 09 the cold wrapped in (different setup here though) and we have extreme rare blocking, so something couild happen. Literally NC is right at the heart of the batteground when the atmosphere really begins to change as the storm deepens rapidly. The crashing heights would argue for a pretty quick changeover in the northern Mountains first midday Saturday and by then most of Southern Virginia is probably in heavy synoptic snow.

As the day wears on the 850 takes better shape over CLT region, so I'd expect northwest of that track to have the best snow rates, which would be the mountains, esp. the n. Mtns , possibly down to Asheville with good accumulations and if the surface temps support it, then the Greensboro and points west area will make the switch. Charlotte....rain The 850 low and surface is too close still. By dark its reaching the coast and developing strongly, so the backside will turn over briefly to snow in much of NC but by then the real moisture is bombing the State of Virginia DC and the Midatlantic up to NYC with heavy snow. It looks like a good one for them on this run.

I'm not saying this run is exactly how it works out but for southern NC its going to be tough to pull this off, but we could. The further north and west youare, the better. Its too bad we dont have much colder air in place to start or this would be a whopper of a wet snowstorm from n. Ga , w. SC most of interior NC and up the East coast, like so many of the 80's storms were. Still plenty of time to see how it all unfolds, but I admit I hate waiting for the weak upper cold to get in, not to mention being in a lower elevation its very hard for surface temps to cooperate. See what the Euro says.

[BullCityWx]

My sounding is close at 108, it's the same two layers as last year that's screwing me though.

[eyewall]

This run of the GFS on the weekend stormis about the same as previous run. For NC, we will be dealing with raw, damp , mild conditions Friday and only slowly is the atmopshere cooling. By Saturday the Gulf low is now just south of Macon GA, which is too far north for anything but rain in all of GA and SC, and maybe by then enough cold air is worked into ne Tn for some wet flakes and in southwest VA but its a race of moisture and phasing of how cold it will get and how far south. This usually never works out in most of NC outside of the mountains, but I cant say that it won't because in Mar 09 the cold wrapped in (different setup here though) and we have extreme rare blocking, so something couild happen. Literally NC is right at the heart of the batteground when the atmosphere really begins to change as the storm deepens rapidly. The crashing heights would argue for a pretty quick changeover in the northern Mountains first midday Saturday and by then most of Southern Virginia is probably in heavy synoptic snow.

As the day wears on the 850 takes better shape over CLT region, so I'd expect northwest of that track to have the best snow rates, which would be the mountains, esp. the n. Mtns , possibly down to Asheville with good accumulations and if the surface temps support it, then the Greensboro and points west area will make the switch. Charlotte....rain The 850 low and surface is too close still. By dark its reaching the coast and developing strongly, so the backside will turn over briefly to snow in much of NC but by then the real moisture is bombing the State of Virginia DC and the Midatlantic up to NYC with heavy snow. It looks like a good one for them on this run.

I'm not saying this run is exactly how it works out but for southern NC its going to be tough to pull this off, but we could. The further north and west youare, the better. Its too bad we dont have much colder air in place to start or this would be a whopper of a wet snowstorm from n. Ga , w. SC most of interior NC and up the East coast, like so many of the 80's storms were. Still plenty of time to see how it all unfolds, but I admit I hate waiting for the weak upper cold to get in, not to mention being in a lower elevation its very hard for surface temps to cooperate. See what the Euro says.

Not what we want to hear but definitely a realistic scenario. I would agree with much of this.

[strongwxnc]

My sufrace sounding go below o at HR 114. Up to that point it is around 1.8

That is with

0.34 inches of Precipitate water

My sounding is close at 108, it's the same two layers as last year that's screwing me though.

[burrel2]

FWIW, the 12z nogaps hammers the Upstate and Central SC and Central/Eastern NC this weekend...

[tnweathernut]

Looking at the 500 maps on the 12z GFS, and other runs as well - it appears as if this is just stale cold air trapped underneath a beautiful block over Greenland. Pacific is still (and has been) absolutely horrible this whole time. If there were a fresh high coming down from Canada and into the midwest and OH valleys, i'd get excited. There is a lot against this one (temp wise) to get too excited at this point. Sure, someone in the mountains could score, but not many other people (as it stands now).

Maybe the 1025ish high as depicted on the GFS will come in a few MB's higher and into a better location to help us out. Who knows. Let's get this crappy thing outta here for Thursday and the models should have a much better handle on the situation for the weekend.

[Poimen]

FWIW, the 12z nogaps hammers the Upstate and Central SC and Central/Eastern NC next weekend...

This post is worthless without pics!

[Amos83]

This far out I'm happy just to have the storm still showing up. I wouldn't put too much stock into what any model shows this far out because they are having a hard enough time in the 2-3 day range.

Without digging too deep and just looking at the surface maps the low starts off in the GOM, tracks across the FL panhandle and then southern GA. This is ALMOST a classic track for a big snow for W. NC and the piedmont. What we need is for the LP to track a little further south and east than what is currently showing before I get my hopes up at all.

[kennedy]

FWIW, the 12z nogaps hammers the Upstate and Central SC and Central/Eastern NC next weekend...

Like as in NEXT weekend? Christmas right? So many storms to drool over.......................

[rduwx]

This weekends storm is going to be real close for the RDU area. The 12z gfs has a rain to snow situation but the problem is most of it is rain. If we can get a phase like the 12z gfs shows but have the track a little further south and east we might could pull it off. Of course it would be nice to have a high sitting somewhere to the north but it doesn't look like that's going to happen here. At hr 108 you could tell the northern stream was going to phase and this was going to climb the coast. The only problem is it's to close to the coast. For those that don't know what a phase is, posted below is the 108 and 114 hrs of the gfs and the phasing that takes place. At 108 you can see the northern stream dropping south and at 114 you can see they phase together.

[burrel2]

Like as in NEXT weekend? Christmas right? So many storms to drool over.......................

Sorry I meant to say "this weekend"

[kennedy]

Sorry I meant to say "this weekend"

Hey I am totally down with any weekend that involves snow!

[griteater]

This weekends storm is going to be real close for the RDU area. The 12z gfs has a rain to snow situation but the problem is most of it is rain. If we can get a phase like the 12z gfs shows but have the track a little further south and east we might could pull it off. Of course it would be nice to have a high sitting somewhere to the north but it doesn't look like that's going to happen here. At hr 108 you could tell the northern stream was going to phase and this was going to climb the coast. The only problem is it's to close to the coast. For those that don't know what a phase is, posted below is the 108 and 114 hrs of the gfs and the phasing that takes place. At 108 you can see the northern stream dropping south and at 114 you can see they phase together.

You got it. The only way for this to work along a line from GVL to CLT to RDU is for the upper low to phase, be stronger, and further south with the vort max tracking through Hilton Head or Savannah. Otherwise, we have no way to get cold enough air in here. Unfortunately, I think the chance of that happening is very slim.

[dsaur]

Experiment had a low of 14.7 on their official instruments...over here on the balmy nw side of the county I had 15.3, 16.3 and 16.7.

My mantra for this year is the same as last....no lows allowed in Ga. All lows must travel thru Fla. T

[EmersonGA]

It seems like the huge snowpack to our north would help out a little more. If this turns out to be another cold rain after huge cold I think I'm going to move to DC.