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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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But we want it in Siberia, right? Or does it matter if it snows in Canada early?

 

The only thing we care about is the rate of snow cover increase in October. A snowless NH in sept is totally fine. Then we want it to pile up to Jeb style piles all Oct in Siberia. 

 

Last year was an interesting case. It piled up in the second half of September so there wasn't that much left to cover in Oct. The rate was small and the +AO did in fact respond in Dec. It then collapsed and overall never mattered much because even with a +AO it snowed in Dec. We simply got lucky and maximized all year last year. No way we do it 2 years in a row. We're going to need a -ao/nao combo on the means this year to hit or exceed climo imo. 

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@RaleighWX helping us out here:

 

 

Here is an interesting winter climo indice stat. Since 1950 17 Dec-Feb periods average between 0.4 and 1.4. Or weak/mod El Nino. Of those 17
 

8 had a QBO that averaged negative in the same period Of those 8 winters all 8 had a DJF -AO, and 7/8 had a -NAO 1979-80 exception with 0.1

 

 

We are expected a weak/mod El Nino, and a -QBO this winter This stat and also some past QBO research, suggests frequent blocking this winter

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even if we get a nino, unless it is high end moderate, I don't think we'll get a negative height anomaly south of the aleutians unless the PDO spikes...which means we'll need a great atlantic...

 

Yea, no clear cut answers yet. If I had to guess, I would say one or the other will be favorable for a period when it counts this year. I doubt we have an hideous Pac AND ghastly Atl. Just a guess though. 

 

I don't think this winter will be door to door. It seems more likely that we'll toss a decent period due to a hostile pattern. Which is pretty normal around here. 

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The only thing we care about is the rate of snow cover increase in October. A snowless NH in sept is totally fine. Then we want it to pile up to Jeb style piles all Oct in Siberia. 

 

Last year was an interesting case. It piled up in the second half of September so there wasn't that much left to cover in Oct. The rate was small and the +AO did in fact respond in Dec. It then collapsed and overall never mattered much because even with a +AO it snowed in Dec. We simply got lucky and maximized all year last year. No way we do it 2 years in a row. We're going to need a -ao/nao combo on the means this year to hit or exceed climo imo. 

last year showed (not necessarily proved) that a rapid rise in September could do it too

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last year showed (not necessarily proved) that a rapid rise in September could do it too

 

Based on the index itself, it definitely verified though. The AO was crazy positive in Nov-Dec. We hit +4sd each month with only a very short period in the negative.

 

I've kinda wondered if the early rise in late Oct lasting through nearly the end of Dec helped us. Ran out of steam. If the big rise started in Dec and lasted that long....ouch. It's one of the few (if not only) times a big +AO in Dec completely reversed and went nearly -1 for Jan. I don't want to test a big Dec +AO this year. That's for sure. 

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Based on the index itself, it definitely verified though. The AO was crazy positive in Nov-Dec. We hit +4sd each month with only a very short period in the negative.

 

I've kinda wondered if the early rise in late Oct lasting through nearly the end of Dec helped us. Ran out of steam. If the big rise started in Dec and lasted that long....ouch. It's one of the few (if not only) times a big +AO in Dec completely reversed and went nearly -1 for Jan. I don't want to test a big Dec +AO this year. That's for sure. 

must you use that word......I just had my egd and back end test this morning    :yikes:

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Hey guys, I live in the Philly suburbs but Ive been reading your sub-forum for a while now and a ton of great discussions going on in here ( Philly's sub-forum is dead as your probably know ). Regarding the developing nino, I believe its almost a lock we'll get one. Now can we get nino areas 3.4 and 4 closer to +1.0 C remains to be seen. But with a -PDO as described above, it could be somewhat a moot point. Still, having a active sub tropical jet with times of a -AO/-NAO combo would be nice.

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I posted this in the enso thread on the main board. Things are slowly improving in 3.4. Ensembles also show a favorable pattern in the npac basin as a whole to cool the PDO region. Could be transient of course but definitely not a bad look for the next 2 weeks. I'm becoming a bit more optimistic that things may break in our favor through the end of the month. The big ? is whether Oct will fook it all up or not. 

 

anomnight.9.11.2014.gif

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Nino 4 looks fairly toasty while Nino 3 looks neutral or even a touch cool.  

 

Yep, it's been an agonizing process to say the least. It's a massive improvement from where we were just a month ago in the western half of the nino regions. 

 

I remember looking at this plot back in August and thinking we had big problems on our hands but it was still way too early to hit any panic buttons. 

 

anomnight.8.14.2014.gif

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How do you make Mitch excited, mad, happy, and sad all at the same time? Just post the last 25 CFS ensemble runs for December temps. The CFS is the sawed off shotgun of long range modeling. One pellet is bound to accidentally hit the target. 

 

attachicon.gifcfsdec.JPG

 

My money is on the member on the bottom row, 2nd from the right.

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This is worth a read.  If you like to laugh that is.....  Apparently, JB pens under a fictitious name.

 

http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/#.VBDjFJ7fMjF.facebook

 

 

I know I'm stocking up my pantry, starting this weekend.

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This is worth a read.  If you like to laugh that is.....  Apparently, JB pens under a fictitious name.

 

http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/#.VBDjFJ7fMjF.facebook

 

 

I know I'm stocking up my pantry, starting this weekend.

 

 

Lol. I was just going to post this link. Stock up on your powdered milk now. It is one of the most ridiculous articles I have ever read. 50 times your normal snowfall anyone?

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