Late warning for Springfield

[bobbutts]

http://ryanhanrahan....-massachusetts/

Incredibly, even with a reported funnel cloud at Barnes Airport, there was no tornado warning on this storm until about 10 minutes after the storm struck Westfield. Radar showed strong rotation over Westfield about 15 minutes before the tornado warning was issued. The funnel was observed by the airport at 4:23 p.m. and it took until 4:30 p.m. for the warning to go out.

I just don't get it.. was the guy who issued warnings in the bathroom or something? It's not like this popped up suddenly on a clear day, there was a tornado watch, and many of us were already focusing on this cell and it's impressive velocity plots. Add in the ground report and it's a slam dunk imo.

What went wrong?

[ineedsnow]

i was on 91 around exit 10 and i heard the warning on the radio and not even a minute later it was right in front of me lead time was a minute or less for people in springfield!

[CT Rain]

It's an interesting question... I don't know what went wrong. Looking back at the radar starting at about 4:10 there was strong rotation showing up west of Westfield. By about 4:20 we had nearly 120 knots of gate to gate shear in the lowest slice. At 4:24 BAF reported a FC and the warning went out at 4:30.

These things are never easy and the NWS does a fantastic job. There's always things that can go wrong and it's easy to be sitting here on my couch looking at radar saying holy crap look at that thing. There are all sorts of demands and tasks put on forecasters issuing warnings that could complicate the process especially since they already had a warning out on the Northampton cell which looked very nasty at the time.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I think Eleanor was one of the MET's on duty. Maybe she can elaborate.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Are tornadoes in this area harder to see on radar/instruments due to terrain? I know I know... dumb question

Plenty of posters were posting radar shots and asking when they were going to issue the TOR warning for such and such a cell.

Then a minute or 2 later, it would be issued. If the folks on here could see it, shouldn't they be able to?

[Hoosier]

It's an interesting question... I don't know what went wrong. Looking back at the radar starting at about 4:10 there was strong rotation showing up west of Westfield. By about 4:20 we had nearly 120 knots of gate to gate shear in the lowest slice. At 4:24 BAF reported a FC and the warning went out at 4:30.

These things are never easy and the NWS does a fantastic job. There's always things that can go wrong and it's easy to be sitting here on my couch looking at radar saying holy crap look at that thing. There are all sorts of demands and tasks put on forecasters issuing warnings that could complicate the process especially since they already had a warning out on the Northampton cell which looked very nasty at the time.

It seems pretty inexcusable to me. BOX's area of responsibility isn't that large geographically speaking and it's not like this was a brief area of rotation embedded within a line. It was pretty obvious...I'm curious as to why the warning wasn't put out sooner.

[Ian]

Are tornadoes in this area harder to see on radar/instruments due to terrain? I know I know... dumb question

Plenty of posters were posting radar shots and asking when they were going to issue the TOR warning for such and such a cell.

Then a minute or 2 later, it would be issued. If the folks on here could see it, shouldn't they be able to?

it's pretty standard for people on this board to call for torn warns before they are issued (even when they are never issued for a reason)... i think you can get a certain level of rotation without there actually being a reason to warn. maybe the nws should dedicate one employee to read the boards all day.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It's an interesting question... I don't know what went wrong. Looking back at the radar starting at about 4:10 there was strong rotation showing up west of Westfield. By about 4:20 we had nearly 120 knots of gate to gate shear in the lowest slice. At 4:24 BAF reported a FC and the warning went out at 4:30.

These things are never easy and the NWS does a fantastic job. There's always things that can go wrong and it's easy to be sitting here on my couch looking at radar saying holy crap look at that thing. There are all sorts of demands and tasks put on forecasters issuing warnings that could complicate the process especially since they already had a warning out on the Northampton cell which looked very nasty at the time.

Do the media folks ever on air say things like "They should issue a warning" for a cell? I seem to remember a couple of weeks ago some of the mid-west streams having mets saying things like that on air.

[CT Rain]

it's pretty standard for people on this board to call for torn warns before they are issued (even when they are never issued for a reason)... i think you can get a certain level of rotation without there actually being a reason to warn. maybe the nws should dedicate one employee to read the boards all day.

lol if they issued a tornado warning everytime some weenie here posted that they should we'd get one every time it rained!

The NWS normally does a phenomenal job I'm not sure it's fair to second guess decisions because we weren't there. As I said it's easy to sit at home and just focus on one storm... we're not multitasking in a highly stressful environment during one of the worst SNE tornado outbreaks since 1989.

[weatherMA]

Do the media folks ever on air say things like "They should issue a warning" for a cell? I seem to remember a couple of weeks ago some of the mid-west streams having mets saying things like that on air.

I heard that a few times yesterday on channel 4... "They should probably warn that cell"...2 minutes later a warning would come out.

[Ian]

lol if they issued a tornado warning everytime some weenie here posted that they should we'd get one every time it rained!

The NWS normally does a phenomenal job I'm not sure it's fair to second guess decisions because we weren't there. As I said it's easy to sit at home and just focus on one storm... we're not multitasking in a highly stressful environment during one of the worst SNE tornado outbreaks since 1989.

it did seem they were a bit slow y-day but im not really in position to judge them strongly.

[HoarfrostHubb]

it's pretty standard for people on this board to call for torn warns before they are issued (even when they are never issued for a reason)... i think you can get a certain level of rotation without there actually being a reason to warn. maybe the nws should dedicate one employee to read the boards all day.

I figured that was the case. Some of the poster saying things like that (can't prove it, just seems to be what I recall) were some of the really knowledgeable severe guys (and gals?).

Does Norman send out all warnings? Or do local offices do it, or can either? Seemed like a very fluid situation with numerous cells, but that seems pretty common in other parts of the US

I do appreciate all of the great information that posters on here have given over the last few days on this. Made for a very memorable day.

[CT Rain]

Do the media folks ever on air say things like "They should issue a warning" for a cell? I seem to remember a couple of weeks ago some of the mid-west streams having mets saying things like that on air.

Sure if I saw something on radar I thought was a threat I'd say it.

[IsentropicLift]

I figured that was the case. Some of the poster saying things like that (can't prove it, just seems to be what I recall) were some of the really knowledgeable severe guys (and gals?).

Does Norman send out all warnings? Or do local offices do it, or can either? Seemed like a very fluid situation with numerous cells, but that seems pretty common in other parts of the US

I do appreciate all of the great information that posters on here have given over the last few days on this. Made for a very memorable day.

SPC in Norman only issues Covective outlooks, Mescoscale discussions and Watches. Its up to each NWS office to issue there own warnings. I think they got caught somewhat off guard yesterday. We knew that the paramaters were quite intense yesterday over NE, but I don't think anyone actually expected a massive (plains type) tornadic supecell over MA.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sure if I saw something on radar I thought was a threat I'd say it.

I didn't know if it promoted ill-will or anything (if that is even a consideration)

Obviously the media and private industry has some phenomenal mets and I would think the NWS would welcome additional eyes ears and minds helping out the public.

In any case, a warning can't help save property, and hopefully those injured and killed did not have that happen due to short warning times

[CT Rain]

I didn't know if it promoted ill-will or anything (if that is even a consideration)

Obviously the media and private industry has some phenomenal mets and I would think the NWS would welcome additional eyes ears and minds helping out the public.

In any case, a warning can't help save property, and hopefully those injured and killed did not have that happen due to short warning times

I wouldn't say "I can't believe there's no warning" or something like that on the air but wouldn't have a problem just telling people what it looked like... that it could produce a tornado at any time etc.

[L.B. LaForce]

Wow, I though I was the only one who noticed this yesterday..haha. But yeah, I just happened to switch over to SRV, and noticed a pretty substantial couplet on a storm that was only severe thunderstorm warned. I clicked back a few frames, and the couplet was persistent! I'm like ummm, hello? there is a 100kt+ g2g couplet here that has been blatantly obvious for the past few scans. I dont know though, mistakes do happen, so im not judging them, but at least they got the warning out.

[stellarfun]

I wouldn't say "I can't believe there's no warning" or something like that on the air but wouldn't have a problem just telling people what it looked like... that it could produce a tornado at any time etc.

It appears they weren't expecting much.

418 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A COOLER AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY AND LIGHT WARMING SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH DEVELOPED ACROSS E MA/S NH EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS E COASTAL MA/E RI THROUGH AROUND 15Z AS THEY EXIT THE COAST.

....

….FEEL ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED...OR RATHER FORCED BY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CAPE VALUES AVERAGE AROUND 2500 J/KG BY AFTN AS LAPSE RATES AT MID-LVLS WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG THETAE ADVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE H9 INVERSION. CAPE ITSELF...PER MDL SKEW-T SOUNDINGS...STILL APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY TALL AND SKINNY EMPHASIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR FROM THE DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES...AND WHETHER UPDRAFTS WILL MAINTAIN.…. ALSO FEEL THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE REDUCED AS SUCH. AS TO SHEAR...BETTER DYNAMICS RESIDE WITH THE MAIN SHRTWV MAX AND ATTENDANT H3 JET STREAK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND.

YET CANT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE LATE IN THE PERIOD. BOTH MDL SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1/0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 200 M2/S2 SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

SO TAKING ALL POINTS INTO ACCOUNT...FEEL THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTCOME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESFC COLD FRONT AS OUTLINED BY THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. MAIN THREATS FOR TODAY WILL BE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND MOST IMPORTANTLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THERE IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG MID-LVL SW FLOW RANGING AROUND 50 MPH THAT CAN EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC PER A STRONG DOWNWARD CORE OF PRECIP

445 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING BY AROUND 02Z-03Z. ANY LEFTOVER GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO W BEHIND THE FRONT

545 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...UPDATE...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE TORNADO WATCH TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF RI AS WELL AS BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH 8 PM.

750 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...HAVE UPDATED THE TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 03Z FOR MOST OF THE REGION.MOST OF ACTIVITY CONTINUES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO W MA/SWNH AT 00Z.

1004 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A BUSY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING TO SAY THE LEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LINE CONVECTION PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PRESENTLY SITUATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MID-STATE NY INTO WRN MA...NEWD INTO THE UPR CT VLY RGN. STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUALLY ADVECT WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NEWD CONVERGENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND SOME ELEVATED LIFTING SUPPORT ALOFT...WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDER CHANCES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT OPEN WATERS.

The FY 2011 NWS performance goal for tornado warning lead-time is 12 minutes.

[earthlight]

I absolutely hate criticizing the NWS meteorologists. It happens way too often, and they are the best at what they do. I have a tremendous appreciation for their work and how they do their job.

That being said, there was a good 10-15 minute period where there was a distinct couplet and rotation on radar and a reported funnel cloud and tornado---and no warning. I was shocked at that point, and the warning was eventually issued, but I am not sure what took so long.

The one thing I won't do is try to speculate as to what may have happened. I am pretty sure there was a legitimate reason as to why it wasn't issued. But I am interested to hear it. Hopefully one of the meteorologists on duty can chime in. Must have been very hectic at the office.

[Big Jims Videos]

Many of the tv Mets will explain to viewers what they are seeing on their radars. Hail size rotation etc. I know the mets at my station do that. Ive heard a few this year in the Midwest say so and so town get in your safe space becUse this is likely producing or will produce tornado and bam the warning is issued. Tv mets have a responsibility to warn public. That's their job. If they see something and are truly qualified they should warn those in a path to watch out and not have to wait for Nws warnings. Just using my radarscope radar on my iPhone I've called warnings a few minutes before they were issued. With that being said having a twister over that city with no warning well...hope there is a good explanation

[Hoosier]

I absolutely hate criticizing the NWS meteorologists. It happens way too often, and they are the best at what they do. I have a tremendous appreciation for their work and how they do their job.

That being said, there was a good 10-15 minute period where there was a distinct couplet and rotation on radar and a reported funnel cloud and tornado---and no warning. I was shocked at that point, and the warning was eventually issued, but I am not sure what took so long.

The one thing I won't do is try to speculate as to what may have happened. I am pretty sure there was a legitimate reason as to why it wasn't issued. But I am interested to hear it. Hopefully one of the meteorologists on duty can chime in. Must have been very hectic at the office.

I get tired of the perpetual NWS bashers but imo this is a perfect instance where questions should be asked. During the forecasting stage, if an office doesn't believe there's much of a tornado threat, fine, but you better be able to adjust rapidly as things are unfolding. We had a sneak event several years ago that caught everyone off guard...radar quickly lit up with numerous low-topped tornadic supercells, and although the event wasn't forecasted properly, all of the warnings were issued in time IIRC.

It's probably not good to speculate about what went on at BOX. I feel like I'm walking the line in some ways so this is my last post about it.

[ORH_wxman]

I haven't been in there in a while, but in the past, the radar system is very good at giving off any indication of a tornado. Its pretty hard to miss as it lights up a big warning and there might even be an audible warning as well when it first shows up though not 100% sure on that 2nd part.

I highly doubt it had anything to do with "they didn't think there was a tornado". My guess is it was some issue with getting the text product out a little earlier, and there could be any number of reasons for that.

[TheTrials]

Serious question, hasn't computer technology improved enough where a warning like this can be automatically issued? I am not in any way suggesting that human's be replaced but without knowing what was going on on the ground surely this cell on radar was more than capable of being tornadic and surely a computer program could figure this out and put out alerts subject to human fail safe. There was also an ASOS that reported the tornado IIRC, couldn't that automatically trigger a warning?

Just asking. No position on what happened at this NWS office.

[The Great Zo]

There was also an ASOS that reported the tornado IIRC, couldn't that automatically trigger a warning?

To clear one thing up -- an ASOS cannot report a tornado or a funnel cloud. Those are items that must be manually added by an observer at the weather station in question; they get tacked on to the RMK section of the METAR for transmission. Most airport observers are highly trained, but even then it would be hard to consider such a report to be completely infallible.

[TheTrials]

To clear one thing up -- an ASOS cannot report a tornado or a funnel cloud. Those are items that must be manually added by an observer at the weather station in question; they get tacked on to the RMK section of the METAR for transmission. Most airport observers are highly trained, but even then it would be hard to consider such a report to be completely infallible.

sorry, I knew that, and should have been more careful with the post. I believe the report was from the airport in Westfield.

[Analog96]

Serious question, hasn't computer technology improved enough where a warning like this can be automatically issued? I am not in any way suggesting that human's be replaced but without knowing what was going on on the ground surely this cell on radar was more than capable of being tornadic and surely a computer program could figure this out and put out alerts subject to human fail safe. There was also an ASOS that reported the tornado IIRC, couldn't that automatically trigger a warning?

Just asking. No position on what happened at this NWS office.

Because, for example, a lot of storms can spin up a low-level rotation signal in a non-convective event, such as a decent-sized Nor'easter. The storm may show "rotation" for a few minutes and not be anything at all. An "automated" warning service would probably put out a tornado warning for no reason in that case.

[CT Rain]

I haven't been in there in a while, but in the past, the radar system is very good at giving off any indication of a tornado. Its pretty hard to miss as it lights up a big warning and there might even be an audible warning as well when it first shows up though not 100% sure on that 2nd part.

I highly doubt it had anything to do with "they didn't think there was a tornado". My guess is it was some issue with getting the text product out a little earlier, and there could be any number of reasons for that.

That makes sense, Will. This storm may have initially fallen through the cracks because the main focus was on the Northampton supercell at the time. It may have lead to a delay of noting that second supercell was rapidly becoming tornadic plus some unforseen technical problem.

Going back and looking at the radar it seems like there was 100+ knots of g2g from about 4:15pm to 4:30 pm with the storm first west of Westfield then over Westfield.

[ORH_wxman]

That makes sense, Will. This storm may have initially fallen through the cracks because the main focus was on the Northampton supercell at the time. It may have lead to a delay of noting that second supercell was rapidly becoming tornadic plus some unforseen technical problem.

Going back and looking at the radar it seems like there was 100+ knots of g2g from about 4:15pm to 4:30 pm with the storm first west of Westfield then over Westfield.

What was the wording for the severe thunderstorm warning?...some of the severe warnings will say "there has been some weak rotation detected with this storm, while not immediately imminent, a tornado could still develop at any time" or something like that. Perhaps there was already enhanced warning in the severe storm warning. And who else knows what type of potential technical problem could arise too. But I would highly doubt they were unaware of the tightening couplet in that storm. Unless its a lot different than I remember, the radar will certainly let you know about it.

[Analog96]

What was the wording for the severe thunderstorm warning?...some of the severe warnings will say "there has been some weak rotation detected with this storm, while not immediately imminent, a tornado could still develop at any time" or something like that. Perhaps there was already enhanced warning in the severe storm warning. And who else knows what type of potential technical problem could arise too. But I would highly doubt they were unaware of the tightening couplet in that storm. Unless its a lot different than I remember, the radar will certainly let you know about it.

Right, I was wondering this, too. A lot of times when a storm is showing some rotation, they'll throw that bone into the warning for possible tornado formation.

[TheTrials]

Because, for example, a lot of storms can spin up a low-level rotation signal in a non-convective event, such as a decent-sized Nor'easter. The storm may show "rotation" for a few minutes and not be anything at all. An "automated" warning service would probably put out a tornado warning for no reason in that case.

Surely a program could look for more than just rotation such as the increasing gate-to-gate shear. What we are talking about here is fail safe/worst case scenarios where there is some error or human delay. There could also be a human overide where there is a built in delay so the warning isn't just issued and if a human cancels it obviously it doesnt go out but if its not cancelled its issued after a certain amount of time. That would cut down on false alarms and even if it wasn't as good as human analysis we are talking about lives and better safe than sorry. Just putting it out there.