The Great Zo

Just to note -- the big outbreak assessment is still in the works.

Optimism bias like this is the kind of thing that makes any meteorologist feel simply wretched on the inside -- as if tapping into mother nature's mainframe to produce exquisitely accurate warnings still would not be enough to perfectly fulfill the mission. We're scientists, so we like to think logically. Many of these statements (which are extremely common -- I think every person on the planet thinks they have their own protective storm bubble) commit cardinal sins of logical fallacy. The proposal of an evolution in warning operations is noteworthy. Quoting that section of the summary: Other people have mentioned point A, regarding perhaps separating out tornado emergency as a new product. I wonder if this proposal could encompass a bigger paradigm shift than that. Somehow, there simply has to be a higher level of warning that doesn't simultaneously render a typical tornado warning (or whatever its future analog may be) into the realm of public indifference. I am more interested, however, in point B -- impact-based rather than phenomenon-based. Something that may blur the lines between types of wind, and focuses more on the potential strength and impact instead. This was a very interesting, and very well-presented assessment. If nothing else, it expertly summarizes and spreads the word about many of the socio-meteorological issues that have arisen during 2011.