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Check this tweet out from met. Ben Noll as it actually has a prog of RONI, the first I’ve ever seen: https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1793235394219434190 ”In a warming world, it's becoming increasingly difficult to disentangle El Niño events from the climate change signal. In other words, when the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean is anomalously warm -like it was in recent months- it can be hard to distinguish the signal from the noise! The Relative Niño 3.4 Index is calculated by subtracting the tropical mean sea surface temperature anomaly (20˚N-20˚S) from the Niño 3.4 Index and multiplying by a scaling factor. The relative index describes the onset of convection better, is not contaminated by global warming, and can be monitored and forecast in real-time. This suggests that La Niña-like atmospheric patterns may build in the months ahead, likely starting before an official La Niña event is classified by most international centers. This is of significance to hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and weather patterns across the planet. ————————————— This ONI/RONI prog is from the C3S, an average of most of the major models of the world (see image below). It’s showing RONI-ONI to be -0.67 in May (near what it was in FMA) and -0.55 in Oct. Based on this graph, it’s showing a prog of ASO ONI to be ~-0.60 (weak La Niña) but ASO RONI to be ~-1.15 (moderate La Niña), a truer reflection of the predicted strength of La Niña since it is negating the surrounding tropical waters’ warming:

That's definitely part of it. I think you eventually don't see that difference once SSTs to the south warm up a bit. I also noticed (especially yesterday) modeled showed the best warmth 925-850 over that area so it makes sense why it was so warm there yesterday. Today that is more widespread.

SPC has nudged the eastern extent of the MRGL risk to the i95 corridor on the 1630z OTLK

I wonder why that little bubble from MHT down to ASH is so often ground zero for heat in the region...must be a combo of being far enough from the marine influence, at the southern flank of the MRV and at the base of the higher terrain over the interior to accentuate the downslope element..

I doubt it. We had a good cold source for many of those events. Our biggest problem is that we have no good highs that anchor north of Maine or over in Ontario. If we had that 07-08 look again, I wouldn't expect much difference at all.

That’s where I’m at, it may not quite reach strong by ONI but I would be surprised if the Niña remained weak. Whether it’s moderate or strong it should be a major pattern driver regardless.

87. We take.

Agree. I also think the average snowfall will decline earlier in more marginal climates to begin with. For example, I expect snowfall averages to start declining earlier and faster for my area than some of you guys who live more inland and north. I suspect a 2007-2008 type pattern would have worse results for my area now than it would back then, but farther north would still get hammered.

85.1 back at the ranch.

2.12" here in town. No thunder here tho. Rivers are high, as well as the lawn.

Lol

i wish the weather was like this everyday from march 1st until november 1st. then boom immediate fall and winter, repeat

Check this tweet out from met. Ben Noll as it actually has a prog of RONI! https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1793235394219434190 ”In a warming world, it's becoming increasingly difficult to disentangle El Niño events from the climate change signal. In other words, when the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean is anomalously warm -like it was in recent months- it can be hard to distinguish the signal from the noise! The Relative Niño 3.4 Index is calculated by subtracting the tropical mean sea surface temperature anomaly (20˚N-20˚S) from the Niño 3.4 Index and multiplying by a scaling factor. The relative index describes the onset of convection better, is not contaminated by global warming, and can be monitored and forecast in real-time. This suggests that La Niña-like atmospheric patterns may build in the months ahead, likely starting before an official La Niña event is classified by most international centers. This is of significance to hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean and weather patterns across the planet. ————————————— This is the first time I’ve ever seen a model prog for RONI! It is the C3S, an average of most of the major models of the world. (See image below) It’s showing RONI-ONI to be -0.67 in May (near what it was FMA) and -0.55 in Oct. Based on this graph, it’s showing a prog of ASO ONI to be ~-0.60 (weak La Niña) but ASO RONI to be ~-1.15 (moderate La Niña), a truer reflection of the predicted strength of La Niña since it is negating the surrounding tropical waters’ warming:

Stay......safe?

Indeed, just a stray chance for something. Wife and I plan on taking the boat out for the first time Friday afternoon. Should be glorious.

Sunny and 82 at 11:50am.

At least over this way Friday looks spectacular with full sun and lowering humidity. Almost a zero percent chance of rain. Edit: CTP doesn't necessarily agree with the above statement. LOL

a bit cooler right along the coast but probably more like 60s. 70s to near 80 just inland

They are Enhanced a bit but they were very visible to the naked eye including greens, reds, and individual pillars. The glow got fairly bright and started to dim the effect of the moon at one point.

Eighteen minutes before Nooners: Brilliant sunshine and 81°F. Hoping for a rough storm this afternoon/evening.

I would like to get away from an engineering based scale and back to a scientific meteorological based one. When do you think we will be able to get accurate wind speeds based on radar so we don't need a damage based scale and have one based on actual wind speeds like we have with hurricanes?

The Bremen area was ef5

Up up we go

I was gonna say the same thing. It seems like an act to me. He's probably laughing when he types that crazy stuff.

Got to be some sort of trolling routine....